Friday, November 5, 2010

Employment Stats: Does Anyone Read the Data?

I am continually amazed when the news folks and even most economists report the great news and I would suspect that they never looked at the data. So let's all together look at the facts. They stink!

First we always look at the population and the percent in the labor pool. Remember that they calculate the stats on the pool numbers not what should be in the pool. We use Jan 2005 as the baseline date for our calculation of what should be in the pool. We show that below:

Based upon that we see the 9.6% and the actual number based on baseline well in excess of 12% and holding. Ms Romer where are when we need you, I forgot you are teaching this out in California!

To see the details we have included the stats for the baseline.

Now to the details, just one layer down to the per industry numbers. The following is the employment change month over month.

Note the Government increase, which is dominated by Ed and Health! Also look at the drop in core manufacturing. This is certainly NOT an improvement! We have less people really working for those on the dole.

The percent in each category from 2005 baseline is shown below. This depicts the slow but relentless change in our economy.

We further depict this as a percent change over the period as below. This highlights in some detail what we have been speaking about:

The total change per month for the year we depict below and highlight the dole jobs, those real workers pay taxes for.

Finally we depict the breakout for October:

In conclusion we believe the data shows we are gloomier than ever!