Showing posts with label Press. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Press. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 16, 2021

Must Read the Fine Print

The NY Times again made the blunder of failing to read the fine print, again. As we noted there was an aberrant jump of more than 400 cases in one day in Montville, NJ. If they wondered why they should have read the County site which said:

Montville's increase in cases is due to lab error and will need further investigation.

This was a quadrupling of the number of cases in one day  and a tripling of the County rate in one day. Thus the Times statement:

Morris County is at an extremely high risk level.

 is clearly false. This is an ongoing example of the gross incompetence in my opinion of the press. When something does not make sense, check it out. 

The basic dictum of science and even medicine is "Trust no one" always check for yourself. And if something looks strange then it may very well be wrong, or you may have just won a Nobel Prize.  Usually the former.

Thursday, April 30, 2020

Keep the Folks Terrified

The NY Times seems to have taken the role of the promoter of abject terror amidst this pandemic. The most reckless one in my opinion is the current article stating that a vaccine will not be available until May 2036. Yes, you heard it, shelter in place for the next sixteen years!

Perhaps the Pulitzer Prize winner should glance at the pictures in Nature. They are cartoon like and may be simple enough for the writer.

Let's take AIDS/HIV. AZT came out in 1987 just 7 years after the Air Canada Patient Zero started his spreading around. That was on top of the fact that the basic science was still in its infancy. David Baltimore had done seminal work on reverse transcriptase but was sidelined by Congressman Dingell in the Congressman's pursuit of haughty scientists. Imagine if there were no Dingell, but I leave that to the imagination.

So from the first infection to the FDA approval was seven years, yet it was not really till 1985 that the epidemic hit full steam.

Go back to polio, for those of us old enough to be part of the Salk vaccine children, that took just a couple of years.

Now what in God's name will take 16 years? Lots of graphics but in my opinion and in my experience no real facts.

This will reverberate for a while and add another layer of terror, perhaps another Pulitzer....

Wednesday, July 4, 2018

Propaganda in Today's World

Edward Bernays wrote a book called Propaganda in 1928. Bernays was a part of the Wilson Propaganda machine in WW I called the US Committee on Public Information, CPI, the original "fake news" outlet of the US. An entity funded by taxpayer dollars and ultimately directed by and for Wilson.

Bernays notes:

Modern propaganda is a consistent, enduring effort to create or shape events to influence the relations of the public to an enterprise, idea or group. This practice of creating circumstances and of creating pictures in the minds of millions of persons is very common.

Virtually no important undertaking is now carried on without it, whether the enterprise be building a cathedral, endowing a university, marketing a moving picture, floating a large bond issue, or electing a president. Sometimes the effect on the public is created by a professional propagandist, sometimes by an amateur deputed for the job.

The important thing is that it is universal and continuous; and in its sum total it is regimenting the public mind every bit as much as an army regiments the bodies of its soldiers. So vast are the numbers of minds which can be regimented, and so tenacious are they when regimented, that a group at times offers an irresistible pressure before which legislators, editors, and teachers are helpless.

The group will cling to its stereotypes, as Walter Lippmann calls it, making of those supposedly powerful beings, the leaders of public opinion, mere bits of driftwood in the surf. When an Imperial Wizard, sensing what is perhaps hunger for an ideal, offers a picture of a nation all Nordic and nationalistic, the common man of the older American stock, feeling himself elbowed out of his rightful position and prosperity by the newer immigrant stocks, grasps the picture which fits in so neatly with his prejudices, and makes it his own.

He buys the sheet and pillowcase costume, and bands with his fellows by the thousand into a huge group powerful enough to swing state elections and to throw a ponderous monkey wrench into a national convention. In our present social organization approval of the public is essential to any large undertaking. Hence a laudable movement may be lost unless it impresses itself on the public mind. Charity, as well as business, and politics and literature, for that matter, have had to adopt propaganda, for the public must be regimented into giving money just as it must be regimented into tuberculosis prophylaxis.

The Near East Relief, the Association for the Improvement of the Condition of the Poor of New York, and all the rest, have to work on public opinion just as though they had tubes of toothpaste to sell. We are proud of our diminishing infant death rate—and that too is the work of propaganda. Propaganda does exist on all sides of us, and it does change our mental pictures of the world. Even if this be unduly pessimistic—and that remains to be proved—the opinion reflects a tendency that is undoubtedly real. …

Bernays then continues to note Propaganda more closely in Politics. He states:

The great political problem in our modern democracy is how to induce our leaders to lead. The dogma that the voice of the people is the voice of God tends to make elected persons the will-less servants of their constituents. This is undoubtedly part cause of the political sterility of which certain American critics constantly complain.

No serious sociologist any longer believes that the voice of the people expresses any divine or specially wise and lofty idea. The voice of the people expresses the mind of the people, and that mind is made up for it by the group leaders in whom it believes and by those persons who understand the manipulation of public opinion. It is composed of inherited prejudices and symbols and cliches and verbal formulas supplied to them by the leaders.

Fortunately, the sincere and gifted politician is able, by the instrument of propaganda, to mold and form the will of the people. Disraeli cynically expressed the dilemma, when he said: “I must follow the people. Am I not their leader?” He might have added: “I must lead the people. Am I not their servant?” Unfortunately, the methods of our contemporary politicians, in dealing with the public, are as archaic and ineffective as the advertising methods of business in 1900 would be today. While politics was the first important department of American life to use propaganda on a large scale, it has been the slowest in modifying its propaganda methods to meet the changed conditions of the public mind. American business first learned from politics the methods of appealing to the broad public.

But it continually improved those methods in the course of its competitive struggle, while politics clung to the old formulas. The political apathy of the average voter, of which we hear so much, is undoubtedly due to the fact that the politician does not know how to meet the conditions of the public mind. He cannot dramatize himself and his platform in terms which have real meaning to the public. Acting on the fallacy that the leader must slavishly follow, he deprives his campaign of all dramatic interest. An automaton cannot arouse the public interest. A leader, a fighter, a dictator, can. But, given our present political conditions under which every office seeker must cater to the vote of the masses, the only means by which the born leader can lead is the expert use of propaganda. Whether in the problem of getting elected to office or in the problem of interpreting and popularizing new issues, or in the problem of making the day-to-day administration of public affairs a vital part of the community life, the use of propaganda, carefully adjusted to the mentality of the masses, is an essential adjunct of political life. The successful businessman today apes the politician. He has adopted the glitter and the ballyhoo of the campaign. He has set up all the sideshows.

He has annual dinners that are a compendium of speeches, flags, bombast, stateliness, pseudo-democracy slightly tinged with paternalism. On occasion he doles out honors to employees, much as the republic of classic times rewarded its worthy citizens. But these are merely the sideshows, the drums, of big business, by which it builds up an image of public service, and of honorary service.

This is but one of the methods by which business stimulates loyal enthusiasms on the part of directors, the workers, the stockholders and the consumer public. It is one of the methods by which big business performs its function of making and selling products to the public. The real work and campaign of business consists of intensive study of the public, the manufacture of products based on this study, and exhaustive use of every means of reaching the public. Political campaigns today are all sideshows, all honors, all bombast, glitter, and speeches. These are for the most part unrelated to the main business of studying the public scientifically, of supplying the public with party, candidate, platform, and performance, and selling the public these ideas and products. Politics was the first big business in America. Therefore there is a good deal of irony in the fact that business has learned everything that politics has to teach, but that politics has failed to learn very much from business methods of mass distribution of ideas and products.

Now we can examine how this is being tried in New Jersey. The Hill notes[1]:

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is approving a bill that dedicates $5 million to strengthen local media outlets in the state. The state legislature passed the "Civic Info Bill" late last month, …. The bill created the Civic Information Consortium — a unique nonprofit developed with five universities — to promote the spread of news and information throughout the state. The bill was conceived by the Free Press Action Fund, an advocacy group on media issues.

The effort is led by The College of New Jersey, Montclair State University, the New Jersey Institute of Technology, Rowan University and Rutgers University. The consortium will share the $5 million with local news organizations, emphasizing "underserved communities, low-income communities and communities of color," the Free Press Action Fund said. The money was included in the fiscal 2019 budget, which Murphy signed into law on Sunday. He is expected to formally sign the legislation creating the consortium soon.

One must ask:

1. Given the exploding tax burden on New Jersey residents, why this now?

2. As with any Government program it is a camel's nose in the tent. It is $5 million now and $500 million soon!

3. Having Universities "control" the money means that in New Jersey, politically hand picked "academic" often with allegiance to the powers that be get to create and support Propaganda! Remember Bernays.

4. The idea was conceived it is stated by what in my opinion, based on my experience, is a far left wing organization in DC. Why did they do this and for whose benefit.

Frankly in my opinion this makes the Wilson era CPI look like a kindergarten exercise.

Monday, March 12, 2018

Information and the Press


The public dialog on news thus far seem to focus on the news media and its attempts at veracity. One should remember that the so-called news media have rarely been unbiased and open. I often recall that in my youth, the late 1940s, New York City had a multiplicity of daily newspapers. There was one for any political stance one took. There was the NY Times, the Post (a rather strongly leaning leftist paper), the News (a somewhat right leaning), the Tribune, the Telegraph, and many smaller and even narrowly focused papers. One could see individuals reading their news of choice on the subway, and thus political opinions were readily displayed in public if one understood the code.

The Chart

Let me begin with a comment on the Otero chart[1]. Like any generalization, one must first understand the generator of such a paradigm. Thus who is Otero and what is her "agenda", for all people have some agenda to promote. As the author notes:

I’m a practicing patent attorney in the Denver, Colorado area, and I have a B.A. in English from UCLA and a J.D. from the University of Denver. I’m not a journalist by training, and I don’t claim to be one. So why should you listen to me about the quality of news sources? You shouldn’t. In fact, you shouldn’t listen to anyone who tells you that you should think or believe a certain thing a certain way. But you’ve come to my site to find out what I have to say about the news anyway, so I’ll lay out a few reasons why you could choose to value my assessments. Consider them and then determine for yourself whether this information is valuable to you.

Before moving on to a detailed discussion of information, this Otero charts is worthy of some study. It in many ways attempts to be a paradigm that allows one to asses where certain sources of information lie.

First, the author presents a set of terms all of which lack any definition. One must bring their own inferences to bear on this table. For example one may ask what the difference is between analytical and complex. The issue of liberal versus conservative also begs the question of definition, especially as we can see this at extremes but not in a full spectrum. The author belies the training they allege, namely as a patent attorney, wherein one must have clear definitions just to begin. This table has none.

Second, in placing entities in this grid one must ask; by what criteria has the author made these placements? Apparently it is by the author's sole judgement and there is no factual basis presented, no metrics, no detailed analyses. If one were to accept this analysis then one should also expect if not demand a basis for the placements. For example, Croly's New Republic is left off this list. That to me would be a major fact, for Croly was in a sense one of the God parents of present day Progressive thought.

Third, one must ask why in reading any of these, if not all, can one gain information, can one sift through the desiderata presented and, as the author says, obtain something of value. Even if we grant that the chart has some value, we must ask if an individual's value maps isomorphically onto this paradigm.

Fourth, why should we delimit our access to the news, namely allegedly imminent information, based upon the opinion of anyone? The author admits that. If so, then why is this chart of any value?

Fifth, people are individuals, and the media presented in the chart tend to attempt to cluster people in groups. We all have biases, they are all too often the product of our environment and many may even be genetically based, yet the true source of bias is yet to be fully understood. However biases can be reinforced by "group think" or by the "echo chamber" effect.

Sixth, the author seems to delimit the media to mostly US based, with the exceptions of the Guardian, BBC, Economist. Anyone truly interested in obtaining information would include such voices as RT, Sputnik, Deutsche Welle, the Jerusalem Post, Le Monde, China Daily, and the list goes on. Information must be sifted and compared. In today's Internet environment an individual's news feed, that is the actual sources not some pre-filtered Facebook edition, should provide daily access to a multiplicity of sources. Each source will have its own bias and examining many will in a sense filter out or average out the extreme biases.

Definitions: Information and its Elements

Let me then return to Otero's last statement as noted previously above:

"whether this information is valuable to you"

This begs several questions. First what is information? Is it just a recantation of facts; for example the number of hogs in the US on June 1 2017. At noon precisely. Or is it the reporting of what people are saying, such as Government officials or un-named sources? Or is it the presentation of certain facts and an analysis of those facts. Such as the number of hogs by day at noon in Iowa for three years? This would be a trend and there may be consequences from the trend. Or is it the opinion of some person or persons? Information as we understand it is a complex issue. It is not just facts, it is an interpretation of those facts. It is also a ranking of facts and their interpretation in a way which may be of value to the public. That leads to the second issue; value. What is value? Knowing that a company is near bankruptcy may be of value if I know it before others and if I can act upon it. That they is financial value. Value may also accrue if I know that a certain politician has an incapacitating health problem which would delimit their abilities to act in the interest of the country, such as was the case of Wilson after his stroke, and perhaps as was the case of FDR after his fourth election victory.

Is information active and goal directed or is it just a passive compilation of non-valued facts? Information may be like some sports score, valuable only for personal enjoyment, or it may be like horse race results capable of being a basis for handicapping races and betting accordingly. Is the passive non goal directed information real information or just entertainment? Does information have to be of some goal directed nature?

News versus Information versus Opinion

As we noted, Information is the presentation of facts and an assessment of these facts to present a set of reasonable conclusions. In a sense, Information is akin to what an expert witness would do in a Court of Law. First the expert or reporter, would be identified and their bona fides made available. Anonymity would be denied. Then the expert or reporter would present a set of facts all of which would be verifiable. The facts then become a basis of the web which is woven to present the story the reporter presents. Unlike an Expert, however, who may use their ow professional opinion, a reporter has no right to an opinion when reporting on the facts. That is why in a classic newspaper the information is separated physically from the opinions. This classic separation has disappeared in all newspapers as of today.

News is a subset of information. The distinction is its immediacy. Information is not time sensitive. Historians are purveyors of information. Information which has a true sense of immediacy takes on the rubric of news and the reporter then is the assembler of this type of information we would call news.

Propaganda versus News

The classic work by Bernays on Propaganda was written in 1928, a decade after he and others were involved in the Government entities supporting Wilson's War efforts. Wilson used Propaganda as described by Bernays to promote and support his ideas and this was actually accomplished via a Government office.

As Bernays notes:

The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country.
We are governed, our minds molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of. This is a logical result of the way in which our democratic society is organized. Vast numbers of human beings must cooperate in this manner if they are to live together as a smoothly functioning society. Our invisible governors are, in many cases, unaware of the identity of their fellow members in the inner cabinet. They govern us by their qualities of natural leadership, their ability to supply needed ideas and by their key position in the social structure. Whatever attitude one chooses toward this condition, it remains a fact that in almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number…

Read the first sentence very carefully. He is not talking about the debate in the Federalist Papers, but outright manipulation. He is speaking from experience. He is also speaking as a prophet as to what will come in but a short time in Germany, and perhaps in today's world. The question is; who does the propagandizing and who decides what people must think?

Let me give another example. One could ask if Edward R Morrow was a propagandist for Roosevelt to get the US to enter the War with Britain. The basis for such a supposition has some merit but not enough to make it a certitude. Yet what Morrow did was in a sense propaganda. He met the Bernays results, using facts, news if you will. News during WW II was as much propaganda as anything else. Likewise the new during Vietnam turned on the Government and became counter-propaganda.

Quality: An Amalgam of Value and Trust

But information must be quality information. What do we mean by quality and especially quality information. We argue that quality is an amalgam of value and trust. Let me explain.

Silicon Valley has emerged as a source of profit for many of those who are affiliated with it. But what is it really worth? What value does Silicon Valley types and their products provide? This is the question as to what do we mean by value in our society. An adjunct of value is the concept of trust. I was introduced to this concept as a critical element in a stable society by the late Dave Staelin, a former teacher and colleague. I thought that value was a sine qua non, but Dave convinced me that trust was equally if not more so an element in what we see as a productive element in a stable society.

Now what do we mean by value, and in turn what do we mean by trust. Value means potentially many things to many people. There is the concept of personal values. Namely what does a person hold dear to them, what are their metrics of judgement of themselves and their surroundings. One may hold altruism as a value, humility as a value, cleanliness as a value. Then there is the construct of values of a society. Namely such things as the right of free speech and the right to practice a faith. Then there may be the value of one's individualism, the sanctity of individual rights. Then too is the value inherent in some artifact. An auto has value in that it takes us from one place to another quickly, reliably, and with less human exertion. We can assign a simple measure to that value by how much it costs us and what we get in return for that cost.

Our interest is in that latter definition, a concept of economic or societal value. Thus we may ask what value some new technology brings forth. Let us take a computer, a personal computer, as an example. We may ask; what value does it have to a person? to me? to society? Obviously it may allow me to type better, write faster, calculate more accurately. However, there may be externalities that reduce the value. It may allow me to do more, but then I no longer need a typist, thus I have increased its value to me and reduced it to them. Thus how does one ascertain value; to the person or to the group. If I were a Marxist I would be focusing on the value of the labor as a input to the building of the computer rather that what it does for the user of the computer.

Thus to simplify the analysis I will use value as what added benefit accrues to the individual who employs the entity which purportedly conveys the value. Thus the value of a personal computer, the value of Goggle search, the value of Uber, will all be judged in the context of the user first and then society second. It would seem to be easier to perform such a task.

Before continuing let me address the issue of trust, and its adjunct, quality. Something, an instrument of some type, has value to a person because the individual can use it the instrument to perform some task for which the instrument was designed and for which the representation one relied upon at the time of its acquisition would be correct. Namely it does what is was supposed to do. One relies upon a representation by a purveyor, not only that the instrument functions as it was supposed to but that if it does not there will be a remedy. The combination of value with trust, namely its concatenation, results in the concept of quality. Namely if one obtains something that adds value and one can trust its delivering value, trust, then one has a quality experience, and quality adheres to this overall process. Value adheres to the instrument and trust to the purveyor. Quality adheres to the concatenation of both.

Let me give a current example and counter example. Let us assume I purchase a product from Amazon, say a chain saw. I need the item to remove trees. Thus it must cut wood while providing reasonable safety. The instrument must start, function as specified, and not wear out in an untimely manner. It must also have a modicum of safety. Now if I were to purchase from Amazon and they represent that they sell it to me, then I have value and I have trust, namely if it does not work Amazon will remediate the purchase. On the other hand if Amazon just presents the product and a third party actually is the purveyor, I do not know then and there is no trust. The transaction has no quality. You see one needs both value and trust. This is the Staelin construct again. Let me give another example. This time Google. I am seeking information about some health related matter, say a physician who can care for a certain ailment. Does Google provide value? Yes, it may give me a list from which I could then address and seek what I am looking for. Do I trust Google? That is a good question. Trust in this case means if I ask for a physician expert in dealing with the specific ailment, then I assume that Google will present all the options, the alternatives. I assume or trust that Google will not filter out physicians whom they do not like, are not acceptable to Google. How do I know this? As with the Amazon case it is by experience. I am pragmatic, I rely upon experience, mine and others. This works until it does not work. Then pragmatically trust is lost, and near impossible to get back.

Thus, if Amazon fronts for a poor third party vendor and as a consumer I am scammed, then I am wary of everything on Amazon. I move to Walmart. If I find out Google refuses to, for example, list any physician who is a registered Republican, then I become wary of Google across the board. Trust is lost and a key part of the quality equation is vitiated. The instrument no longer has quality and thus I seek an alternative.

Let is leave trust aside for a moment and focus on value. Value has a philosophical as well as economic understanding. We somehow wish to address the amalgam of the two. We want to do this for the development of technological implements. Thus the instrument may be a new cancer immunotherapy, a new computer processor, a new water desalination technique, a new way to remove carbon dioxide from an exhaust, or a new app. What is the value we would ascribe? Economically we would project cash flows from an anticipated market. But there is also societal value as well. A new app may generate cash but would have minimal societal value. In fact it may be a value destroyer. Namely a person would defer a productive action while expending time on the useless app.

Thus we look at value as both economic and societal. Yet can we monetize this? Namely can we make a pari passu comparison? Let me defer that for a moment. The above simple example does show we have value creating, healthcare, and value destroying, apps, instruments. We also have value transferring instrument, which is fundamentally what bankers and VCs do. They take money from one source and reallocate it to another. Value transfer agents do not create value themselves. The seek those who do. Yet value transfer agents look at value solely as an economic return. Thus if they invest in a value destroying instrument, such as an app, they then also become a party to that action.

One way to determine the societal effects on value is the concept of externalities. Namely the effect that may be secondary or a result of the primary action. There is a well-established body of work on quantifying externalities. The problem often is, however, that externalities are unanticipated consequences.

The problem we see today is twofold. First, value is often measured solely in short term financial returns devoid on the unintended consequences of the externalities. Second, trust is oftentimes never a factor in the delivery of instruments. I again use the example of Amazon. As it seeks to continually expand, it does so outside the scope of its ability to maintain trust. Its use of third parties and its separation of control on these parties has led to loss of trust. Similarly, for an entity like Google, its burgeoning political bent, for better or worse, can irreparably taint it reputation as a trustworthy source of information. This of course is orders of magnitude for entities like Facebook and Twitter.

Thus when we seek quality, the amalgam of value and trust, we will have the conundrum of Pirsig in Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance (ZMM). Pirsig says:

"The definition was: "Quality is a characteristic of thought and statement that is recognized by a nonthinking process. Because definitions are a product of rigid, formal thinking, quality cannot be defined." The fact that this "definition" was actually a refusal to define did not draw comment. The students had no formal training that would have told them his statement was, in a formal sense, completely irrational. If you can’t define something you have no formal rational way of knowing that it exists. Neither can you really tell anyone else what it is. There is, in fact, no formal difference between inability to define and stupidity. When I say, "Quality cannot be defined," I’m really saying formally, "I’m stupid about Quality.""

Pirsig goes on:

"He singled out aspects of Quality such as unity, vividness, authority, economy, sensitivity, clarity, emphasis, flow, suspense, brilliance, precision, proportion, depth and so on; kept each of these as poorly defined as Quality itself, but demonstrated them by the same class reading techniques. He showed how the aspect of Quality called unity, the hanging-togetherness of a story, could be improved with a technique called an outline. The authority of an argument could be jacked up with a technique called footnotes, which gives authoritative reference."

"There’s an entire branch of philosophy concerned with the definition of Quality, known as esthetics. Its question, What is meant by beautiful?...he saw that when Quality is kept undefined by definition, the entire field called esthetics is wiped out—completely disenfranchised—kaput. By refusing to define Quality he had placed it entirely outside the analytic process. If you can’t define Quality, there’s no way you can subordinate it to any intellectual rule. The estheticians can have nothing more to say. Their whole field, definition of Quality, is gone."

Indeed esthetics, and aesthetics does read onto to what quality is, it is a perception, not a measurable quantity.

Thus, we should look at value as the amalgam, seek out trust, and then quality, as elusive as Pirsig notes, should be self-evident.

Thus when we return to the issue of information we want not just valuable information, but we demand quality information. Namely it has actionable value and it is predicated on trust.

Let me expand a bit on trust. Now when looking at a set of comments on the Internet, say such as a product review on Amazon, we look for ones whose reviewer states who they are and what bona fides they have. If we have some anonymous reviewer we have no way of ascertain whether we can trust this. Anonymous means they are hiding the most essential element of trust, namely that they stand behind their good name. Thus anonymous news reports are useless for we have no way of identifying their veracity.

News: Real or Fake?

The next issue is that of Fake News. Just what is Fake News? Let me refer to a recent article from the MIT Sloan School, in Science[2]. The authors note:

We define “fake news” to be fabricated information that mimics news media content in form but not in organizational process or intent. Fake-news outlets, in turn, lack the news media's editorial norms and processes for ensuring the accuracy and credibility of information. Fake news overlaps with other information disorders, such as misinformation (false or misleading information) and disinformation (false information that is purposely spread to deceive people). Fake news has primarily drawn recent attention in a political context but it also has been documented in information promulgated about topics such as vaccination, nutrition, and stock values. It is particularly pernicious in that it is parasitic on standard news outlets, simultaneously benefiting from and undermining their credibility.

The authors continue:

Journalistic norms of objectivity and balance arose as a backlash among journalists against the widespread use of propaganda in World War I (particularly their own role in propagating it) and the rise of corporate public relations in the 1920s. Local and national oligopolies created by the dominant 20th century technologies of information distribution (print and broadcast) sustained these norms. The internet has lowered the cost of entry to new competitors—many of which have rejected those norms—and undermined the business models of traditional news sources that had enjoyed high levels of public trust and credibility. General trust in the mass media collapsed to historic lows in 2016, especially on the political right, with 51% of Democrats and 14% of Republicans expressing “a fair amount” or “a great deal” of trust in mass media as a news source.

Strangely as we noted in our discussion of Propaganda, it was Wilson and his attempt to get us into and totally committed to WW I that true American propaganda was developed. Also the Germans took up Bernays Propaganda and brought it to the fore in WW II. Thus when news become propaganda, for any cause, we have the potential for catastrophic results.

Now Fake News has always been with us. It always will be. It is the individuals duty to attempt to question the alleged facts. Juries do this all the time. They are presented with what at times is Fake Facts, and the jury must decide whether they have a basis or not. They are the trier of facts.

Regrettably the paper in Science presents no detail of the analysis performed. Namely it does not demonstrate how one determine what is Fake and what is Real. Fake News may actually build upon facts, then in drawing a conclusion, it uses terms like "could", "may" etc.


Russia and Disinformation

Let us examine the issue of Russia, disinformation and putative interference. First we should note that such actions have been multilateral for decades. During our own Revolution the English Crown managed certain presses and as such tried to influence the locals. It was in my view the efforts of Thomas Paine who established a well-accepted understanding of what a rebellion was essential. Russia has also been actively expressing its interests, as the Soviet Union, since 1918 when Ludwig Martens came to the US as a Soviet agent and seeking funds for the new Soviet Republics. It was in a920 when the US Senate actually had hearings and asked Hillquit for his reasons and objectives of his activities in the US.

In the Martens case the Congressional Record notes[3]:

Whereas one Ludwig C. A. K. Martens claims to be an ambassador to United States from the Russian Soviet Government; and Whereas, according to newspaper reports, he refuses to answer certain questions before the Lusk investigating committee in the city of New Tor , committee appointed to investigate propaganda against this Government is the ground that he is such ambassador and entitled to diplomatic privilege and

Whereas said Martens has headquarters in the city of New York and is alleged to be directing propaganda against this Government; and

Whereas, according to his testimony before said Lusk committee, he came to this country as a German citizen and is a member of the Communist Party pledged to overthrow capitalistic systems of government the world over;

Now it is critical to see that this hearing is a century ago. That even then Congress was concerned about Russian Propaganda.

Conclusion

Information is in the eye of the beholder. Unfortunately that may very well be the conclusion. Fake News is considered fake because we do or do not maintain a level of integrity in those who report it. Equally so, Fake News has a continued existence, and actual proliferation due to a panoply of reasons. For example, people may truly believe the news because they want to. Or, for example, people find it humorous or absurd and have a propensity to share that with others. Also the readers of Fake News may not have the intellectual resources to differentiate what they see as real or fake. This reason is a serious problem. If we have an electorate who cannot understand what is being said then we can have purveyors of falsity become rulers of the people. Education was a one-time excellent but over the last fifty years it has become politicized, spending excessive amounts on politically correct training and less if any time on critical thinking skills. Education should not tell people what to think but how to think. Nothing is necessarily what it appears to be and trust no one may be mantras of the truly educated.

Thus the paradigm with which this piece began, one of classifying various news outlets as regards to the information they present as news is truly vacuous. It has not only no merit but it fundamentally falsifies how information is contained. Information is attained through a dialectic, contrasting one view with another, while validating the facts. Perhaps one should look at Popper's approach of falsification. Namely that one should not accept some of these facts, one should continuously question and seek a means or method by which they can be falsified. In a competent Intelligence organization that is the key exercise. Facts as given must always be question, for an adversary who makes it too easy to obtain facts may be deliberately spreading false information. If an adversary seeks to perform a counter-intelligence operation effectively, they do so in such a manner as not to be identified and not to be falsified. That being the case how then should one deal with alleged Russian collusion, and in turn, the Press?


[3] US Senate Record, Committee on Foreign Relations, Russian Propaganda hearing 14 April 1920.

Thursday, July 30, 2015

The Press and The Prostate

There are times when you have to say; "You cannot make this up!". In a WAPO piece today the reporter extols the work of some Brits who have on some work on a very small sample and have identified a few genes, mRNA, SNPs etc and from this have developed a staging type system. One should add this to the list of hundreds of others.

Now the researchers state:

We show the relative contributions of gene expression and copy number data on phenotype, and demonstrate the improved power gained from integrative analyses. We confirm alterations in six genes previously associated with prostate cancer (MAP3K7, MELK, RCBTB2, ELAC2, TPD52, ZBTB4), and also identify 94 genes not previously linked to prostate cancer progression that would not have been detected using either transcript or copy number data alone. We confirm a number of previously published molecular changes associated with high risk disease, including MYC amplification, and NKX3-1, RB1 and PTEN deletions, as well as over-expression of PCA3 and AMACR, and loss of MSMB in tumour tissue. A subset of the 100 genes outperforms established clinical predictors of poor prognosis (PSA, Gleason score), as well as previously published gene signatures (p = 0.0001). We further show how our molecular profiles can be used for the early detection of aggressive cases in a clinical setting, and inform treatment decisions.

Frankly much of the above was known in some way shape or form. There are also quite a few commercial tests available already. Now WAPO states:

Through genomic profiling of 259 men with prostate cancer, scientists have identified five groups of prostate cancer with distinct DNA signatures. The discovery represents a major advance as researchers can now begin trying to tailor therapies to those subtypes. The approach has worked well in breast cancer and helped millions avoid the unnecessary cost, pain and time spent on treatments that are destined to fail. [Obama touts ‘lifesaving’ potential of personalized medicine] Such work is the backbone of President Obama's $215 million precision medicine initiative announced in January, which aims to pioneer a new approach to how we treat disease by moving away from a "one-size-fits-all" approach to medicine to one that takes into account things like a person’s genetic makeup, or the genetic profile of a tumor.

Now this is UK, Sweden, and Norway work.  It also is at best personalized but not precise. One can be "precise" but inaccurate. I can tell you precisely where something is but it may not be there. But alas I guess English is no longer used "good" uh well.

Now if the WAPO author had understood where the work in this area is going perhaps they would have had a better view. In fact we have detailed work by Gundem et al in Nature just a short while back. They noted:

Using whole-genome sequencing, we characterized multiple metastases arising from prostate tumours in ten patients. Integrated analyses of subclonal architecture revealed the patterns of metastatic spread in unprecedented detail. Metastasis-to-metastasis spread was found to be common, either through de novo monoclonal seeding of daughter metastases or, in five cases, through the transfer of multiple tumour clones between metastatic sites. Lesions affecting tumour suppressor genes usually occur as single events, whereas mutations in genes involved in androgen receptor signalling commonly involve multiple, convergent events in different metastases. Our results elucidate in detail the complex patterns of metastatic spread and further our understanding of the development of resistance to androgen-deprivation therapy in prostate cancer.

 Namely they noted that prostate metastatic cells in the body had a disparate set of genetic changes. In fact the profiles were quite complex. Thus any small sample as in this article is in my opinion suspect.

As Cancer UK notes:

First, the researchers looked at copy-number alterations in tumour samples from 156 men who had undergone surgery in Cambridge to remove their prostate after being diagnosed with cancer. They then analysed the levels of thousands of mRNAs in these same samples. Next, they compared the two sets of results. Could they find regions of genetic disruption that, by altering gene activity – the level at which they are switched on or off – could be driving the growth of tumours? The answer was yes – they spotted around 1,000 genes where changes in the copy-number – that is, they were deleted or repeated – also changed gene activity. The researchers then homed in on 100 genes with the greatest change compared with healthy samples and which seemed to be crucial to prostate cancer growth, and looked to see how their activities varied across the 156 men. They found that by using this group of 100 genes – or gene signature – prostate cancer patients who’d had surgery to remove their prostate could be divided into five distinct sub-groups.
  • One group had lots of DNA deletions and consequently low activity of certain genes
  • Another had high amounts of DNA repetition which resulted in increased activity of specific genes.
  • Two more groups had very few copy-number alterations, or changes in activity.
  • The fifth and final group had some – but not too many – copy-number alterations.

But one may ask; how do these compare with all the others? Also the sample size is quite small. As Science Daily states:

"This research could be game-changing if the results hold up in larger clinical trials and could give us better information to guide each man's treatment -- even helping us to choose between treatments for men with aggressive cancers. Ultimately this could mean more effective treatment for the men who need it, helping to save more lives and improve the quality of life for many thousands of men with prostate cancer."

Namely the authors themselves seem to readily admit the small sample size issue.

But there are two points to be made:

1. All too frequently authors extend the significance of their results. This is the equivalent of "shingling the roof in the fog". Be careful.

2. The Press, especially WAPO, uses this as some adulation of the Obama Administration. It was NOT in the US and IT IS NOT CONCLUSIVE!

It is truly amazing in my opinion how political even basic medicine has become, especially in reporting.

Sunday, January 12, 2014

Dream Merchants

A good entrepreneur is also a good "Dream Merchant". Not a Huckster, not some creature from Hollywood's distortion of reality, but a person who has a dream, has embodied it in some form, and sees where it can go where others cannot yet see it.

I will give an example. In 1980 I went to Warner Cable. The Chairman at the time wanted me to develop a business using video on demand and extend it well beyond home shopping and banking. I took that dream and embodied it in reality and then brought in companies like Bell Atlantic, Bank of America, GTE and DEC. Each did their due diligence and the like. The problem with many dreams is exogenous factors often interfere, Warner rand upon hard times with Atari, and also we were a bit too early, say thirty years too early. But the Dream had legs, it was an Amazon before perhaps many today at Amazon could read. But that is at best a foot note to history.

At the other end there were executives at our partner, who would say that this home shopping would never work. They went on to head major banks and computer companies. They were right in the short run but well off the mark of the march of history. Yet in business timing is everything. Dream Merchants are only as good as the timeliness of their dream.

Now to a piece in the New Yorker. It says:

The greatest business icon of our era, Steve Jobs, was legendary for his “reality-distortion field,” which allowed him to convince people that improbable outcomes were not just possible but certain. Jobs’s endless rehearsals for his public presentations and his scripting of every moment for maximum effect—these are all straight from the con artist’s playbook. So, too, is the sense of conviction he projected. In Weinberg’s words, “Before you sell a deal you have to live the deal. You have to believe in it, because, if you don’t believe in it, you can’t sell it.”Of course, the fundamental difference between entrepreneurs and con artists is that con artists ultimately know that the fantasies they’re selling are lies. Steve Jobs, often enough, could make those fantasies come true. Still, that unquantifiable mélange of risk, hope, and hype provides both the capitalist’s formula for transforming the world and the con artist’s stratagem for turning your money into his money. Maybe there’s a reason we talk about the American Dream.

I knew Jobs at a distance from my Atari days. At Atari they saw Apple as the competition, and even had Apple decals lining the urinals, some Silicon Valley humor I guess. But Jobs was a Dream Merchant, but one who always believed that he could achieve the dreams. He was not a con man, for the most part almost all entrepreneurs are Dream Merchants and not con men. The article's nexus is not only unfair but a distortion of reality. I have seen con men, they stand out like sore thumbs. I have seen them in Russia, Poland, Korea, New York and yes California. They have no substance behind their pitches. Jobs had reality.

Dreams and Dream Merchants as entrepreneurs are essential to our culture. They "burn their boats" and set out forward towards their dream. Without them we would have a very different world. Jobs had to have certainty, after all he is setting out on a journey from which there is only one goal, success, achievement of what he predicted. Then again, like Warner, he may have a great product but at the wrong time, look at Lisa. Yet in the long run he set a standard that few can beat.

The author in my opinion totally misunderstand the entrepreneur. The entrepreneur is no con man, the entrepreneur is what makes America. We have con men everywhere. We need to honor and cherish and nurture our entrepreneurs, not defame them out of ignorance.

Monday, August 12, 2013

Newspapers: There was no Surprise

In 1980 and through 1983 I had responsibility as President of the Warner Electronic Home Services Group to develop what was then called Videotext. This was the immediate predecessor of the Internet. We used two way CATV systems and also integrated telco networks with cable and provided video on demand.

The newspapers in those days saw this as a threat. We met with the Washington Post, the NY Times, the Boston Globe, Gannett and others. Each had their "teams" preparing for the new electronic world, as did banks, retail stores and others. Below is the strategy slide for Gannett.
Thus in discussions at that time there was a clear understanding of how the new electronic distribution channel would disrupt their business and moreover what could be doe to thwart it. Specifically we stated to them the following:
Namely there were strategies they could follow which would protect them in the long term. The opportunities were:
Did any of them do anything? Some did but they did so to align themselves with the old way of doing things. They all too often just missed the point. I recall a meeting with the Boston Globe team, old newspaper types, who just did not see what was happening. The recent sale of the Globe and Post are just first steps of a new generation trying to adapt. The problem may be more systemic and not solvable. After all we told them thirty years ago and they did not listen then.

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

The News: Balanced?

A recent post by some professors contends that:

We find that, on average, newspapers are located almost exactly at the median voter in their home states. In California, where we have the most data, newspapers are probably slightly to the right of the median voter. We find no evidence that the US press exhibits a liberal bias.

Our second finding is that newspapers are moderate relative to interest groups and political parties. That is, although newspapers exhibit some variation in their ideological position, they tend to be much closer to the median voter than most interest groups.

 First, what planet do these folks come from. Ever read the NY Times, Washington Post, Boston Globe, Atlanta Journal, Baltimore Sun, and the list can go on. Not to mention any rag in California! But so what, any reasonable person recognizes the bias, it is so blatant and third rate. They make the old yellow journalism rags look like Aristotle.

I am continually amazed at the academics who seem to have the conclusion first and then seek means and methods to justify them. The advantage of the Internet is to some degree self selection. One can reach their own conclusion.

At least it is not MSNBC.