Saturday, January 15, 2011

CPI, PPI, Productivity and Labor Costs

The CPI and PPI are shown above.  We can see the dip in both at the bottom of the recession and we can also see clearly the rapid expansion just before the burst. Also not the PPI seems to be getting above the trend line again indicating upward price pressure seems to be returning. However the CPI remains below the trend line perhaps for reasons we will see later.


 The above is the annualized changes in PPI and CPI and we have plotted a six month running average. PPI has remained at a positive growth level for the past year and runs about 5% over that period. CPI appears to be lower.
 The productivity indices for business and manufacturing are shown above. We see a continued rise in manufacturing. This is most likely a clear indicator of systemic unemployment in a bloated manufacturing sector. Business is also high.
Finally above we show the unit costs in business and manufacturing. We can see the build up to the burst and then the drop. Manufacturing has dropped a bit and business and manufacturing are now on a par.