Waiting on the Corner for the Bus

I just read a piece by Posner on Luck versus Hard Work. He concludes:

In short, I do not believe in free will. I think that everything that a person does is caused by something. It is true, and is the basis of belief in free will, that often we are conscious of considering pros and cons in deciding on a course of action; “we” are deciding, rather than having the decision made by something outside “us.” But calculation and decisionmaking are different. Deciding may just mean calculating the balance of utility and disutility; the result of the balance determines the decision. No doubt when a cat pounces on a mouse, it has decided to do so; but the decision was compelled by circumstances—the feline diet, the presence of the mouse, etc. A complete description of the incident would not require positing free will. 

Namely he sides with Luck versus Hard Work. I more than humbly disagree. I often tell folks that to be successful you must be on the corner when the bus goes by, and you must get on the right one. The bus does not come to your house, you must walk to the corner and be prepared for the ride.

I have seen far too many people who want a job, to be told what to do, and then bemoan their fate when the lose what they may have had.

I recall many of my ventures, taking the full risk of no income, focusing on a new idea, selling the idea to others to form a team, raising more capital, and expanding the business. I have never been a Government employee, unless you count my summers as a NYC Lifeguard or my winter shoveling snow for the NYC Sanitation Department. Learning experiences but not jobs.

Posner does not understand that one must do a great deal to be prepared for luck. Many people turn luck down, they really do. They are offered opportunities, which require risks, and they say no. Many would never have the luck because they were not educated enough to realize it when it comes.

As for free will, I totally disagree with Posner, we all too often chose, for better or worse. The "path not taken" was a choice. We are not compelled. There are many who have not become alcoholics, who have not smoked cigarettes, who have lost weight and kept it off, who have not consumed various illegal substances. That was by choice. In fact the very presence, the existence, of those who avoid obesity is proof of choice. If once obese and then no longer, that is a choice, that is a sine qua non example of free will.