Monday, May 3, 2010

Google, Disintermediation and the Set Top Box

The Wall Street Journal indicates that Google will introduce a set top box based upon Android. This is an interesting and very important move. It will cause a disintermediation of the cable and other broadband channels allowing the consumer to select content via the Internet rather than from what the cable companies purvey.

For decades the cable companies have argued, with merit in the early days, that without the bundling of content and transport there would be no broad base of content. Yet today much of the content is collecting money from those who never watch it, namely most cable customers are charged for ESPN and other sports channels even though they may never watch a single event. That is just a simple example.

Today a technically competent person can deploy a computer and then add software and then manipulate the reception of content. Yet if this can be accomplished via a single remote controlled box the barrier to entry is gone. The market explodes.

This then adds to the Internet neutrality battle. We have been arguing that video will explode in this decade. Video as content, video as communications, and video as social media; all three. How will cable handle this? Most likely led by the troglodytes at Comcast one would expect by litigation at the drop of a hat. Will the FCC have any role? Doubtful since they have a dismal record of doing anything that complies with the Courts.

Thus where does this leave the consumer. It is akin to the Trusts of the late 19th century. A few heavy handed folks controlling content via their networks. Will the Broadband gifts from the current Administration have any effect? No, they were given to places where there were no people for the most part.

As the WSJ states:

The technology—designed to open set-top boxes, TVs and other devices to more content from the Internet—is attracting interest from partners that include Sony Corp., Intel Corp. and Logitech International SA, which are expected to offer products that support the software, these people said. ...Google.. is currently planning on sharing some details about the technology with more than 3,000 developers expected to attend its Google I/O conference in ... May ...One person familiar with the matter cautioned the company could also decide to delay discussing it until the technology is more mature. Google uses the annual conference to showcase a range of technologies of interest to developers.

The Washington Post speaks of the FCC head and his uncertainty as follows:

The chairman of the Federal Communications Commission has indicated he wants to keep broadband services deregulated, according to sources, even as a federal court decision has exposed weaknesses in the agency's ability to be a strong watchdog over the companies that provide access to the Web...The sources said Genachowski thinks "reclassifying" broadband to allow for more regulation would be overly burdensome on carriers and would deter investment. But they said he also thinks the current regulatory framework would lead to constant legal challenges to the FCC's authority every time it attempted to pursue a broadband policy....

Thus where this battle will go is still uncertain. As we have argued before it may become a civil case.