In 2007, the amount of methane in the atmosphere (CH4) began to rise after a 7-year period of near-zero growth. Recent research shows that a second step change occurred in 2014. ...Yet, between 2007 and 2014, the amount has risen by an average of 5.7 parts per billion (ppb) per year, and by an average of 9.7 ppb per year since 2014. If this rise continues unabated, cuts to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will need to be even steeper to achieve the Paris goal.
Yep, the cows keep doing what cows do and swamps keep doing what swamps do and we get worse and worse. Humans must cease using any carbon bit even that may not help! But the article has statements like:
While the scientific community continues to debate the causes of the CH4 surge, the consequences are clear. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios that limit warming to 1.5°C assume that the amount of CH4 in the atmosphere will decrease by 35% between 2010 and 2050.
Namely there is really no consensus. They also note:
The causes for the recent rise in atmospheric CH4 remain a subject of scientific debate, even for the initial period of increase from 2007 to 2014. Process-based estimates of CH4 emissions from inventory data, wetland models, and other information offer conflicting explanations, but measurements of the distribution of CH4 in the atmosphere and its 13C/12C isotopic ratio at a global network of stations hold clues.
Let's see. We don't know and the data is conflicting. Yep, real science here, no need to check. They continue:
Biogenic emissions mainly come from wetlands and agriculture, particularly ruminant livestock. Multimodel wetland studies do not confirm an emission increase since 2007. However, livestock inventories show that ruminant emissions began to rise steeply around 2002 and can account for about half of the CH4 increase since 2007. CH4 is destroyed in the atmosphere by reaction with hydroxyl radicals (OH) and other atmospheric constituents. Reduced chemical destruction of CH4 could both increase atmospheric CH4 and decrease its proportion of 13C. Actual OH changes over the past years are controversial, as is the role of sinks in global inversion studies.
Now let me try to simplify. The methane levels are increasing. The increases are not man made but come from decaying biomasses and cows. We think. There is nothing we can do here. CO2 is the other gas and we allegedly generate that so there is something we can do there. But it may not be enough, we don't know but Governments should mandate this.
Holy Cow, Batman, the Logic is compelling!
Posts
