Sunday, December 12, 2010

Global Warming Guys at it Again?

The NASA global warming guys are at it again. They state:

How did we get record-breaking November warmth in the middle of a strong La Niña that would normally cool global temperatures ...?  Is the answer the Arctic sea ice death spiral 2010; And is the loss of Arctic sea ice also responsible for the frigid European temperatures.

They continue:

However, we note in our Reviews of Geophysics paper in press that the few years just prior to 2009-2010, with low Arctic sea ice, did not produce cold winters in Europe. The cold winter of 2009-2010 was associated with the most extreme Arctic Oscillation in the period of record. Figure 3, from our paper in press, shows that 7 of the last 10 European winters were warmer than the 1951-1980 average winter, and 10 of the past 10 summers were warmer than climatology. The average warming of European winters is at least as large as the average warming of summers, but it is less noticeable because of the much greater variability in winter.

Finally, we point out in Figure 3 the anomalous summer warmth in 2003 and 2010, summers that were associated with extreme events centered in France and Moscow. If the warming trend that is obvious in that figure continues, as is expected if greenhouse gases continue to increase, such extremes will become common within a few decades.

The problem is that apparently these are the same folks who ranted during the disclosure of the emails which also apparently seemed to discredit the whole process. One wonders what the truth really is, or perhaps when one looks at a random process over such a small interval and bets on the noise one is all too likely to lose.

Yet as the Economist notes, the real issue here is income distribution:

There is also, as outlined in the Copenhagen accord, a new fund for climate finance that will benefit from some of the $100 billion dollars in “long-term finance” that the agreements see flowing from north to south every year by 2020. In a compromise between likely donors and recipients, this fund will not be directly under the control of the parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, but instead run by an independent board. The World Bank will function as a trustee for the fund, but in a way as yet to be fully defined.

In those two respects—a lot of compromise between developed and developing countries, and a number of details to be filled in at a later date—the fund agreement is typical of Cancún’s achievements.

The countries burning their forests will get paid not to by the US which is growing more trees.  One should ask when this insanity will stop. As the US Debt tops its GDP we wonder where this will take us?