Employment Data End 2011

The BLS released its December 2011 employment data and their bottom line is 8.5%. However as always it is worth looking a bit deeper.

The curve above is the Romer curve. Now three years after she published her now infamous projections we can still see how far they are from reality. That is the problem of showing how little one knows as compared to reality.

The above shows the variances from what she predicted with and without the Stimulus. Clearly the data shows that the Stimulus failed to do what she and the current Administration predicted. We show this again in detail below:

We now show below the unemployment as stated by BLS versus the unemployment as based upon July 2006 employment base.

The above shows we are still at 12% plus unemployment because we have lost so many from the base. In fact if one looks at the base line it has been flat for a year at 12% plus. The problem is that BLS seems to assume that all new people based on population entering the employment pool are never counted. In reality the population does grow.

The above shows the population growth and the pool employed. The pool employed is growing but not at the same as the population!

The above demonstrates what we have been saying in some detail.