Friday, November 6, 2015

Employment November 2015: Not Really That Good

If we look at the most recent numbers we see a 5% unemployment but a still weak participation rate. Seven years later we are seeing the Romer predictions of January 2009. So much for economists.
The participation rate is still bottomed out and we really see little movement. This is a structural problem.
Although Government employment remains flat as a percent we see Education and Health keep climbing. This is a real problem since they are now paid more and more by the taxpayer.
The plot above is core vs Government by people and the ratio of core to Govt is flattening.
The above shows the percent change over the last ten years and E&H has the largest percent and Manufacturing the greatest decline. This is the concern that few mention. It was manufacturing that paid for H&E and this switch is also a systemic problem.
The above is the comparison between now and ten years ago. Again Ed and Health shows a great pop up.
Finally the above shows the current details.

Overall the 5% is nice but participation is too low and the growth is in the wrong places. Why we get no discussion of this is amazing! There is still a very rocky road.