Thursday, December 15, 2011

Employment Factors

It is worth a review of some of the recent economic data regarding employment. First the chart above looks at the actual data to the Romer projections. It is clear that no matter how much we may have improved we are still way off from where the projections said we would be. This should be a continuing concern especially as regards to what any economist says about anything.





The above is a measure of the errors and we see the growth in what we should have seen with the recovery. The problem is that the variance from the projected recovery is widening.




This is the difference in percent from what was projected and we see a 30-35% difference. Not surprising despite the trillions spent. In fact one should understand that the payroll tax cut is simply not charging working folks for their Social Security, a loss in some $300 billion in revenue! Consider the almost $300 billion in unemployment insurance and we see almost all of the trillion we are off.




The above is the difference in employment from 2005 to the present. Growth is in Government and Medical/Education, essential Government, with some in professional. Construction and manufacturing are all down.




The above is the growth rates for those slower segments. They are at best about 1-2% pa, well below any reasonable level.




The above is the growth for construction as well. There is some growth in mining.



The above shows the percent of the population employed, and we see it remaining well below what we had before the recession. It demonstrates no material change in employment. In fact the unemployment using the 2006 base is still above 12% not the 8.6% stated by the Government.



This chart above is thus the essential one to watch and it still shows a sustained unemployment.