Friday, August 3, 2012

Employment July 2012

Things just do not seem to be getting better. This month we hit 8.3% unemployment but as usual the details matter. Let us review them.
First the above is the Romer Curve. Remember that on Saturday January 11, 2009 she released from the new Administration web site what their efforts would do. We continue to be amazed as to the variance from reality. Again so much for economists! They must be the same people who did estimates for the Big Dig in Boston, $2B versus $40B actual!
The above shows the variance and it is clearly growing in a never ending manner. Confusion, uncertainty, more costs, all add up to no growth. And the Administration has no clue!

The above shows a glimmer of hope. The percent employed is still ate the same level as the past few months. Yet the unemployment increases but the base unemployment has dropped a bit. We may just be looking at noise however at this stage. Stagnation is at play.
The above shows the gap which we need to fill. It is that 8-10 million people permanently unemployed and no hope in sight.
The above shows the actual unemployed increasing which is a serious concern. It is not two years from the alleged summer of recovery.
Finally another glimpse of good news, the net jobs did keep the increase in employable at work, thus only 8.3%

We see a return of the Recession late this Fall and this just assures that now.