Sunday, May 17, 2009

The Unemployment Chart


The above chart is the plotting of Christine Romer's projections of unemployment with and without the stimulus plus the real data.

I am reminded of when I ran my own companies, every Monday morning I had directors call me to see how we did last week. One from London was akin to a hemorrhoid in his call from London which was on my phone blinking away along with a half dozen emails. If I failed to meet or exceed the targets then I was justifiably called on the carpet to explain. By the way some of this occurred during the telecom meltdown when we frankly did not know how bad the storm really was.

However it is clear that Romer was way off base! If she were head of sales she would have been sacked by April 15th. You just cannot be that far off. However this is economics, macroeconomics where two things coexist; unfounded opinion and no basis in any facts which are reproducible.


The second chart shows how far they are off in actual percent differences by month. We will follow this data as we progress along this so-called recovery plan.