Three Years Ago

 NEJM published an article on 29 January 2020 which concluded:

On the basis of this information, there is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019. Considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere. Measures to prevent or reduce  transmission should be implemented in populations at risk. (Funded by the Ministry of Science and  technology of China and others.)

And the band played on! 

More MIT and Free Speech

 The NY Post, founded by Alexander Hamilton, noted the following:

...Pompeo relates it, he wanted to give a major speech on China and especially the way in which the CCP is distorting universities and other research institutes inside the United States. Not just by funding these institutions, and directing their research, but by trying to turn Chinese students into agents of the communist regime. It’s a crucial subject and was high time that an American official made such an intervention. But shortly before the speech MIT said they couldn’t host the US Secretary of State after all. A strange move, no? Well according to Pompeo he picked up the phone and spoke with the president of MIT, Rafael Reif. And Reif claimed that there was no way that the speech could go ahead because of the risk of offending Chinese students. By MIT’s own data in 2021-22 a full 25% of international students at the university were from China. In fact what was clear was that the no-platforming of an American Secretary of State on an American campus had nothing to do with a fear of upsetting Chinese students. What Reif and his fellow academic cowards were afraid of was that their money spigot from Beijing would be shut off. If a speech were to take place on the MIT campus that upset the communists in China then the CCP would retaliate in a way that would cost MIT financially. Not just via Chinese students attending the university and paying full tuition fees, but in donations which have come to MIT from Chinese state-linked companies and even the Chinese government itself.

This is just a classic example of the anti-American attitude of the administration. I recall Jerry Wiesner coming into the entrance at 77 Mass Ave during the Viet Nam War and he said to his colleague as he saw the remnants of some demonstration, "This is my Institute and they cant make a mess against our country". It is in my opinion highly unlikely the the recent administration at MIT would even come near such a thought.

In my opinion and my experience MIT had become a training ground for many Communist China students. Students from China are approved and vetted by the CCP so they are clearly putative agents. Also they often are funded on research grants from the US Government, even DoD!  

Will the new MIT Administration make any changes? Highly doubtful.

Taught vs Learn

 I recall that in my Senior Year at High School, I wanted to take Solid Geometry. Looking back I have no idea why, but New York offered a Regents exam, the most advanced, and you could take it. BUT, if you took it without having been taught you needed a 75 to pass whereas if you had been taught you just needed 65. Needless to say neither levels concerned me.

So I told my Principal I wanted to take the Regents exam and I would learn it on my own. He had to figure out if that was possible, I had already been a step ahead of him. It was. So come June 1961 I sat alone and took the exam, and of course I did quite well. All I could learn from was the Barrons answer book for that Regents exam. I had no idea how to get a text, this was before Amazon and credit cards.

The lesson, most things must be learned and not taught. In fact, success comes from learning not being taught, especially in today's worked where information is abundant.

So why this tale? Simple, if Florida does not want to "teach" an AP exam the go out and "learn" it. It is like the SATs. Get the Barrons book, go through every page, do every problem and d it again. You will ace the SAT. You will "learn" how to ace it. No one "teaches" it to you. So stop bemoaning life and "learn" something, everything!

COVID, Imprinting and New Variants

The current logic from DC is that we must make COVID vaccines an annual affair. My thoughts originally was that this may be a good idea. The along comes immune imprinting. In Nature they note:

Imprinting equips the immune system with a memory of an invader that helps it prepare to do battle again. The key players are memory B cells, which are generated in lymph nodes during the body’s first exposure to a virus. These cells then keep watch in the bloodstream for the same foe, ready to develop into plasma cells that then churn out antibodies. The snag comes when the immune system encounters a similar, but not identical, strain of a virus. In this case, rather than generate new, or ‘naive’, B cells to produce tailored antibodies, the memory-B-cell response kicks in. This often leads to the production of antibodies that bind to features found in both the old and new strains, known as cross-reactive antibodies. They might offer some protection but are not a perfect fit to the new strain. Imprinting was first observed in 1947 by Jonas Salk and Thomas Francis, the developers of the first flu vaccine, together with another scientist, Joseph Quilligan¹. They found that people who had previously had flu, and were then vaccinated against the current circulating strain, produced antibodies against the first strain they had encountered. Francis gave the phenomenon the tongue-in-cheek name ‘original antigenic sin’, although today most researchers prefer to call it imprinting.

Namely there seems to be a law of diminishing returns.  So how to get around this? They continue:

So what does this mean for our current vaccines? Boyton says that they are “brilliant” in their ability to protect against serious illness. But, she says, now that most people are protected, scientists should focus on finding vaccines that can overcome imprinting, to halt the spread of the virus, not just the severity of disease. “Now we’re in a slightly different place, we’ve got to think slightly differently.” Seder agrees that vaccines will need to change if they are to limit infection and transmission, rather than just prevent  atalities. He says that one approach would be to use live vaccines, which would persist in the body for 5–10 days and might produce a more effective response. But live vaccines pose greater risks, particularly for vulnerable people, owing to the dangers of even a weakened virus multiplying.  

Live vaccines do offer an option, namely they give the immune system multiple antigen targets to go after. Each new variant may have multiple new antigen targets and this may enhance the response. The problem with live vaccines however is production, lots of eggs. Yet we do this with flu vaccines now. 

Will our brilliant Government clones ever address this option? Doubtful. It is really nothing new but it seems politics prevent the poisoning of the public.

 

Free Speech and MIT?

 In a WSJ article the author notes:

The data point to a growing problem: According to the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression, MIT ranks an abysmal 181st out of 203 universities when it comes to students’ belief that the administration will protect their speech rights. FIRE reports that the mistrust extends to MIT faculty: 38% say they don’t believe the administration would defend a speaker’s rights during a controversy. Forty percent of MIT faculty said they were more likely to self-censor as of summer 2022 than they had been before 2020. Among students, 41% aren’t confident in the administration’s ability to protect controversial speech. Those are disheartening statistics for one of the world’s best research institutions. If MIT faculty, who are at the cutting edge of science and technology, can’t count on their employer to defend open inquiry, it might prevent them from taking innovative risks. This, in turn, would stymie technological progress and the education of the next generation of innovators. 

 No surprises here. I have been opining on the expanding proto-Marxist administration. The classic example is the Kluge Lady approach to prohibiting alumni to enter the campus. Gates at the entry way, movement checked across every access. 

They continue:

MIT’s Ad Hoc Working Group on Free Expression. The group was commissioned in January 2022 by then President Leo Rafael Reif to review free-speech policies and propose policy changes. The statement calls on MIT to embrace its tradition of “provocative thinking, controversial views, and nonconformity.” While community has the right to expect “a collegial and respectful learning and working environment,” the institution “cannot prohibit speech that some experience as offensive or injurious.” The statement affirms that debate and “deliberation of controversial ideas are hallmarks of the Institute’s educational and research missions and are essential to the pursuit of truth, knowledge, equity, and justice.”

 In my opinion and in my experience MIT has unfortunately become more than woke, it has become an example of almost Stalinist extremes. It has Party Commissars in each Department managing the proper protocols for speech. Failure results in retraining. Moreover the Institute has replaced excellence with equity. The Institute reaches out to insure and equitable balance rather than exceptional excellence.

A new President will do nothing. Unfortunately. 

Science, and to a degree engineering, is fundamentally a dialectic. There is a thesis, antithesis, synthesis and it starts over again. An exceptional academic environment MUST allow for this process to exist, moreover they must facilitate such dialectic exchanges. The presence of the Commissars, called Associate Deans, in each Department places a chill on such a dialectic. Equity denies excellence. MIT for a century was a place for excellence. Now, not so much perhaps.

An Example of Government Inefficiency

 

I sent a letter, Priority Mail, paid $10, from Madison NJ to Arlington VA, It was sent to a senior USPS official regarding another Post Office refusal to deliver another priority mail package. The distance from Madison to Arlington is 233 miles. The package traveled about 1100 miles in the most circular route ever, back and forth through Merrifield a half dozen times. BTW, it is still not there, they are closed on Saturdays and there is no way for the USPS to deliver mail to the USPS!

As they say, you cannot make this up! One can ask what the real costs of this mishandled piece of paper really is and then ask why the USPS is in financial straights? 

This is a "Where's Waldo" to the nth degree.

Persecuting Other Species or Speciphobia?

 Okay, let's try this on. Science has an article on eating insects. It attempts to make them necessary for human survival, and they assert:

Food insecurity may emerge from climate change, extreme weather events such as prolonged droughts and floods, ongoing global supply chain problems, and unpredictable geopolitical conflicts. In particular, the growing populations of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) will require more accessible, affordable, and sustainable nutrition. To this end, upscaling traditional agriculture and livestock production is not a sustainable solution because these industries are themselves a driver of the climate crisis. The growing popularity of vegetarianism and veganism and the shift to plant-based or lab-grown meat are commendable efforts to solve these problems, but they may not be applicable or practical for every country. Farming insects for food generally requires much less resources compared with meat production. Edible insects can also supplement other diets by providing a different roster of nutrients and present an opportunity to improve food security.

So to test out this demand of the woke mob I spoke with my friends in my back yard. First was Antnee squirrel, a long time mentor and confidant. His response was classic:

"Bugs sir, why would anyone eat bugs. We gave them up millennia ago when you humans came upon the scene. You leave lots of good stuff for us, as you do now sir, fresh peanuts, blueberries, cheese,  and the like sir. Why sir, bugs are the feat of birds, and of course your nemesis the bats."

Well indeed, what would be left for bats if we devoured their food source. Then Antnee told me about dozens of bird familys that devour insects.

He then said that the plants rely upon their gatherings to propagate, if we eliminated insects for voracious humans then what of the plants, and their contribution to generating oxygen and eliminating CO2. 

Antnee said:

"Horror, sir, horror. Just leave the little buggers to themselves. You humans have a tendency sir to assume you know everything. You should get these people out here and see what really happens."

Antnee just waddled away with three peanuts stuffed in his mouth, happy not to have to eat bugs!

ChatGPT, an Alternative?

 The Jerusalem Post details an interesting alternative to the flashy AI report writer. They note:

However, the AI chatbot isn't always correct and more importantly, it doesn't usually provide sources. And even if it does, many have pointed out that these sources might not even exist. This is one of the reasons why many schools and companies have tried to ban ChatGPT's usage. Wordtune Spices, though, is a bit different. Unlike ChatGPT, Wordtune Spices doesn't "write" the text in the same way. This means that no one can use it to essentially write an essay for them. What it does instead, though, is serves as "co-writer." One simply inputs already written text and it offers options to add to the text and improve it. But more importantly, it also always provides sources. 

This approach is clearly a superior one. The use of recent referenced research and its assembly into the outline of a coherent document written by the writer not the program allows for what I call secondary puzzle solving,

Secondary puzzle solving, SPS, is a step above a Review paper. The SPS approach starts with a question that may be answered by selecting parts of primary research and assembling them together. The net result is a unique solution to a primary problem using identified primary sources often verbatim. It does not paraphrase the source but selects key statements and refers to them directly. 

I have been practicing this approach for the past several years with some modest success. I suspect that it may prove useful for addressing holistic issues in areas such as cancer immunotherapy.

Ode to Davos

First Witch

     When shall we three meet again

    In thunder, lightning, or in rain?

 Second Witch

     When the hurlyburly's done,

    When the battle's lost and won.

 Third Witch

     That will be ere the set of sun.

 First Witch

     Where the place?

 Second Witch

     Upon the heath.

 Third Witch

     There to meet with Macbeth.

 First Witch

     I come, Graymalkin!

 Second Witch

     Paddock calls.

 Third Witch

     Anon.

 ALL

     Fair is foul, and foul is fair:

    Hover through the fog and filthy air.

ChatGPT

 A colleague suggested I try ChatGPT. Interesting but not ready for prime time. It take a statement or question, then assembles a Wikipedia type answer. If you correct it the tendency is to apologize again and again. It clearly is being trained by the many users, slowly. Reading it one can see a rather rigid form of monologue.

It also never shuts up....like some kid who just wants to show you how much the kid knows. It lacks a dialog and a dialectic. 

If I were interrogating it I believe I could determine its AI underpinnings somewhat quickly. Frankly, I don't like him/her/it/they/them etc

But give it a try...but don't waste too much time.

New Jersey Constitution

 It is worth reading the New Jersey Constitution. It begins:

1. All persons are by nature free and independent, and have certain natural and unalienable rights, among which are those of enjoying and defending life and liberty, of acquiring, possessing, and protecting property, and of pursuing and obtaining safety and happiness.

2. a. All political power is inherent in the people. Government is instituted for the protection, security, and benefit of the people, and they have the right at all times to alter or reform the same, whenever the public good may require it.

b. The people reserve unto themselves the power to recall, after at least one year of service, any elected official in this State or representing this State in the United States Congress. The Legislature shall enact laws to provide for such recall elections. Any such laws shall include a provision that a recall election shall be held upon petition of at least 25% of the registered voters in the electoral district of the official sought to be recalled. If legislation to implement this constitutional amendment is not enacted within one year of the adoption of the amendment, the Secretary of State shall, by regulation, implement the constitutional amendment, except that regulations adopted by the Secretary of State shall be superseded by any subsequent legislation consistent with this constitutional amendment governing recall elections. The sufficiency of any statement of reasons or grounds procedurally required shall be a political rather than a judicial question.

3. No person shall be deprived of the inestimable privilege of worshipping Almighty God in a manner agreeable to the dictates of his own conscience; nor under any pretense whatever be compelled to attend any place of worship contrary to his faith and judgment; nor shall any person be obliged to pay tithes, taxes, or other rates for building or repairing any church or churches, place or places of worship, or for the maintenance of any minister or ministry, contrary to what he believes to be right or has deliberately and voluntarily engaged to perform.

4. There shall be no establishment of one religious sect in preference to another; no religious or racial test shall be required as a qualification for any office or public trust.

 In my opinion and in my experience this document seems to be violated on a daily basis. It is worth the read.

 

The Horror, the Horror

 Well it is Friday 13th, January. Always has been a bad day at Black Rock...the movie not the woke investment folks. But Microsoft again had a Friday 13th update, yep, 6 hours of my time on just one machine with the software those morons in Seattle produced. I have seven more machines to go.

MS is buying some AT gamut, so we can kiss that one farewell. It seems MS has the proclivity to take something simple and make it impossible. A Gatesian holdover perhaps.

Well back to the updates.....

Smoke and Mirrors

 The latest flap out of DC is the CPSC threat to ban all natural gas stoves. The argument is based upon some study by Stanford individuals noting levels of methane gas and NO, an oxide of nitrogen, the most significant element in our atmosphere, well above oxygen. 

The study contends:

Natural gas stoves in >40 million U.S. residences release methane (CH4) a potent greenhouse  gas through postmeter leaks and incomplete combustion. We quantified methane released in 53 homes during all phases of stove use: steady-state-off (appliance not in use), steady-state-on (during combustion), and transitory periods of ignition and extinguishment. We estimated that natural gas stoves emit 0.8-1.3% of the gas they use as unburned methane and that total U.S. stove emissions are 28.1 [95% confidence interval: 18.5, 41.2] Gg CH4 year-1. More than three-quarters of methane emissions we measured originated during steady-state-off. Using a 20-year timeframe for methane, annual methane emissions from all gas stoves in U.S. homes have a climate impact comparable to the annual carbon dioxide emissions of 500 000 cars. In addition to methane emissions, co-emitted healthdamaging air pollutants such as nitrogen oxides (NOx) are released into home air and can trigger respiratory diseases. In 32 homes, we measured NO x (NO and NO2) emissions and found them to be linearly related to the amount of natural gas burned (r2 = 0.76; p ≪ 0.01). Emissions averaged 21.7 [20.5, 22.9] ng NOx J-1, comprised of 7.8 [7.1, 8.4] ng NO2 J-1 and 14.0 [12.8, 15.1] ng NO J-1. Our data suggest that families who don’t use their range hoods or who have poor ventilation can surpass the 1-h national standard of NO2 (100 ppb) within a few minutes of stove usage, particularly in smaller kitchens.

 Also see the other publication.

I would argue that in my opinion and my experience the results are at best useful for a science fair not the basis for a trillion dollar cost for the consumer.

Here are some facts:

1. NO rapidly converts to NO2 which is highly reactive and can be reduced in the presence of other chemicals. 

2. The cause of asthma is highly problematic and the assertion that methane and its products "can" cause asthma in my opinion lack basic clinical evidence

3. The experiments were minimal and not in the least dispositive. It begs two questions; first the variability of emissions based on stoves and residences, second the dispositive cause of asthma. Neither of these issue were discussed. 

 Moreover I suspect, but lack any prooof, that the use of many recent artificial pan coatings may cause a greater risk than either methane or NO.  Personally I use a cast iron fry pan and steel pots, no coatings. Stove usage is 1-2 min for my oatmeal in the AM and 5-15 min for dinner. The stove has an auto cutoff when not in use, no constant flame. Ventilation is good. So I must be penalized based upon in my opinion limited if not shabby "science".

Perhaps this is a combination of the environmentalists zealots plus the IBEW, note the CPSC promoter. 

This is a complex issue that can be studied in the typical scientific dialectic manner. Not by hand picking some one off study.  

What If?

 I have noticed a trend that has become pandemic amongst software developers: namely. everyone is like "me". Take the example of two step factor verification. Namely you enter an ID then a password. But then you MUST, if it is a Microsoft product, have a smart phone with a Microsoft App.

The assumption is two fold. First they assume everyone has a smart phone, NOT. There are some people who do not get Government funded phones, those folks working for a living. Second, there are those folks with a phone but do not want any third party Apps for fear of security breaches. Yes Microsoft may not be that secure.

But this is just an example. Rules are made based on the assumptions of software designers whose incompetent and clueless arrogance drives away customers. Management never corrects them since management fears them. After all it is software and that is a secret society, the Templars of the 21st Century.

My fear is that this is just going to get worse as more "coders" are created who are both clueless and arrogant. The worst design in my opinion, reflecting just this example of arrogance is the Microsoft product. It assumes every user has a smart phone plus agrees to load a Microsoft App which may itself compromise the phone. Now one has Microsoft tracking your every move.

FED Balance Sheet

 The above is the FED Balance Sheet major items. Note that both Treasury Obligations and Mortgages are declining. BUT:

With $5 trillion in the Notes at 5% interest this is $250 billion a year in interest alone, assuming notes roll over. Kind of scary.

The Variants are Mutating

 

In a recent paper, unpublished, the authors note:

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant continues to evolve, with new BQ and XBB subvariants now rapidly expanding in Europe/US and Asia, respectively. As these new subvariants have additional spike mutations, they may possess altered antibody evasion properties. Here, we report that neutralization of BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB, and XBB.1 by sera from vaccinees and infected persons was markedly impaired, including sera from individuals who were boosted with a WA1/BA.5 bivalent mRNA vaccine. Compared to the ancestral strain D614G, serum neutralizing titers against BQ and XBB subvariants were lower by 13-81-fold and 66-155-fold, respectively, far beyond what had been observed to date. A panel of monoclonal antibodies capable of neutralizing the original Omicron variant, including those with Emergency Use Authorization, were largely inactive against these new subvariants. The spike mutations that conferred antibody resistance were individually studied and structurally explained. Finally, the ACE2-binding affinities of the spike proteins of these novel subvariants were found to be similar to those of their predecessors. Taken together, our findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to the efficacy of current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized monoclonal antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies.

 The Hill notes:

The XBB.1.5 omicron subvariant is raising concerns of a potential surge in COVID-19 cases as it sweeps across the Northeast. Officials have warned in recent weeks that the strain is highly transmissible, can more easily evade the immunity offered by vaccines or prior infections than past variants — and is likely to drive cases up around the country. The subvariant has already rapidly spread in the Northeast, where it is currently estimated to be causing about 72 percent of infections. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention indicated last week that XBB.1.5 was the most prevalent subvariant in the U.S. as a whole, accounting for 40.5 percent of cases in the country. However, this information is subject to change as more data is collected from states, and XBB.1.5’s share of U.S. cases has fallen to an estimated 27.6 percent as of Friday. But while another omicron subvariant, BQ.1.1, is still dominant in the country beyond the Northeast, XBB.1.5 has also reached all other regions of the U.S., and officials predict it will continue to spread. Due to its recent ascent, data on XBB.1.5 is limited, but health officials have disclosed some key insights into the strain, as well as what questions remain unanswered.

I have seen a massive increase in patients having second, third etc infections and who have been vaccinated. Digging deeper it was in my opinion the result of lax control, holiday parties, close and prolonged exposure. The problem is that almost all self testing goes unreported so we really have no reliable data. I see no way to remedy this.

Why Vaccines and Border Controls

 

The data above is a bit disconcerting but expected. None of the COVID pandemic models ever considered the above. Namely the virus is mutating literally daily into more aggressive forms. Regarding mutations, we should understand the simple fact:

1. The virus reproduces at a constant rate. Each reproduction is subject to a mutation. It is a single stranded RNA virus and thus highly mutateable. 

2. The longer a person is infected the more mutations.

3. Vaccines neither prevent infection nor do they prevent spread. The just reduce the duration and seriousness of the infection. This is a fact despite what Government officials have opined.

4. Thus vaccinated people are less at risk for generating mutants.

5. Unvaccinated people and those immunocompromised are at high risk for mutations as well as spreading. Again a fact omitted by Government folks.

6. Those crossing our borders, legally and otherwise, compose a high risk of infection as well as being in a pool for high mutations. Thus it is not surprising New York City is ground zero for the new mutation.

7. As long as the Government fails to communicate and control foreign entry we will see never ending mutations.

8. Fortunately we do have a ready made mitigating system with mRNA vaccines, albeit not preventative but a slowing down of mutations in those infected.

9. Understanding the dynamics of highly mutateable viruses is a poorly understood process. Yet the visceral understanding based on the facts is obvious.

As we enter the third year of this fiasco we do have means to mitigate but there needs to be leadership willing to state what we know and do not know. Frankly I never thought I would start out 2023 as I did in 2020.

A NOTE: The WHO lists well over 1,000 variants of the virus.It is worth looking at them just to see what has happened in 3 years. This will be an endless disease variation unless mutations are suppressed. The subtlety is in the fact that the virus is a single stranded RNA virus. It is more mutateable than HIV and it may have vaccine efficacy but the vaccines MUST keep up with the variants and people must be vaccinated. That is the only way to suppress the mutation rates. It is not clear how this can get across to the Press and people, not to mention our so called Public Health officials.

XBB.1.5: The Next "Pandemic" ?

 

The latest variant is XBB.1.5. Above is the spike mutations from the original. A recent paper indicates:

SARS-CoV-2 recombinant subvariant XBB.1.5 is growing rapidly in the United States, carrying an additional Ser486Pro substitution compared to XBB.1 and outcompeting BQ.1.1 and other XBB sublineages. The underlying mechanism for such high transmissibility remains unclear. Here we show that XBB.1.5 exhibits a substantially higher hACE2-binding affinity compared to BQ.1.1 and XBB/XBB.1. Convalescent plasma samples from BA.1, BA.5, and BF.7 breakthrough infection are significantly evaded by both XBB.1 and XBB.1.5, with XBB.1.5 displaying slightly weaker immune evasion capability than XBB.1. Evusheld and Bebtelovimab could not neutralize XBB.1/XBB.1.5, while Sotrovimab remains its weak reactivity and notably, SA55 is still highly effective. The fact that XBB.1 and XBB.1.5 showed comparable antibody evasion but distinct transmissibility suggests enhanced receptor-binding affinity would indeed lead to higher growth advantages. The strong hACE2 binding of XBB.1.5 could also enable its tolerance of further immune escape mutations, which should be closely monitored.

 This is suspect ted to have originated in the US, New York City specifically. It is recent and may most likely have resulted from infections of immune compromised and/or um-vaccinated individuals allowing for multiple mutations. The above reference is from China and as usual the CDC seems clueless. This is a more aggressive form and may most likely see an explosion.

I had thought we had started to see the last of this but the gross failure of our Public Health system and lack of immigration control and foreign travel has opened this door again. This virus has a strong tendency to mutate, especially in patients whose immune system fails to respond, even those who may already be vaccinated.

Latest COVID Panic

 A WSJ piece notes:

Public-health experts are sounding the alarm about a new Omicron variant dubbed XBB that is rapidly spreading across the Northeast U.S. Some studies suggest it is as different from the original Covid strain from Wuhan as the 2003 SARS virus. Should Americans be worried? It isn’t clear that XBB is any more lethal than other variants, but its mutations enable it to evade antibodies from prior infection and vaccines as well as existing monoclonal antibody treatments. Growing evidence also suggests that repeated vaccinations may make people more susceptible to XBB and could be fueling the virus’s rapid evolution.

The Nature article states:

Continuous evolution of Omicron has led to a rapid and simultaneous emergence of numerous variants that display growth advantages over BA.5 . Despite their divergent evolutionary courses, mutations on their receptor-binding domain (RBD) converge on several hotspots. The driving force and destination of such sudden convergent evolution and its impact on humoral immunity remain unclear. Here, we demonstrate that these convergent mutations can cause striking evasion of neutralizing antibody (NAb) drugs and convalescent plasma, including those from BA.5 breakthrough infection, while maintaining sufficient ACE2 binding capability. BQ.1.1.10 (BQ.1.1+Y144del), BA.4.6.3, XBB, and CH.1.1 are the most antibody-evasive strains tested. To delineate the origin of the convergent evolution, we determined the escape mutation profiles and neutralization activity of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) isolated from BA.2 and BA.5 breakthrough-infection convalescents . 

Due to humoral immune imprinting, BA.2 and especially BA.5 breakthrough infection reduced the diversity of the NAb binding sites and increased proportions of non-neutralizing antibody clones, which in turn focused humoral immune pressure and promoted convergent evolution in the RBD. 

Moreover, we showed that the convergent RBD mutations could be accurately inferred by deep mutational scanning (DMS) profiles , and the evolution trends of BA.2.75/BA.5 subvariants could be well-foreseen through constructed convergent pseudovirus mutants. 

These results suggest current herd immunity and BA.5 vaccine boosters may not efficiently prevent the infection of Omicron convergent variants.

 Now let us see if we can unfold this issue:

1. The WSJ is stating things without, in my opinion, any adequate basis in fact. 

2. The article is based on China only studies

3. The article has not been released

4. The China vaccines are NOT the US/European mRNA vaccines are are well know to be much less effective

5. Low efficacy allows mutations

6. China is now a source of major mutations because of their ineffective vaccines.

7. This SS RNA virus is subject to many mutations depending on how long it takes the infected person to respond.

8. To protect US and European citizens an immediate quarantine should have been adopted. Alas we have the same crew as three years ago so do not expect anything better!

9. New vaccines can be developed rapidly and should be. That means at least annual if not semi annual immune efforts.

10. The only way to fight this off is to have an aggressive near real time vaccine effort.

11. Vaccine neither prevent the disease nor do they inhibit transfer. They do mitigate responses. In addition the antivirals can effect improvement in those with poor vaccine responses or otherwise compromised.

 BUT, it is the Government that must take steps forward and do not expect any response.

Verizon Untethered, A Review

 Verizon Unthered is a book by McMurray about the time Ivan Seidenberg was at Verizon. 

First it must be noted that this is a book about Ivan Seidenberg and not by Ivan Seidenberg. If the notices are correct the primary author is McMurray with inserts by Charan. The book is a hagiography of the subject and via that a presentation of the evolution of Verizon from the time of the ATT breakup in the early 80s to about 2019. Unlike the book by Coll, TheDeal of the Century, which is a brilliant exposé of the actual ATT breakup, this work is a view of the evolution of one of the Baby Bells from then to almost now. Likewise unlike the classic book by Alfred Sloan, My Years with General Motors, the book does not purport to be a personal reflective.

 Prior Nexus

 It is worth reflecting that I worked for Seidenberg in the early 90s. Two issues are quite insightful. First, both he and I agreed that I needed no title, no rank, and all that was known was I reported to him. My job was to clean up messes that had resulted from poor choices from acquisitions. The closest I got was an introduction to the Board as “Doctor Death”. My second observation was at a meeting with Seidenberg about planning, the VP of HR told a tale about the types of people in the various former ATT elements. He noted that; “the A students went to Bell Labs or ATT, the B students to Western Electric or Long Lines, and the C students to the operating companies”. I tried to deconstruct that remark, initially as humor. But there I was an MIT PhD, having worked at Bell Labs, with all those C students. It was no longer humorous; it was a fundamental definition of “culture”. Culture is a theme that pervades this book, especially in the dicta by Charan.

 Death of Wireline

 The wireline business is the old copper line telephony. I recall that in 2002 I wrote a paper for OSTP, the White House Science Advisor’s Office on the Imminent Collapse of Telecommunications Industry. The point was twofold. First wireline was being disintermediated by wireless and second IP, Internet Protocol, was displacing classic telephone networking. Clearly Seidenberg saw that and his actions to bolster wireless by scale, thus the Bell Atlantic deal and then to sell off many rural properties to companies like Frontier et al was prescient. However the recognition of IP came a bit too late.

 Evolution of Wireless

 Wireless was a displacement technology. It required less capital per subscriber than copper and had shorter evolutionary lifetimes. Namely we see it go from 1G to 5G in relatively short periods as compared to the time between crossbar mechanical switches and electronic switching. Scale is critical because it can drive down the costs. But it is just infrastructure, and the value added is de minimis. Moreover wireless was unlike the old telephone world, there was competition. Dealing with competition was something the old Bell companies had no experience in. One of my early experiences was explaining that in the real world that profit was revenue less expenses whereas in the regulate world profited was a return on assets, no matter how inefficient you may have been. Thus the Seidenberg approach is laid out his typical manner of bringing competing elements together and letting the best one win. The result was a Bell Atlantic victory and a dismemberment of the old NYNEX mobile, a brilliant move.

 FIOS

 Fiber to the home sounds like a great idea. I actually tried it out in the US in the early 2000s after doing some in Europe. However it is very costly. It is tens of thousands per mile just to run the fiber, then costs to acquire and equip customers, and then to have the culture to provide content and maintain customers. The most significant barrier to entry is the CATV incumbents. They are brutal, they hold the high ground, many own the very content you want to provide.

 How Verizon ever managed to present a viable business case is beyond reason. But they did. Here I think Seidenberg may have allowed the folks to go well beyond their capabilities. The Telco people are street fighters where as the Cable folks are strategic warriors. The true barrier to entry is the incumbent, and the Verizon management did not seem to truly grasp that issue. Thus lots of unused fiber. It does not age as well a good wines.

 FLAG

 FLAG was a global fiber network. It was a great idea , a first, and it demanded great skills to implement. The problem there was again culture. As staff requirement were needed they drew from the operating company base. Unfortunately, few if any even had a passport, no less international business skills. The book I believe fails to see the less in this failure.

 MCI Acquisition

 MCI was left hanging after WorldCom collapse. It had a sales culture and its acquisition by Verizon was spot on. It added an element that was missing, the ability to deal with large business customers and provide them with excellent fiber backbone networks. The discussion in the book about this are well worth the read.

 The World of Content

 Probably the biggest business mistake made by the company was the acquisition of AOL and Yahoo. AOL was done in 2015 and Yahoo 2017. I recall that in 1996 I was teaching at Columbia Business School and one case I did was on AOL. I noted that AOL’s business model was defunct and that in many ways it was then just a Potemkin village. Yet 20 years latter after multiple signs of failure Verizon buys it. Then Yahoo. The they all get dumped at great loss to the shareholders. The book lacks any self-reflective understanding of the reasons why this happened.

 Deals, Deals, Deals

 In many ways this is a book about deals. Some were great, MCI for instance, some were disasters, AOL. Seidenberg shows brilliance in executing deals that lie in his plane of competence.

 Missed Opportunities

 The Internet space seems like a major set of missed opportunities. But it has always been a blind spot for Telcos. That is strange since in the late 80s my colleague at NYNEX was building and supporting NYSERNET, the IP based network for NY schools. It later became PSI, one of the first Internet carriers. I recall I asked Bob Kahn, a father of the Internet to give a talk to senior NYNEX management about the Internet in 1987. After the talk the head of MIS came to me and berated me for having such a fool speak. This would never happen, no Internet! This was the cultural base of the missed opportunity.

 However Seidenberg saw some of this with GTE and BBN but the slowness to respond may have been driven by regulatory issues. There also was Genuity, an international carrier populated by NYNEX folks that had a great opportunity but alas went bankrupt. That too was in my view a cultural failure.

 Overall

 The major deficit of this book is the lack of any self-reflection and moreover any assessment of the weaknesses of any of the principals involved. It reads that every step and decision was at times stressful but had flawless results. My assessment is based upon being an inside observer but not an insider. I had come from the competitive world of cable and start ups before rejoining NYNEX/Verizon, and thus I had poor political skills, if any, but strong entrepreneurial capabilities and experience. Thus my assessment is filtered by that predisposition. In my experience, Seidenberg was a brilliant organizational politician and utilized people to their best. He kept the company well situated through a complex period and managed to see it grow exceptionally well. His successors, not so well.

 Finally the style of the book in my opinion is chaotic. It is a staccato of vignettes about one deal after another interspaced with charts of aphorisms by Charan, that real like power points from a Harvard Business School lecture. There is some chronological flow but little exogeneous environment inclusions showing what may have drivers to decisions.

 However, Verizon has lost 50% of its market value in the last year (2022). It had dumped AOL and the other “ego” driven buys and attempts to use 5G as a springboard. However, the management never really comes to ask the key question: “What business are we in”. I would say perhaps the need a Lou Gerstner who resurrected IBM after the collapse of large main frames.