Saturday, December 5, 2015

Employment December 2015

We have been following employment for seven years now and the pattern is clear; there is a large systemic gap in permanently unemployed and the ratio of those employed outside Government to inside Government is decreasing to almost 1:1. Perhaps at some time some folks will take notice.
First our standard curve. Unemployment per the Government is down but the unemployment using 2006 participation rates is still in excess of 7%.
Population continues to increase and the employment continues to grow keeping the gap at the point with a lower participation rate. There is no way we can recover to 2006.

This shows the participation rate bottoming out with no movement forward.
The above details the gap between actual increase and target increases.
Finally the above details the systemic unemployed, now about 3.5 million. Had we recovered these numbers we would have a much healthier economy with less money going to these people and more tax revenue generated.

It should also be noted that starting in 2016 we will see the ACA taxes increase significantly and this should be a throttle on any consumer growth.