The FED Balance Sheet is shown above as of yesterday. Note that not much has changed.
Note the difference. Here we have removed the Mortgage Securities. Mostly Treasuries. Soon they must begin to unload this junk and at a much higher interest rate.
Based on this, the yield curve, the Trump Tax Plan, we expect significant inflation over the next three years. That will be one way to reduce the debt. I believe they did that in Germany in the 1920!
Wednesday, November 29, 2017
Tuesday, November 28, 2017
Freedom of Speech?
Just saw this on China Daily. Worth thinking about.
The open trial of Peng and Lee will also help the public to know that the two defendants attempted to subvert State political power by forming online chat groups, and used them in a planned way to spread the idea of political subversion. Their activities violated China's Constitution and laws. And no country, let alone China, will tolerate such activities. The case once again shows the judiciary's determination and ability to safeguard State security and maintain social stability in accordance with the law.
No other comments!
The open trial of Peng and Lee will also help the public to know that the two defendants attempted to subvert State political power by forming online chat groups, and used them in a planned way to spread the idea of political subversion. Their activities violated China's Constitution and laws. And no country, let alone China, will tolerate such activities. The case once again shows the judiciary's determination and ability to safeguard State security and maintain social stability in accordance with the law.
No other comments!
Labels:
China
Yikes! Look at the Yield Curve!
Look at this yield curve. The short term is exploding and long term collapsing. That means in the long term there is no anticipation of growth but that short term there is great uncertainty!
The above clearly makes this point. Look at the spread, going to zero!
The above clearly makes this point. Look at the spread, going to zero!
Labels:
Economy
Sunday, November 26, 2017
More on Trump Tax
Dear Congressman Frelinghuysen,
I wish to bring to your attention two related issues. The
first is the imposition of imputed income on Graduate students in the US. The
second is Government funding of foreign students by various Government
agencies. Both issues present clear and present dangers to the security of the
United States. I base these conclusions on personal knowledge at academic
institutions as well as my extensive international business experience in over
twenty countries.
Permit me to lay out the details related thereto:
1 My background is a combination of academic and business actions. I hold a PhD from MIT in Electrical Engineering. I have been on the faculties of almost a half a dozen institutions including MIT, Columbia, GWU, and the Beijing University of Economics and Finance. I have personally started and operated companies in over twenty countries with offices in Moscow, Prague, Warsaw, and Athens. Most recently I returned to MIT from 2005 through 2012 to assist a half dozen Doctoral students. I also work with colleagues at Columbia Cancer Center in New York.
I have had extensive experience in major universities and
also as an entrepreneur having started and/or financed some thirty-five
companies. As such I have a somewhat unique set of experiences and expertise
regarding the issue which I put before you in this correspondence. I also have
been a resident of your District for nearly forty years.
2 The New House Tax Code materially changes the ability of Graduate students to finance their education
The new Tax proposal by the House makes some major
material changes to various elements of the tax code. This correspondence
refers mainly to that regarding the imposition of an imputed income on Graduate
students resulting from being a teaching or research assistant. My argument
herein demonstrates that this change can and in my opinion will cause
irreparable harm to the United States. Simply it will drive the remaining US
citizen grad students out of Grad school, except for that small amount from
families independently wealthy and capable of sending a student to such
institution. However my experience is that most if not almost all students in
Grad school for science and technology come from families of lesser means. In
my own case I worked my way through MIT as an Instructor, and could not have
done so under the proposed tax laws. In fact not being able to have done so
would have resulted in thousands of lost jobs in our economy from the many
companies I was able to start and/or finance.
3 Currently almost 80% of Graduate students in Science and Engineering are foreign.
The NY Times has a piece on the increasing percent of
engineering graduate students who are foreign. They state:
At the
undergraduate level, 80 percent are United States residents. At the graduate
level, the number is reversed: About 80 percent hail from India, China, Korea,
Turkey and other foreign countries.
This is a startling figure but one should ask; who is
paying? Having spent an almost sixty years career in and out of Academia, I can
make the following observations related thereto.
1. In the late 1950s the US Government made a major push
to create more engineers and scientists. There were scholarships and
institutions were incentivized to follow through. There were many scholarships
and fellowships specifically for these types of degrees. Furthermore tuition
was low, due mainly to the fact that overhead at Universities was minimal.
Graduate fellowships were numerous, and were all performance related. If one
did well in the right undergraduate curriculum then Grad school was effectively
free. These graduates then went to the work force and created the technologies
that underpin our national defense and competitive technologies. This is no
longer the case.
2. Most of the grad students were first generation,
coming from families that in many cases did not even graduate from a college. Frequently
engineering and science was an entry point for the lower economic classes.
Families with money often sent their children to exclusive schools and then in
to banking or law.
3. Upon graduation jobs were available, especially for
Graduate students with good degrees. Engineers and scientists entered areas
such as solid state design, RF engineering, and the like. People during this
period built things as compared to today's social media types who
"code" screens which engage the users but one can argue has little
value.
4. At that time places like Silicon Valley were
inexpensive, allowing for a diverse group of workers. Housing was plentiful; and
at reasonable prices. Startups made "real stuff", not just software
enhancements.
In contrast, in today's world:
1. Almost all high tech grad students are funded by the U.S.
Government. Yet 80% are foreign students who are also funded by the taxpayers.
Those Chinese, Iranian, Syrian, grad students are funded by US tax dollars.
They finish on our tax dollars and return home. In the case of the Chinese
students they often bring this expertise back to Chinese companies and then these
companies directly compete with the US. That is true in both for commercial and
military entities.
2. US undergrads are often financially burdened when they
finish their undergrad and thus are pressured to work and pay back the loans as
well as taxes. As a side note the new Trump Tax Plan makes the student loan no
longer deductible, another burden. The taxes taken from American students, and
others, will then go to support the 80% of the grad students who are foreign.
3. What can be done? I believe it is simple; look back to
the 1950s. Eisenhower may very well turn out to be our greatest President. His
Administration saw the threat and at the same time the opportunity. The found
ways to fund high performing undergrad tech students. Then make it a level
playing field for US citizen students, especially if the taxpayer is footing
the bill, the taxpayer should have preference. One should put a finger on the
scale for US students.
4 Many, a great majority of truth be told, of the foreign Graduate students have their education funded by the US Government via Research Grants to Faculty members.
In my experience at MIT and other institutions, to this
current day, Grad students are funded by research grants almost exclusively
from US Government entities. Of the six doctoral students I assisted from 2005
through 2012 not one was an American citizen. Only one remained in the US after
marrying an American citizen. All others returned to their country of origin.
They took with them expertise vital to the success of the US. In addition
without exception they were funded by DoD or DoD related research!
5 Moreover many of the foreign Graduate students in high tech such as Electrical Engineering and Computer Science are funded by DoD or similar national security sources.
The problem is not just that the foreign students are here
and funded by US entities but that many of these in critical areas are funded
by US DoD or related entities.
6 Graduating Foreign Students all too frequently return to their homes unable to remain productive in the U.S.
I had tried on multiple and repeated times to try and
keep the students here. They wanted to stay. Yet Immigration Laws prevent this
from happening. This results in the loss of intellectual capital paid for by
the taxpayer and the transfer of this capital to risky if not outright hostile
countries.
7 Many of the high tech foreign Graduate students returning to their countries after having been financed by DoD or related Government sources find their way into the home military or intelligence agencies. As a result many foreign Graduate students are being educated by US Taxpayers via DoD or related Government sources and return to pose potential long term threats to the security of the United States.
I have seen many of these students returning to their
home countries and finding positions in the defense or related industries. They
have no choice since the U.S. will not accept them as potential citizens. This
means that we really must re-examine our immigration laws regarding high tech
and bio related graduate students. We must try to retain them, give then
flexibility, no tie them to some work visa structure which benefits an employer
but not eh U.S. If we are to invest them we then want the ability to gain the
return on that investment.
8 The current Tax Code as noted below allows for US students to NOT include imputed tuition costs if they are Teaching or Research Assistants (TA or RA).
Namely Section
117 (c) allows for the exclusion of imputed tuition costs. That is highly
acceptable. See Appendix A.
9 The new House proposal eliminates the student’s ability NOT to include the imputed costs. In fact it makes the student include them which often dramatically increases the burden on US students making it impossible to attend Graduate School
Now
quoting from the House Bill, on p 96 we have
SEC.
1204. REPEAL OF OTHER PROVISIONS RELATING TO EDUCATION. (a) IN GENERAL.—Subchapter B of chapter 1 is amended—
(1) in part VII by striking sections 221
and tons in the table of sections for such part), (2) in part VII by striking
sections 135 and 127 (and by striking the items relating to such sections in
the table of sections for such part), and (3) by striking subsection (d) of section 117.
And on p
98 of the House Bill we see:
(e) CONFORMING AMENDMENTS RELATING TO SEC11 TION
117(d).— (1) Section 117(c) (1) is
amended— (A) by striking ‘‘subsections (a) and (d)’’ and inserting ‘‘subsection
(a)’’, and (B) by striking ‘‘or qualified tuition reduction’’.
Namely
the law is changed to allow for a imputed income resulting from an
assistantship.
10 The combined results of funding foreign students and now taxing US students for unearned imputed income creates a clear strategic threat to the United States. In fact this is a clear and present danger. It strengthens our adversaries while debilitating the U.S to combat these adversaries.
The
proposed taxing of Grad School tuition for Research Students would drive the
20% of American Grad students to 0% it is the "Make America Last"
Act. We would be left with 100% Chinese, Iranian, Indian, Vietnamese etc
students who will get all of our ideas paid by Government dollars and take it
home to demolish our economy. Frankly this is one of the dumbest ideas I have
ever seen. I managed to succeed due to Eisenhower and his innovations. Remember
Admiral Yamamoto went to Harvard, he then bombed Pearl Harbor. We do not want
to repeat that! The proposed new Tax Plan as many destructive elements. It
helps the rich but destroys our future. For example, the journal Nature states:
Graduate students, who receive
the lion’s share of tuition waivers, would be most affected. And 60% of the
145,000 students who get tuition reductions each year are working in science,
engineering, technology and mathematics fields, the US Department of Education
estimates. The amount of money that the government would reap from these taxes
would be minuscule, given the $20.5-trillion national debt. But it could weigh
heavily on young scientists. Take a hypothetical PhD student at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in Cambridge, in receipt of a $23,844
NIH stipend. Under the current system, she would pay very little in taxes. The
new law would add her $49,000 MIT tuition bill to her taxable income as though
she were paid a $73,000 salary — an amount she never actually sees. This would
add thousands of dollars to her tax burden.
Thus, a
student would get about $24,000 plus an imputed say $50,000. Under the old plan
they paid tax on $24,000. On the new plan it tax on $74,000. Namely with a
$12,000 deduction it would be 15% of $62,000 or $9300. That is a 39% tax rate!
Plus 3.5% for FICA plus 3% for Medicare plus in Massachusetts an added 8%. This
is a 53.5% Tax Rate!
Now we
already have 80% of the Grad students funded by their Governments, China and
Iran. The remaining 20% are US and are paying the burden. So what will happen?
Drug development, high tech development etc will all migrate to these
countries. Not to mention weapons development. Eisenhower saw the need for a
strong technology core. In contrast, Team Trump wants to destroy whatever
future we may have had.
11 Some argue that the new House Bill has no true effect. They are grossly in error.
The
recent House Tax Bill eliminates the ability of Grad students to not pay tax on
a Teaching or Research Assistant-ship. Namely it means that they must pay tax
on $50,000 or more of money never received. Well they will destroy America as
we know it. Perhaps that was the intent of the Republicans, I leave that to
them. But Forbes has a writer who declares:
On the chopping block in House
Republicans’ bill is section 117(d) of the Internal Revenue Code, which exempts
qualified tuition waivers from taxation. Many graduate students work as
teaching or research assistance while completing their studies; universities
often waive their tuition and provide a small living stipend as compensation.
The House plan would treat these tuition waivers as taxable income, which
graduate students fear could lead to annual tax hikes of several thousand
dollars. Anxiety among graduate students and those considering graduate education
is understandable. But what the narrative around this provision has missed is
that the House bill does not touch another provision of the tax code: section
117(a). This section provides that scholarships used to pay tuition and fees
are not considered taxable income. The catch is that universities which provide
these scholarships cannot stipulate that students work as teaching or research
assistants as a condition of receiving them. This is the main difference
between scholarships and qualified tuition waivers: universities can require
students to work as a condition of receiving the latter, but not the former.
Under current law, both scholarships and tuition waivers are not taxable. But
the House bill draws a distinction between the two. Under the proposal,
universities can still reduce their students’ tuition bills without incurring
tax consequences. However, if graduate students work as teaching or research
assistants as a condition of getting that tuition help, then the amount of
tuition reduction would be considered taxable income. Universities that wish to
avoid saddling their graduate students with large tax bills therefore have an
easy way out. They can reclassify their qualified tuition waivers as
scholarships...
This is
grossly false. The RA cost is charged to the research grant, usually a
Government contract, and thus is netted to zero for the University. As a
Scholarship it is not netted against the grant and thus comes out of the
endowments or other similar funds. Perhaps for a TA this would work but there
are fewer TAs and more RAs.
The
main question is; who put this element in the Tax Bill and why? Now in my
experience, Congress never really writes anything, Lobbyists do. So follow the
money. Who did this?
12 To remedy this the US should promptly take the actions of: (i) removing the tax burden of section 117 as proposed by the House, and (ii) prohibiting the funding of students from hostile or potentially hostile countries by US agencies which research could be considered a threat to the US security or economy. Overall, Government should be looking out for the best interests of Americans. That means we need an understanding of the Eisenhower days, just after Sputnik. We managed to support the research areas and education of those most critical to our economy and security. The payoff lasted for decades. Now however is waning and just the opposite is occurring. Namely we are driving US students out with maniacal tax stipulations while funding the education and strategic capabilities of our adversaries, military and industrial.
I
strongly recommend that the above recommendations be considered. I greatly
appreciate your opposition to the Bill but after consideration this section can
and I assure you shall cause irreparable harm to the United States! Its
inclusion reflects a gross ignorance of what has allowed the US to be
successful after WW II. This must be corrected promptly.
Very
truly yours,
Appendix
A
26 U.S. Code § 117 - Qualified scholarships
Qualified scholarships
Gross income does not include any amount
received as a qualified scholarship by an individual who is a candidate for a
degree at an educational organization described in section 170(b) (1) (A) (ii).
(1) In general: The term “qualified
scholarship” means any amount received by an individual as a scholarship or
fellowship grant to the extent the individual establishes that, in accordance
with the conditions of the grant, such amount was used for qualified tuition
and related expenses.
(2) Qualified tuition and related expenses for
purposes of paragraph (1), the term “qualified tuition and related expenses”
means—
(A) Tuition and fees
required for the enrollment or attendance of a student at an educational
organization described in section 170(b) (1) (A) (ii), and
(B) Fees, books, supplies,
and equipment required for courses of instruction at such an educational
organization.
(1) In general Except as provided in
paragraph (2), subsections (a) and (d) shall not apply to that portion of any
amount received which represents payment for teaching, research, or other
services by the student required as a condition for receiving the qualified scholarship
or qualified tuition reduction.
(A) The National Health
Service Corps Scholarship Program under section 338A (g) (1) (A) of the Public
Health Service Act,
(B) the Armed Forces Health
Professions Scholarship and Financial Assistance program under subchapter I of chapter
105 of title 10, United States Code, or
(C) A comprehensive student
work-learning-service program (as defined in section 448(e) of the Higher
Education Act of 1965) operated by a work college (as defined in such section).
(2) Qualified tuition reduction For
purposes of this subsection, the term “qualified tuition reduction” means the
amount of any reduction in tuition provided to an employee of an organization
described in section 170(b)(1)(A)(ii) for the education (below the graduate
level) at such organization (or another organization described in section
170(b)(1)(A)(ii)) of—
(B) Any person treated as an
employee (or whose use is treated as an employee use) under the rules of
section 132(h).
Paragraph (1) shall apply with respect to
any qualified tuition reduction provided with respect to any highly compensated
employee only if such reduction is available on substantially the same terms to
each member of a group of employees which is defined under a reasonable
classification set up by the employer which does not discriminate in favor of
highly compensated employees (within the meaning of section 414(q)). For
purposes of this paragraph, the term “highly compensated employee” has the
meaning given such term by section 414(q).
(5) Special rules for teaching and research
assistants In the case of the education of an individual who is a
graduate student at an educational organization described in section
170(b)(1)(A)(ii) and who is engaged in teaching or research activities for such
organization, paragraph (2) shall be applied as if it did not contain the
phrase “(below the graduate level)”.
Labels:
Economy
Eric Ackerman and the Old World of Intelligence: UK Style
The book by Jackson and Hayson, Covert Radar and SignalsInterception, is a well done presentation of the life and accomplishments
of Eric Ackerman, one of the many brave and brilliant people who worked for R.V.
Jones during WW II. Ackerman is a bit unique because of his brilliance in the
ever developing electronic technologies combined with his daring in taking to
the field at the time of war the systems used to penetrate and defat the German
systems. Eric grew up in somewhat humble beginnings and his schooling was in a
technical school. Despite these limitations, he managed to become one of
Jones’s stars and an RAF officer, albeit not an active pilot.
The book covers Eric from his early life through the War and
then into the Cold War. Eric was instrumental in a variety of signal
intelligence and became almost a one man NSA, as the Americans would develop.
Eric had the ability to understand enemy systems and techniques and then
rapidly develop methods and systems to compromise them. Often he performed
these tasks near or behind enemy lines and often at great personal peril.
The book provides full details on many of these exploits. It
also provides a window to some of the personal elements of Eric’s life, his marriage
and his family.
I had the good fortune of working with Eric Ackerman from
1977 through 1980. I was his boss t COMSAT, but in many ways I was learning
from him. I inherited Eric from his staff slot at COMSAT Labs. In 1977 I was at
COMSAT Corporate, for two years since coming down from MIT. My experience was
academic as well as in the military radar and Intel worlds. So unbeknownst to
me Eric and I had somewhat a similar path, although during differing Wars. I
had been approached by Government agencies to build a set of small earth
stations and the related network of satellites and infrastructure for what was
to be the verification systems on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty with the
US, UK and USSR. I had done a preliminary system design and the “customer” was
happy and wanted it Implemented.
Thus I needed more folks and as luck would have it, Eric
showed up at my office and said: “I was told to report to you. What do you want
me to do?” Eric was then about 58, my father’s age and I was mid 30s on my way
to 40. Yet one thing I knew was, unlike so many of today’s techies, I saw great
deal of value to those who had come before me. Thus began my three years with
Eric.
We assembled a team and designed the system in detail. Then
we were awarded the contract to build it. That we did in record time, despite
the massive political nature of COMSAT. Nearly everyone wanted a piece of it,
and without the skill of Eric navigating the political and technical waters we
would never have delivered the world’s first VSAT, or very small aperture
satellite system. It went out to our customer and passed all tests with flying
colors. Then things got really interesting. I had no idea who Eric was other
than a good Brit system designer and one who had fantastic people skills. So
when I got a significant promotion, building all of COMSAT’s equipment
deliverables I chose Eric as my Chief Engineer.
Then Eric and I went out to meet our “customer”. We were to
discuss the details of full implementation and deployment. I had been seconded
to U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency as part of the Comprehensive Test
Ban Treaty team so I had become more involved in details, while keeping my ever
expanding corporate duties. I relied on Eric more each day. On this visit to
our “customer” we both had security clearances and I had a bunch more but when
we got to the gate Eric was denied entry. We were told by Security at this
“customer” that a Brit engineer was not allowed on the premises, period.
Besides they asked: “Who is this Ackerman anyway?” I did not know even then of
Eric’s background. We had traveled a long distance from Washington and here I
had to leave Eric in the hallway all day! I felt mortified. After all, we had
apparently done all we should have and here is some Government clerk telling us
off.
After the meeting we took a flight back to Washington via
Chicago. As luck would have it there was a massive blizzard and what would have
been just a few hours of air flight ended up being half a day, waiting, in
holding patterns, waiting etc. This is when I got to really know Eric. In those
days I could bump to First Class on a 727 and smoking was allowed and Scotch
flowed like water. Eric was in heaven. I apologized again for his rather shabby
treatment and, after a few Scotches, Eric started telling me the past, and my
“war stories” paled by comparison to his. I soon learned of R.V. Jones, then of
his flights in and out of rather risky spots, his tricks played on the Germans,
then his time doing the same on the Soviets. The tales in this book are but a
few I became privy to. All in that half empty First Class cabin trying to get
to Chicago. The worse the flight got, the more Eric had of the Scotch and the
more detailed the stories. Eric was truly a hero in his own day.
I found that I had a group in my own Division doing what
was, let us say, unsanctioned side work. Needing to find out what was going on
I asked Eric if he had any ideas. Well, Le Carre step aside! I was invited to
meet Eric and his colleagues at a small bar on Massachusetts Avenue, just a bit
down from the British Embassy. It was a warm autumn day and at abbot 2 PM. I
entered the bar. It was dark and near empty except for a cloud of smoke from
the booth at the rear. I walked back. There was Eric with several of his old
colleagues, all Brits. I now had a fully experienced Intel operation. Needless
to say they did a splendid job solving my problem and keeping the results
somewhere in the British Embassy. To this day I wonder if it is still in some
archive in some part of MI whatever.
I left Washington in 1980 to go to New York, out of that
world of electronic intel but kept in touch with Eric. I visited his farm and
met his two sons and of course his wonderful wife. But unlike the depiction in
book, the farm was a version of "Faulty Towers" with animals! We saw
an old farm, with rather weathered barn, and rabbits, chickens, sheep and a
mass of other animals just wandering around. You see, a farm is not something
one retires to, it is something one retires from! As Keynes had noted in his
famous test, “A man, who does well in life, may have the good fortune to retire
and write books and do experimental agriculture” Keynes meant “gardening” not
the establishment of a full agricultural complex! But Eric and his wife were happy,
ecstatic to be exact, and their sons seemed to be prospering. We had our
scotches reminisced about the old days, I was now in the movie business, and
departed, regrettably not to meet again.
Thus the Eric I knew was a quiet but resourceful man, a gentleman
in the best use of the term, one who knew how to approach and solve any
problem, and one who was loyal to the best of extremes, and happy with his
animals! I was honored to have spent a brief time with him and his help allowed
me and others to move forward on our careers while remembering a good friend.
A couple of decades later I had started a telecom and fiber
business in Central and Eastern Europe, with offices in Moscow, Prague and
Warsaw. I chatted with my Moscow and Czech colleagues, all former technical
people in the old adversary, and recounted my friend and colleague Eric. The US
“customer” may not have heard of Eric but they clearly knew and respected him.
The mere fact that I was associated with him gave me credibility well above
anything else that I may have personally achieved.
Thus I was delighted to see and read this work about a dear
old friend. It presents his life during his youth and during the War. Eric took
technology to war on a personal basis. The book presents this exceptionally
well and uses Eric as an example of some of the best of the best. Eric would
take the work in Jonses’ lab and test it out in true combat conditions. These
tales are told again and again. In addition the book examines the post war
Intel in the case of the Soviets.
Overall the book is good. It does suffer from several
weaknesses which I shall relate here.
1. It really should have an editor to smooth out the flow of
information. For the text tends to vacillate between historical reports and personal
details.
2. The books by R. V. Jones displayed an ability to present
the technology in a somewhat readable form. This seems in my opinion to be
lacking in this book. The many systems that Eric worked on should be described
so that the average reader could understand the issues at hand.
3. Eric’s personality did not come through as well as it
should have. Then again since I spent three years with Eric toward the end of
his life I have a view which may not be that of those who had known him earlier.
In my above recollections I tried to demonstrate Eric as creative, supportive
and especially loyal. Eric was one of those few friends who would go to then
ends of the earth to help you.
I considered Eric a good friend and in many ways a superb
teacher. Decades later when I returned to MIT I tried to explain to today’s
students how "real engineers" function, and I used Eric as a prime
example. In many ways we should really miss the Erics of the past. Today we
have an overabundance of Internet “techys” whose egos and overblown self-worth
belie the real engineering expertise of those who established the platforms
upon which they build.
Labels:
Commentary
Friday, November 24, 2017
How Not to Do R&D
I am always amazed when political figures opine on R&D. One can suspect that they can say whatever they want since their peers are equally clueless. Now a piece in Project Syndicate, that left wing blog for internationalists states:
A paradigmatic
example is the American Telephone and Telegraph Company (AT&T) and
its Bell Labs, a story meticulously recounted by Jon Gertner in his 2012
book The Idea Factory.
The research, discoveries, and products that emerged from this single
entity are astounding: not only reliable relays and switches for
landline telephony, but also radar, lasers, the transistor, the
integrated circuit, the fax machine, satellite communications, Shannon’s information theory,
the theory of computation, six sigma quality control, and even cosmic
microwave background radiation. All of this happened inside a corporate
behemoth, which could afford the lab thanks to its monopoly on local
telephony and on the equipment used to provide the service, which was
manufactured by AT&T’s subsidiary, Western Electric.AT&T’s monopoly
position was always controversial in the competition-minded US
regulatory system. So the company had to earn the right to be a
monopolist by constantly improving its service and using its research
power for national purposes such as military defense. To renew its
corporate charter in 1956, it even had to agree to license all of its
old patents royalty-free and to license all new patents at low cost. If
AT&T had to be a monopoly, it had to be a monopoly that benefited
society at large, not just its shareholders, through breakthrough
research. ...As societies consider their R&D strategies, they must find ways to
coax their largest corporations into a more AT&T-like bargain. If
citizens are to tolerate or even support these companies’ power,
companies must use it in ways that bring outsize benefits to the rest of
society. Their R&D budgets, their patent history, and their
innovations are part of what they should brag about in public.
I reviewed the book by Gertner and in that review detailed his many fallacies. AT&T ran Bell Labs to maximize the profits of the Bell System, NOT to advance technology. Remember that AT&T had profit based on a percent return on invested capital. Its operating costs were guaranteed in its rate base. Thus to maximize profit you built the most inefficient and capital intensive system possible! I know because I was there. As to Corporate R&D, the author should look. Corporations all too often "buy" new ideas, ideas generated in the cauldron of a free and open R&D environment. Look at the pharma business. Yes they do some R&D but they also but successful start ups. Look at immunotherapy and CAR-T cells as an example.
It is not surprising that a Harvard Prof would opine in this manner. One must have done something real to understand how the system functions. In my opinion, reading third hand material, and fallacious analyses, does not get you there. Socializing companies is not the answer.
Labels:
Technology
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