Friday, December 4, 2009

The Romer Curve Update: December

As we are wont to do each month when the Employment Summary is released we present the actual to the Romer curves from January. It is one of those things a Director would do at a Board Meeting to remind the other Directors of the less than sterling work on the part of some of the management. However with Sarbanes Oxley I suspect that Director would do it once and if that Management person were not terminated the Director would be duty bound to resign. Well we can't seem to do that with Government types.

The BLS states:

"The unemployment rate edged down to 10.0 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-11,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. In the prior 3 months, payroll job losses had averaged 135,000 a month. In November, employment fell in construction, manufacturing, and information, while temporary help services and health care added jobs."

We now show below the data plotted against the Romer model that she distributed last January. The data speaks for itself.


















The chart below shows the error between budget and actual.