Sunday, April 5, 2015

Employment Numbers April 2015

The employment numbers are always akin to reading tea leaves. We examine them again here are are always reminded of the Romer guesses of January 2009. Those prognostications seemed never to even come close to reality, but after all it was from an economist.
The above is the data we have from March 2015. A slow growth but still not return to full employment from what we had in 2005.

The above shows employment and population growth which somehow we never see discussed in the presentation of the numbers. Much of the population growth remain unemployed which is still a major concern.
This is the most worrisome. Namely the workforce participation rates. It has sunken and seems never even to try to return. Of all the numbers this is the long term concern. First because we do not get taxes from these people and second because they have a social cost.
Finally this is the articulation of that measure. The red line depicts the difference between jobs created and new people in the workforce. I has drop dramatically in this quarter. That does not bode well for the year.