Saturday, April 17, 2021

NJ 2021 04 17

 Again we begin with the normalized incidence. One should remember that the over 60 group is now almost 75% immunized so the incidence is amongst the younger 18-30 year olds. Anecdotal evidence regarding the "Spring Break" in Florida attributes the crowd to people having their relief checks and not college students who had no spring breaks. Interesting speculation and if true the Government seems to be incentivizing the spread! Not at all surprising however. Now the data:

Here we show the clear ongoing rise in daily incidence normalized by the vulnerable base. In fact the driver seems to coincided with check releases! Perhaps that is what is happening in Michigan. Vaccinations continue to rise. Also as we have noted repeatedly we anticipate annual updates as with flu shots so no surprise there.
The town doubling time has started up again. But well from where it should be!
However there are towns with excellent doubling times.
The new per day seems to be dropping but again we should normalize.
The prevalence in the town is 60 and is still high.
However state doubling is at or above 200 which is good.
State new has popped up again
whereas county is dropping.
Death rates are still quite low.


Friday, April 16, 2021

Tracking Variants

 We have argued for months that variant tracking must be done. However as the NY Times reports:

The White House on Friday announced an almost $2 billion plan for expanding and improving the nation’s ability to track coronavirus variants, an effort that public health experts have said is desperately needed to fight against variants that could drive another wave or potentially undermine the effectiveness of vaccines. More than half of the funding, $1 billion, would go to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and states to monitor those variants by examining positive virus test samples. The tracking relies on genome sequencing, in which researchers read every genetic letter in a coronavirus’s genome to find out whether the virus belongs to a known lineage or is an entirely new variant with new mutations. That money will be steered to the collection of samples and sequencing, then sharing the data with health officials and scientists, the White House said. The C.D.C. has so far leaned heavily on commercial laboratories to conduct that work.

 Namely the Government is making two fatal mistakes.

1. They are relying on the CDC. The CDC has repeatedly demonstrated their gross incompetence across this pandemic. Instead using a network of commercial labs is essential and it is currently working. Why stop something that is working and give it to a demonstrably incompetent group.

2. The data should be public in a public open data set.  Again no CDC. Remember the CDC grossly messed up the system to obtain vaccines. Keep them away from data. Do not limit access to select groups. In today's world, data must be open and anyone can analyze it. Government should try a little to be transparent. 

This proposal is just another step in fumbling the ball. The CDC is the problem and not the solution.

Wednesday, April 14, 2021

Vaccine Issues

 

The recent concerns about the adenovirus vector vaccine and clotting is of some interest. The above is the classic clotting mechanism as studied in First Year Med School. In reality it is much more complex but the above gives some insight. The problem is that not everyone is the same and small genetic differences can exacerbate clotting, namely reduce or increase it.

Several articles in NEJM have recounted clinical evidence. The first notes:

Vaccination with ChAdOx1 nCov-19 can result in the rare development of immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia mediated by platelet-activating antibodies against PF4, which clinically mimics autoimmune heparin-induced thrombocytopenia.

and the second notes:

We report findings in five patients who presented with venous thrombosis and thrombocytopenia 7 to 10 days after receiving the first dose of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 adenoviral vector vaccine against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). The patients were health care workers who were 32 to 54 years of age. All the patients had high levels of antibodies to platelet factor 4–polyanion complexes; however, they had had no previous exposure to heparin. Because the five cases occurred in a population of more than 130,000 vaccinated persons, we propose that they represent a rare vaccine-related variant of spontaneous heparin-induced thrombocytopenia that we refer to as vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia.

It appears that a specific Ab is the cause. We had addressed this issue a while back. The issue then is; doe we now tests for the Ab factor or do we try to find what the adenovirus does to start the thrombotic chain? 

Monday, April 12, 2021

Prior Planning Prevents Poor Performance

 

We have been noting several facts over the past year which together present a plant going forward:

1. The virus can be mitigated by vaccines. Namely the initial WT virus. It appears that the vaccines are also reasonable against the variants.

2. Mutations occur most in immunocompromised individuals and they should have been vaccinated first. Not so much it appears. But it is not just in the US but globally. For example malaria does impact the immune system thus plasmodium infected persons can present as pools for mutations and variant production.

3. Vaccines prevent infection. Namely if a person is subjected to a viral assault the virus in the lungs is attacked. That is where it is active at 98F. However the virus in the nasal passages at 94F is dormant and can spread. It would not mutate but it could infect an un-vaccinated person.

4. We MUST track the variants and we MUST modify the mRNAs to target them as they are identified

5. Vaccinations must become periodic. This is NOT a ONE-OFF approach. Like flue vaccines but even more so they must be addressed periodically.

6. International travelers MUST be traced and tested for carriers status. We did this a century ago and it worked. We must accept this to prevent variant introduction.

Overall this is very doable but the concern is that the CDC is a political organization not it appears a competent public health entity. Politics seems to be dominating the overall process. It must change.

Finally, being somewhat expert in wireless, 5G did not cause the pandemic and 5G is not tracking those of us vaccinated. The Government has much better ways they are using already!

Sunday, April 11, 2021

End of a Galaxy

 

From NASA, not with a whimper but with a bang!

Saturday, April 10, 2021

NJ 2021 04 10

 One must be careful in interpreting the data since we now have 50% immunized via on or more vaccine injections and those already infected. This is best seen below. This is the incidence on the basis of the vulnerable. The rate is increasing. This is a new peak. Unfortunately the CDC and other Administration entities seem to grossly neglect this effect. The death rate is dropping as we have vaccinated the older and vulnerable but the incidence is climbing as younger and recklessly careless people propagate. The seem to not be aware of the sequellae that they will have to deal with. This is a Public Health disaster.


Moreover by this time we have adequate demographic data on the new infections to target that group. Regrettably no Government entity is identifying and communicating this. Instead we seem to be playing with politics. Below we have another view:
The immunizations carry on at a good pace. Unfortunately the J&J vaccine was destroyed by what appears to be the incompetence of a Government contractor.
The town doubling time has decreased again. This is a micro example of young spreaders.
The doubling times should be well above 200 but as we can see that is hardly the case.
Yet we seem to know the hot spots and they remain so!
The State incidence seems to have peaked but as we noted this is not factual since the base has halved. Thus a comparable incidence would be twice what we show! Thus the highest ever!
The same holds for the county. I still have no idea if the spikes make any sense!
Death rates are still dropping as would be expected with a younger population.
State prevalence is increasing!
As is county prevalence.