Friday, April 2, 2010

The Saga of the Romer Curve

The Romer curve continues. We are still at 9.7% unemployment as stated by DoL.

However they also state the following:

In March, the number of unemployed persons was little changed at 15.0 million, and the unemployment rate remained at 9.7 percent. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (10.0 percent), adult women (8.0 percent), teenagers (26.1 percent), whites (8.8 percent), blacks (16.5 percent), and Hispanics (12.6 percent) showed little or no change in March. The jobless rate for Asians was 7.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) increased by 414,000 over the month to 6.5 million. In March, 44.1 percent of unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more. (See table A-12.)

This is a somewhat concerning discussion especially when one considers the number of long term unemployed is increasing. This may readily mean that the actual rate is substantially higher. We have done that analysis earlier and suspect it to be the same. True unemployment we estimate is still well above 12%.