Friday, April 6, 2012

Employment: April 2012

Let us start with the Romer Curve update. As expected she had predicted that we would be very well off by this time, in fact returning to normal, just spend a trillion! But somehow the economy did not follow her advice.

This chart shows the variance, and as we see it is again consistently growing. Not a surprise.

This is chart showing the denominator used to calculate the unemployment. Again it remains substantially below what it was before.

Finally we can see this in detail.Remember that with a growing population of well over 250,000 per month, and the baseline of having 45.5% of the population employed, just to keep unemployment fixed we need 45.5% of 250,000 new jobs, that is 120,000 new jobs to stand still! We allegedly got 120,000, or 0 above standing still. That means we effectively added nothing! Since we grow at 3 million per year and again 1.5 million new jobs per year would be required to stand still! The Administration claims 3 million plus new jobs in their 3+ years, if you deduct the stand still numbers you are still under water. So details count!