First, it is not possible both to keep taxes at their historical
average share of gross domestic product (GDP) and to keep the laws
unchanged for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.
Second, keeping federal deficits and debt no larger than what we
project under current law would involve difficult policy trade-offs.
To be sure, the Congress might not enact those changes in law, or it
might choose to allow more debt than would occur under current law or to
reduce debt more quickly relative to GDP than would occur under current
law. There are many possible combinations of policies that Congress
might pursue depending on its policy goals, and CBO will make neither
recommendations nor predictions about them. The point is simply that the
path of debt under current law would still leave debt at a historically
high level relative to GDP, and even achieving that path would require
very large changes in current policies.
Clearly the issue of Medicare costs must be addressed.
Posts
