Friday, May 26, 2017

Global Warming?

Over the past 25 years we have been monitoring the bloom dates of four Hemerocallis species. Namely H. flava, minor, dumortieri, middendorfii. We measure the date of bloom from the start date of the year. Thus a data of bloom of 125 is 125 days from January 1 of the year. Now the smaller the bloom date the earlier the bloom.

So what does it have to do with Global Warming. Well over a 25 year period the blooming data is a function of the integral of total input heat. Daylight hours, location, soil conditions etc have all been held constant. The more heat the earlier the bloom.

Now here are the four flowers:

We see in the data a minimal if any trend downwards, namely more heating. In fact if the CO2 lever were greater we would expect even faster blooming.

Thus this set of canaries in the mine have not been tweeting too much if at all. Just some facts from the front.