COVID-19 Spreading

 In a recent draft paper from Fred Hutch Center in Seattle the authors note:

SARS-CoV-2 is difficult to contain because most transmissions occur during the pre-symptomatic phase of infection. Moreover, in contrast to influenza, while most SARS-CoV-2 infected people do not transmit the virus to anybody, a small percentage secondarily infect large numbers of people. We designed mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza which link observed viral shedding patterns with key epidemiologic features of each virus, including distributions of the number of secondary cases attributed to each infected person (individual R0) and the duration between symptom onset in the transmitter and secondarily infected person (serial interval). We identify that people with SARS-CoV-2 or influenza infections are usually contagious for fewer than two days congruent with peak viral load several days after infection, and that transmission is unlikely below a certain viral load. SARS-CoV-2 super-spreader events with over 10 secondary infections occur when an infected person is briefly shedding at a very high viral load and has a high concurrent number of exposed contacts. The higher predisposition of SARS-CoV-2 towards super-spreading events is not due to its 1-2 additional weeks of viral shedding relative to influenza. Rather, a person infected with SARS-CoV-2 exposes more people within equivalent physical contact networks than a person infected with influenza, likely due to aerosolization of virus. Our results support policies that limit crowd size in indoor spaces and provide viral load benchmarks for infection control and therapeutic interventions intended to prevent secondary transmission.

As we suspected, there is a Typhoid Mary syndrome afoot. The current politically correct term apparently is "Super Spreaders" but back then Mary was just an Irish Catholic maid, so one can guess that as such the term would be exempt from the politically correct dogma.

However, if this is correct, and one suspects it to be so, then perhaps by proper testing and isolation of these Super Spreaders we can dominate this virus. But then again it demands testing. Unfortunately as we have noted there is no General Groves to effect this. Instead we seem to have bumbling civil servants.

New Jersey and Mail in Voting

 Let us start with some facts. You see facts are the basis of science and science is what we all believe in, here in New Jersey. Right Governor.

Here is the latest USPS delivery attempt above. Amazon tracks it and well you can see. LOST! And if you look at times, it was LOST in just a few minutes. Yes indeed, that is our USPS. Now:

The above is a list of the LOST package just this year. You see the USPS REFUSES to deliver and then GONZO. Now the NY Times tells us our brilliant Governor has decided that we must vote by mail. Not only are we denied a secret ballot but we must hand our votes over to the USPS. Facts, yes folks those nasty facts, you know, believe me or your lying eyes type facts, and the Governor will use the USPS one of the most incompetent entities next to the MV bureaus.

Say goodbye to democracy! 

The NY Times as usual lauds the vote by mail and tells us everything will be just fine! They note:

For example, if a voter’s signature was being challenged, the person would be alerted while there was still time to cure the problem. “Just like tracking an Amazon package,” she said, “you can see where your ballot is at every moment.”

 Well folks, the facts seem to deny this rosy picture. But if you want to deny an individual's right to a secret ballot, welcome to New Jersey!

A brief update. Latest call from Postmistress, no mail at all yesterday, she alleges she does not have the people, if that is how I understood it. If they do not have them now, what about November. This has not been a recent problem as one can see by the dates on the complaints since early April. It has  been growing and festering for most of the year. Is it deliberate? Are the Unions behind it? Clear;y the Postmaster General has no idea, after-all he is just a political appointee. 

This is a shameful situation building for years. But now with the mandate for Mail In Voting, it opens it up to a total loss of trust in out Government. One shudders to think where that will lead. Why not just open the polls for say 4 days, Saturday through Tuesday. There are dozens of better options, unless of course you want this result.

NJ 2020 08 14

 Not much new again

NJ 2020 08 13

 First the per county tares. It is clear we have 4 or 5 counties that need focus.

 

Then we see that there is an upswing on the state level driven by these counties

Deaths are still lower but they lag. Yet I suspect we still are seeing LTC deaths at a significant rate. This is due in my opinion from the staff coming from the high infection counties and distributing the virus.

County still simmers

State shows the upswing which should be a serious concern

The True Death Toll

 The NY Times generates another baseless tale, this time about what they claim is a misinterpreted death toll. They claim:

Across the United States, at least 200,000 more people have died than usual since March, according to a New York Times analysis of estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is about 60,000 higher than the number of deaths that have been directly linked to the coronavirus.

Here are some facts.

1. Many deaths occurred with cancer and cardiac patients due to failure to treat. For example, ERs in NYC saw a massive drop in MI and stroke patients during April and May. The death rate did not change, they just died elsewhere and more than likely the ME called it COVID. Was it really? Cancer patients delayed life saving treatments and operations. A 3 month delay in prostate surgery may not be critical but three months in a melanoma is a death sentence. 

 2. The CDC and the MMWR has always been a sore point. It is late, inaccessible, and at best a compilation of a compilation. The demand to move the data collection to HHS may actually be an essential change. CDC in my opinion and my experience lags dramatically is data capability. You get what they digest, and that may not be adequate in a fast moving pandemic.

 3. Timeliness and accuracy in death reports has always been a problem. As we have noted for months, in New Jersey reports are not timely, often well under reported on weekends and over reported when they appear. Infection rates are equally confused since one does not know when the test was taken just when it appears.

4. The lack of open source data is  a serious problem. With thousands of competent data analysts in private and academic settings one would think that having as many eyes and computers on the data would be helpful. The CDC obfuscates its data and thus it is meaningless. Any reliance on a conclusions drawn from the CDC data in my opinion is of little use.

Mail in Voting Again

 The hurricane is over, the roads are clear, the power is back on and the USPS is back at refusing to deliver the mail again. Today again they say that I must pick up my mail at the Post Office. I have spoken to the Postmistress, a political appointee I believe, written the Postmaster General, and still they refuse. Nothing, not even a piece of junk mail. 

And we want to entrust these incompetents to manage our voting. It is clear they cannot and more so will not perform their duties. They will, in my opinion and in my experience, lose mail, delay mail, misplace mail. How can any rational person place the future of our democracy in their hands?