Saturday, October 29, 2011

Food Inflation 2011 and 2012

The inflation on food has been quite substantial over the past few years. For example a gallon of milk has gone from $3.00 to $4.50 in eighteen months, a 50% inflation and an annualized rate of 32.5%. The USDA has issued a report on food inflation for 2011 and 2012. The results are below:





Note the high levels of inflation, some exceeding 9& pa. Dairy is at 8% but that weights cheese eggs etc. Milk is hidden there.

The USDA report states:

Although food price inflation was relatively weak for most of 2009 and 2010, cost pressures on wholesale and retail food prices due to higher food commodity and energy prices, along with strengthening global food demand, have pushed inflation projections upward for 2011.


The all-food CPI increased 0.8 percent between 2009 and 2010, the lowest food inflation rate since 1962. Food-at-home prices increased by 0.3 percent—the lowest annual increase since 1967—with cereal and bakery product prices declining 0.8 percent and processed fruit and vegetable prices dropping 1.3 percent. Food-away-from-home prices rose 1.3 percent in 2010, the lowest annual increase for restaurant prices since 1955.

For 2012, food price inflation is expected to abate from 2011 levels but is projected to be slightly above the historical average for the past two decades. The all-food CPI is projected to increase 2.5 to 3.5 percent over 2011 levels, with food-at-home prices increasing 3 to 4 percent and food-away-from-home prices increasing 2 to 3 percent. While many inflationary pressures that drove prices up in 2011 are not expected to intensify and may even decrease in 2012, retailers have been slow to pass on cost increases to date. Price levels in 2012 will hinge significantly on several macroeconomic factors such as weather conditions, fuel prices, and the value of the U.S. dollar...

The price of food is a heavy burden on the lower income groups. I expect it to continue at a 10% rate for the foreseeable future.