Wednesday, January 11, 2023

Smoke and Mirrors


 The latest flap out of DC is the CPSC threat to ban all natural gas stoves. The argument is based upon some study by Stanford individuals noting levels of methane gas and NO, an oxide of nitrogen, the most significant element in our atmosphere, well above oxygen. 

The study contends:

Natural gas stoves in >40 million U.S. residences release methane (CH4) a potent greenhouse  gas through postmeter leaks and incomplete combustion. We quantified methane released in 53 homes during all phases of stove use: steady-state-off (appliance not in use), steady-state-on (during combustion), and transitory periods of ignition and extinguishment. We estimated that natural gas stoves emit 0.8-1.3% of the gas they use as unburned methane and that total U.S. stove emissions are 28.1 [95% confidence interval: 18.5, 41.2] Gg CH4 year-1. More than three-quarters of methane emissions we measured originated during steady-state-off. Using a 20-year timeframe for methane, annual methane emissions from all gas stoves in U.S. homes have a climate impact comparable to the annual carbon dioxide emissions of 500 000 cars. In addition to methane emissions, co-emitted healthdamaging air pollutants such as nitrogen oxides (NOx) are released into home air and can trigger respiratory diseases. In 32 homes, we measured NO x (NO and NO2) emissions and found them to be linearly related to the amount of natural gas burned (r2 = 0.76; p 0.01). Emissions averaged 21.7 [20.5, 22.9] ng NOx J-1, comprised of 7.8 [7.1, 8.4] ng NO2 J-1 and 14.0 [12.8, 15.1] ng NO J-1. Our data suggest that families who dont use their range hoods or who have poor ventilation can surpass the 1-h national standard of NO2 (100 ppb) within a few minutes of stove usage, particularly in smaller kitchens.

 Also see the other publication.

I would argue that in my opinion and my experience the results are at best useful for a science fair not the basis for a trillion dollar cost for the consumer.

Here are some facts:

1. NO rapidly converts to NO2 which is highly reactive and can be reduced in the presence of other chemicals. 

2. The cause of asthma is highly problematic and the assertion that methane and its products "can" cause asthma in my opinion lack basic clinical evidence

3. The experiments were minimal and not in the least dispositive. It begs two questions; first the variability of emissions based on stoves and residences, second the dispositive cause of asthma. Neither of these issue were discussed. 

 Moreover I suspect, but lack any prooof, that the use of many recent artificial pan coatings may cause a greater risk than either methane or NO.  Personally I use a cast iron fry pan and steel pots, no coatings. Stove usage is 1-2 min for my oatmeal in the AM and 5-15 min for dinner. The stove has an auto cutoff when not in use, no constant flame. Ventilation is good. So I must be penalized based upon in my opinion limited if not shabby "science".

Perhaps this is a combination of the environmentalists zealots plus the IBEW, note the CPSC promoter. 

This is a complex issue that can be studied in the typical scientific dialectic manner. Not by hand picking some one off study.