Friday, June 7, 2013

Employment June 2013

The current employment data brings little good news. Let us examine it as we always do by looking at the Romer Curve, that now infamous prediction of how well the current administration was to do based upon the wisdom of the economists.
Now according to Romer we would well into a full recovery. Yet the real world has at best stalled.
The above is her error curves demonstrating the digging of an ever deeper hole.
Here we can see some light. There is a continuing growth in those participating in the work force. True unemployment is now about 10.25% down from the 12+% at the peak but not really where we need it to be.
The above shows the narrowing of the gap between population and Employment. In a sense we are making some slow progress.
However when we look at the percent of workforce employed we still see that deadly and system drop. That is the problem to be addressed.