Popper, Open Society and Death of Capitalism?

From Popper's Open Society: 

Economic historicism is the method applied by Marx to an analysis of the impending changes in our society. According to Marx, every particular social system must destroy itself, simply because it must create the forces which produce the next historical period. A sufficiently penetrating analysis of the feudal system, undertaken shortly before the industrial revolution, might have led to the detection of the forces which were about to destroy feudalism, and to the prediction of the most important characteristics of the coming period, capitalism. Similarly, an analysis of the development of capitalism might enable us to detect the forces which work for its destruction, and to predict the most important characteristics of the new historical period which lies ahead of us. For there is surely no reason to believe that capitalism, of all social systems, will last for ever. On the contrary, the material conditions of production, and with them, the ways of human life, have never changed so quickly as they have done under capitalism. 

By changing its own foundations in this way, capitalism is bound to transform itself, and to produce a new period in the history of mankind. According to Marx’s method, the principles of which have been discussed above, the fundamental or essential 1 forces which will destroy or transform capitalism must be searched for in the evolution of the material means of production. Once these fundamental forces have been discovered, it is possible to trace their influence upon the social relationships between classes as well as upon the juridical and political systems. The analysis of the fundamental economic forces and the suicidal historical tendencies of the period which he called ‘ capitalism ’ was undertaken by Marx in Capital, the great work of his life. The historical period and the economic system he dealt with was that of western Europe and especially England, from about the middle of the eighteenth century to 1867...

 Now Popper was not a Marxist by his own admission, and this presentation was a discussion critical of Marx in his long work on the Open Society. It was reflective, however, of the belief that there may be a "scientific" progression in society which was inevitable. Yet when one looks backward in society for the trends which are used as inevitable looking forward one makes the very mistakes that Marx inevitably does.

Marxism as transformed in Russia to communism, assumed rigid laws which allegedly were found by Marx predicting the flow of society. The argument that Socialism is inevitable and then a communistic state have already been shown in error. Moreover the very definition of socialism is rant with distortions so no clear end point is ascertainable. 

However it is worth reading Popper and then ask how his acolyte is interpreting his words.

 

An Interesting Study

The old adage, "seek and ye shall find", often applies to many things. In an Australian Medical Journal they published a paper measuring over diagnosis. The results for men are shown below. As would be expected the melanoma in situ is high for Australia but it is the same in many similar regions. The reason is very early diagnosis of moving melanocytes which may never become a real melanoma.

Thyroid is due to incidental findings of small micro-carcinomas which most likely would never go anywhere. Prostate cancers are the same, yet there are those which can be very aggressive.

This results again begs the issue; what is cancer?

Individualism: Lost in Translation?

The current Bishop of Rome is again condemning individualism. Let us be clear, individualism is the fundamental belief in the equality of each person, each individual, and the rejection of the collective. It is a principal one can strongly argue is consonant with New Testament teachings, perhaps excluding some of Paul. Individualism is the principle by which each person has the same rights as every other and that the persons individual actions count not those of the collective.

In a Vatican release for the colossus at Davos the Bishop states:

In these years, the World Economic Forum has offered an opportunity for the engagement of diverse stakeholders to explore innovative and effective ways of building a better world. It has also provided an arena where political will and mutual cooperation can be guided and strengthened in overcoming the isolationism, individualism and ideological colonization that sadly characterizes too much contemporary debate. 

One would find it rather difficult to relate colonization with individualism, in fact it was the Colonial efforts of many countries that destroyed the very individualism that made for the lands before their capture. Slavery is in essence a destruction of individualism and it was a fundamental element of Colonial control.

Again we must go back to the battle between Ockham and John XXII to see the initial growth of individualism. Salvation is an individual act, an act of freedom by the person and not the collective. Marxism is fundamentally a belief in the collective and a rejection of the individual.

How Much Longer for Copper?

Almost 20 years ago I wrote a piece commenting on the collapse of the old telecom industry, meaning copper. The reason was simple; wireless. Over these two decades for a moment I thought fiber had a chance but alas besides costs, the real barrier to entry was the franchise and greed of local town managers. Tried it but the cable companies always told the town they could get more from us than the cable guys. Deadly embrace, never worked. The towns we tried still 20 years later are stuck with cable companies. In my NH residence served by a biggy we are lucky to get 10 Mbps down and 500 Kbps up.

Now we see the collapse of Frontier. As Ars Technica notes:

Frontier has been losing customers and reducing its staff. Its residential-customer base dropped from 4.15 million to 3.81 million in the 12-month period ending September 30, 2019, including a loss of 90,000 customers in the most recent quarter. Also in that 12-month period, Frontier's business-customer base declined from 422,000 to 381,000. Meanwhile, Frontier had 19,132 employees as of September 30, 2019, down from 21,375 one year earlier.

 This is a classic example of the Greater Fool Theory. Namely the old RBOCs dumped their old copper on these guys and well no surprise. Now we can ask; what is the future of telecom? Yahoo vs HBO?

Happy 101!

My Father's 101st birthday. Here he is after his first day "on the job" at NYPD. Same Precinct as his Father was in, 6th in Manhattan. Yep, that's me.

Precision Medicine: Its Future

A decade ago there was a big push for the area of Precision Medicine. In reality it has turned into more of a personalized medicine and the biggest focus has been on cancer therapeutics. JAMA has noted:

Oncology has been the primary focus of precision medicine. One recent analysis by the IQVIA Institute found that 97 new anticancer medications have been approved since 2011. A 2018 study published in JAMA Oncology found that 31 genome-targeted or genome-informed anticancer drugs were in use as of January 2018. Precision oncology has had some major successes. Imatinib has a 95% response rate in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia and extends quality-adjusted life by about 9 years; venetoclax has an 80% response rate in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia who have a 17p deletion. The new chimeric antigen receptor T cell (CAR-T) therapy tisagenlecleucel has a 62% remission rate at 24 months among patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia. And yet, the overall effect of precision medicine on care for patients with cancer has been modest. The 2018 JAMA Oncology study estimates that only 8% of patients with cancer are eligible for precision medications approved as of January 2018 and only 5% would actually benefit from them. Even among patients who respond, incremental survival provided by many drugs is measured in months. Partly because of cost-effectiveness concerns, of the 54 new anticancer drugs launched between 2013 and 2017, only 80% were available in Germany by the end of 2018 and only 69% were available in France (96% were available in the United States).

These new therapeutics are quite costly to develop and produce and they often work in about 40% of the cases. This may not be great but on the one hand it is better than nothing and on the other hand it allows for examination of why not in the remaining 60%.

Cost is always an issue.  However there are a multiplicity of issues. The treatment with these therapeutics is in reality a massive clinical trial. CAR-T cells, as we have written, are very powerful and on the downside there is the impact of cytokine storms. Just like old time chemotherapy the CAR-T can attack everything the patient has. 

Yet the progress has been beneficial and we anticipate that in the next twenty years we will see it stabilized and solving many things which are now death sentences.

Back to Salamis?

The NY Times writer asserts that the current President has his foreign policy driven by the 1979 assault on the American Embassy in Tehran and the capture and abuse of the Americans there. However one should look back to 480 BC, 2,500 years ago and the Battle of Salamis. Not the first time the Persians tried to demolish Western democracies. There have been periodic battles of East and West well over the 2,500 year period. Thus focusing on 1979 may be just one of many.

Beware Divorced American Wives?

 

 It seems that one need look no further than Edward VIII and Mrs. Simpson to see that the Brisish Royal family has not worked well with American Divorcees.

There is now a well defined history here that someone whould have investugated. The self proclaimed Irish opinion writer in the NY Times does a reasonable job but she misses the point. Namely, despited the apparent need for Royalty, genetics proves that its elimination would perchance eliminate these occurances.

NYC Broadband?

I have tried to keep away from broadband since it is becoming a closed system with minimal innovation. Yes, I know, 5G and all that stuff. Imaging little antennas all over broadcasting RF at frequencies which could fry your eyeballs out. But I guess that is when tin hats become useful.

Now along come NYC proposing broadband for all getting folks to put fiber everywhere. As Ars Technica states:

The plan, announced by Mayor Bill de Blasio and Chief Technology Officer John Paul Farmer yesterday, says New York City "will prioritize and optimize 'open-access' or 'neutral-host' infrastructure, which can be shared by multiple operators to lower costs, increase competition, minimize physical disruption to the city, and incentivize private-sector investments to reach and serve customers." New York City wants to ensure universal access to both wired and mobile Internet, with a fiber network that offers home Internet and provides bandwidth to mobile services.... The city itself "will invest in new infrastructure that can be shared by multiple broadband operators," the plan says. In addition to the city's own "seed investments," New York said it "will leverage public-private partnerships to install, operate, and maintain the infrastructure." The plan estimates that building the needed infrastructure throughout the city would cost $2.1 billion. There's already a lot of fiber conduit in Manhattan and in the Bronx, so much of the construction could be done by pulling fiber cables through existing underground conduits. Aerial fiber installations would also be used heavily.

OK, now just what does this mean? $2.1 billion means just what? You see, just fiber on a pole is $50K per mile, buried is $100K, and you can do the math. Perhaps half of Staten Island? Then we get to Brooklyn, these costs go up an order of magnitude, then to Manhattan!

Then think the Subway system! You want the folks running the Subway, Sanitation, etc running a high tech infrastructure. People who cannot be fired, who have zero technical expertise.

This must be some election scam. 

Irony?

In 480 BC the Persian attacked the Greeks at Salamis. The Greeks were then still a weak amalgam of city states but under the Themistocles they managed to totally defeat the Persians under Xerxes. Prior planning prevents poor performance.

As I had noted years ago:

When you flew into the old Athens airport, the flight frequently came in over a small island just to the west of Piraeus, where the airport was located. Piraeus is just a few kilometers from the city of Athens, a short cab ride into town. The island that the flight passes over is generally innocuous, a small piece of land with a small inlet. Nothing much to look at. In the heat of a Greek summer day, the person arriving at the old airport could have looked out of the cab window as they drove to their hotel and have seen ships, cargo and oil vessels, in the harbor and the small island and inlet just rising in the background. In the heat of the Greek summer there is a slight haze but the view is unobstructed. 

The island that one flies over and which one sees as a backdrop to the harbor is Salamis. If one has no knowledge of history, then this island is a meaningless lump of rock and soil between the mainland and the Peloponnesian peninsula. If one understands history then this piece of land is one of the most important landmarks in our Western history. It was where the squabbling Greeks managed to assemble together under the leadership of Themistocles in September 25 of 480 BC and destroy the Persian fleet and their army. Xerxes the Persian king sat on his portable golden throne and watched the rabble of democratic Greeks demolish his fleet. This action by a democratic people against the ravaging hordes from the east was pivotal in the development of Western democracies and thought. If Greece had fallen, the concepts we now hold from Greek democracy would have fallen and the works of Aristotle and Plato, not to mention the great Greek dramatists, would most likely have perished as well. 

Sitting at a bar at the Hotel Grand Bretagne in Athens on September 9, 2001, I was engaged in a discussion with a couple of Greeks and a Russian. We got around to Salamis. The Russian commented that we hear about Themistocles and Xerxes but we never hear about the Xenophon and other shipmates who were on the Greek triremes. Who were these men who dropped all their responsibilities to family and farm and joined in to protect their land. These men came from waring elements on the Greek mainland and the Peloponnese. My Russian friend went on to talk of many men who went to war, not the Generals, but the fighting men who are often not only forgotten but whose lessons have not been brought to the present. My two Greek friends agreed. At that time I had nothing to add to that conversation, war for some is a singular affair, for others it is a family matter. 

One of the observations of the poet Auden in his poem on “Hodge Looks Toward London” is the recognition that in England until the First World War no soldier’s name was ever remembered from a battle. In the United States the Civil War was out first War with the remembrance of the deaths of soldiers, and those remembrances were in the centers of the small New England Towns whose sons and husbands went to fight. One finds no such remembrances south of New England. The classic remembrance of course is the Wall for the Vietnam fallen. That is truly the first, a remembrance of the fallen men and women in Vietnam. In a strange way the newer WW II memorial is a throwback or possible even worse, it is a monument with few names, and names must be bought to subscribe. 
In hometowns there are monuments to this War with names, at colleges there are walls with the fallen, but at the national monument one cannot find those who have won distinguished service crosses or navy crosses. Okinawa, Iwo Jima, Saipan, Guadalcanal and the others are missing, the men, and the women, are missing. Just as Themistocles is the sole player remembered at Salamis, the national monument memorializes a few. Furthermore, monuments as we see them today remember the dead. 

The irony is that today the US President hosted the Greek Prime Minister. Getting tips?