Saturday, May 15, 2010

China, Iran and Nuclear Weapons

In China Daily today the former Chinese Ambassordor to Iran lays out the Chinese argument regarding Iran and nuclear weapons. Simply it is the US's problem because Germany, France, Russia, China and others have reliance upon Iranian oil.

Nuclear weapons are not important, so says China.

Specifically they state:

A war by the US or Israel against Teheran, which is likely to set the oil-rich Gulf ablaze, will cut down world energy supplies by 60 percent, fuel a rise in oil prices and plunge the global economy into a fresh crisis.

Given that a fast-growing China has become increasingly dependent on world energy supplies, it is thus in Beijing's strategic interests to maintain peace and stability in the Middle East, the Gulf, the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea.It is China's top diplomatic priority to ease confrontation and defuse conflicts in a bid to prevent tensions over Iran's nuclear issue from escalating into a military confrontation.

The Gulf, yes, but what is this about the South China Seas? A threat? Likely.

They continue:

All major world powers except the US have huge strategic, energy related and economic interests in Iran.Iran serves as Russia's buffer in the south given that an independent and US-antagonistic Iran is in Moscow's interest in the context of the US-led eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Russia's security in its mostly Muslim-populated Caucasus region and Chechnya is closely related with Iran.

Moscow has also benefited from its cooperation with Iran on nuclear power construction and its export of airplanes, missiles and other sophisticated weapons to Teheran. In addition, a $630 million-worth Russian investment in Iran's South Pars gas field will also suffer in case new UN sanctions come into force.

The EU too cannot ignore Iran's economic and strategic importance to itself. Some 80 percent of the bloc's oil consumption depends on the Gulf.Since 1992, Germany, France, Britain, Belgium and the Netherlands have successively joined in to exploit Iran's oil and gas fields.

The article ends with this "warning":

Since it took office, the US Obama administration has made efforts toward undoing its past unilateralism and improving ties with the Islamic country, including the policy of "unconditional engagement" with Teheran. However, the Obama administration cannot completely break away from the US' long-held strategy as a superpower and cannot accept peaceful coexistence with the Iranian regime.

As a permanent UN Security Council member, China holds an important say in Iran's nuclear issue. It enjoys good relations both with the US and Iran and thus does not want to offend either party. The US regards China's backing as a measure of Beijing's obligation as a responsible country while Iran sees China's resistance to UN sanctions as the test of long-praised good relations between the two countries.

China should, together with other members of the international community, come up with a viable formula to achieve a US-Iran compromise on the issue.

There really is no compromise to nuclear threat. The Kahn theory of mutual assured destruction works with a rational player on each side. It worked with Russia. It will not work with Iran. Thus what would China prefer to see, continued oil, or worse. The worse can be quite disturbing to all.