Thursday, July 25, 2013

Recession Statistics Update 2013

From time to time we examine the Recession Stats from the St Louis Fed. They are not too heart warming.
First, Industrial Production is lagging from the average.
Second, Income is the worst factor. People are not being paid. This is clearly the worse recovery from this perspective.
Then as we look at Employment it too is slow. Nothing new here except it is defining a new bottom.
Retail sales is on par, which means people are spending but not investing.
The GDP is defining a new bottom as we have seen. Now let us examine the elements of the GDP:
Personal consumption is low, also defining a bottom.

Private Investment is on par.
Government spending is the lowest yet. One wonders what is happening here. Then we have Exports:
And finally Imports:
The news is not good some five years after the bottom. Then again there were no real expectations from the team in place.