Energy, NASA, the Academy, the Entrepreneur and the Future

Energy, NASA, the Academy, the Entrepreneur and the Future; what do these have in common? In talking with an old friend of mine whose early career was at NRL and then NASA, and who in many ways is the quintessential engineer, I remember the days on the late 50s and early 60s with the space race when NASA and DoD funded many graduate students and the management of these agencies were in many cases the folks who came out of WW II. They were dedicated devoted and driven. The early NASA teams, before Johnson turned it into a political hack factory, were very bright folks and could always find ways to solve engineering problems.

Now the energy problem is hard but doable. It is somewhat akin to separating uranium in 1942, many options, not knowing the best, but the science of separation was understood, it became a big chemical engineering issue. It got solved.

Now the energy problem has been driven by DoE, not one of the swiftest parts of the Federal Government, if I remember Carter had appointed a dentist at its head at one time. You see DoE rally makes bombs, the old Atomic Energy Commission, and it spends billions on other stuff, including electric cars which goes back to the early 70s at least. Nothing has ever come out of this mess. Unlike the early days of NASA, or the Manhattan Project, it became a Government institution with no well defined and targed goal.

But energy alternatives is well defined. NASA did work early on, the Academy is a place to start, and the Academy produced may of the entrepreneurs. You see I had a 64K memory computer on the Apollo capsule to integrate my star tracker into, yes 64K, not 64G, a million times less. That meant you really had to think.

From this amalgam of really smart people and a really good Government agency, we solved some really hard problems. Instead, today we send our entrepreneurs to Facebook, another web based sale approach, which may have the ability to provoke social change but the "value" of that change is problematic. After all people spend tons of time tweeting, facebooking, and the like. I got rid of my Facebook stuff, it was just too dumb. My MIT students had me sign up early on but after a few years I made a value judgement, it was negative. I relly dd not care what my nephew ate last night for dinner! Now I really like my nephew, but it just went too far.

So back to energy, leadership in Washington, focus, the right motivation, and I think we can make great progress. But first, move DoE to, well, West Virginia, south of Morgantown. Far enough away but close to CMU, WVU and a few others. In the coal belt, motivate folks. It has been done before, it can be done again.

An Interesting Cancer

Melanoma is an interesting cancer to study. First one could surmise based upon many studies that a primary caused of its incidence is the UV radiation which the skin is subjected to. Then there appears to be some genetic correlation. However there are families where one sibling was a lifeguard for five years and managed to get to seventy and where the other sibling dies at 24 and was never exposed to the sun.Thus the true causal relationship may still be some what up in the air.

However the genetic profiles of certain melanomas, after the fact, and their pathways, are starting to be identified. A recent NCI study states:

In one approach, the team searched for mutations that occurred in multiple patients. They found mutations in the gene BRAF, previously implicated in melanoma, and in 9 other genes. Mutations in a gene called TRRAP occurred at the same position in 6 separate people with melanoma.

To test whether TRRAP is an oncogene—a gene that can prevent normal cell death and cause cancer—the researchers disrupted TRRAP in melanoma cells. As expected for an oncogene, disruption of TRRAP caused an increase in cell death.

In another approach, the researchers looked for genes with a higher-than-expected mutation rate. Of the 16 identified genes, only BRAF had previously been implicated in melanoma. Another, GRIN2A, is one of the most highly mutated genes associated with melanoma to date. The identification of GRIN2A, along with other data from the study, implicate the glutamate signaling pathway in melanoma.

Thus the pathways are becoming a key element. As we have discussed before, there is some experimental evidence of a stem cell model for melanoma. Thus one would ask if the genetic markers are stem cell markets are otherwise. It will become critical to be able to look at markers on a cell by cell basis and not on a larger cross section. Also it will be essential to correlate this with the controlling pathways, again on a cell by cell basis. Large scale cell by cell analysis will be a key driver. Perhaps indicators of cell surface proteins may be a reasonable proxy. Just a thought.

A Financial Warning From China

China Daily sent out a note stating that China had formally sent a "warning" to the US regarding its failure to address its debt crisis, particularly regarding the recent change of status.

They state:

If investors start demanding higher returns for holding riskier US debt, the rise in bond yields could erode the value of Treasuries held in currency reserves and push borrowing costs up, putting the global economic recovery in jeopardy.

"We hope the US government will take responsible policies and measures to safeguard China's foreign exchange reserves, the world's biggest, rose by nearly $200 billion in the first quarter to $3.05 trillion. About two-thirds are estimated to be invested in dollars.

Beijing has repeatedly warned that loose US monetary policy threatens the dollar, but it has continued to accumulate dollar assets at the same time, adding about $260 billion of Treasury securities last year, according to US data.

Policymakers in Europe, where interest rates are rising and debt is being cut, have also voiced concern.

However Washington seems yo have a deaf ear. China is in the early stages of its own internal inflation and the ability to move forward in financing from the Treasury perspective may be pushed back to the FED merely printing dollars. We have gasoline up 75%, milk 33%, bread is up 25% and the list goes on. No inflation? Hardly! It is just that home sales prices are low, low demand, driven by back room money.

Great Interpretation of Two Views: The Future Of Medicare

Mankiw at Harvard presents a great view of the two visions of Medicare. Strange how the deficit has suddenly been focused on one issue, the old folks! Everyone seems to feel it is open season on this one issue, albeit an important one. "Kill grandma" may now become acceptable.

But why are we having such a deficit! Medicare was and is an insurance program and perhaps it should be run that way. Instead it is run like a piggy bank. The truth of the matter is that using January 2008 employment data we have a 12.8% unemployment from a 4.5% number and that is a lot less tax revenue. True fact, and the problem is not all Medicare.

So perhaps we reform Medicare; increase the 3% to 4% and move the eligibility date to a rolling 10 years before the average age of death of the recipients, increase the monthly fee to be 3% of the gross annual income number and use a 30% deductible. That not only save the program but makes money. Perhaps we have a non-Governmental agency do this. Then again such a thought is from an engineer not an economist, one who has started and run companies, not played politics. By the way, China is still  run by us engineers!

Then there is DoD and the rest of the Washington mess. Just look at DoE, Education, DoT, and the list goes on! Why pick on Medicare? Because they think the old people will just die. Watch out, they may live a long time, and remember!

Provenge, Prostate Cancer and Costs

There is a brief article on Provenge and its use for prostate cancer in NEJM. Now Provenge is a new and supposedly targeted drug for metastatic androgen resistance prostate cancer. As NEJM states:

...sipuleucel-T (Provenge), a novel cellular immunotherapy for the treatment of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic, metastatic, castration-resistant (hormone-refractory) prostate cancer The pivotal clinical trial demonstrated the benefits of sipuleucel-T: an increase in median survival of 4.1 months as compared with placebo and fewer side effects than occur with docetaxel. Priced at $31,000 per treatment, with a usual course of three treatments, sipuleucel-T is one of the most expensive cancer therapies ever to hit the marketplace.

 Yes that is $30,000 per treatment! The question is then should one have Medicare pay for this for all AR PCa patients. It does not really cure and has a limited ability to improve quality of life and survival as best as one can ascertain. This is a question which goes to the heart of the health care debate.

This is a difficult question, since there are many tens of thousands of men in that state at any one time. At roughly $100,000 per patient per year, the number is in the billions, and the benefit is questionable. Men should be able to choose, but at what price, what should Medicare cover? Worth a discussion.

Man and Bear

There is a note about the polar bear Knut in today's NY Times. Now let me state at the outset that I know bears. I saw the polar bears at Churchill, the very same who consumed some prior humans I believe and there is of course Bernie Bear, a 400 pound black bear who lives behind our home in New Hampshire. Bernie comes and goes, and at times sits at the edge of the driveway to greet us as we arrive. Man and bear have a strong if at time distant affinity. Bears walk on two feet, frequently, and are often at the top of the food chain, humans included.

The Times article seems to state the coolness and aloofness of the Berlin Zoo head, well for those of us who have worked in Germany that is no surprise. The best oxymoron is German humor, and the second best is German sympathy. Just does not exist in my experience. Russian are "great bears", bolshoi medveds, we Americans respect our bears, Ms. Palin included, yet I never met an Alaskan bear or any brown bear for that matter.

Bears are wonderful creatures at a distance. They are fearless, intelligent, and respectful. Perhaps the German zoo should take notice.