Would You Buy a Car From These People?

Now I do not think a great deal about economists and their "science". But the CEA, the Administrations economic mouthpiece, remember Romer and her "scientific" predictions, have now analyzed the closing of the Government.

They state:

A number of private sector analyses have estimated that the shutdown reduced the annualized growth rate of GDP in the fourth quarter by anywhere from 0.2 percentage point (as estimated by JP Morgan) to 0.6 percentage point (as estimated by Standard and Poor’s), with intermediate estimates of 0.2 percentage point and 0.5 percentage point from Macroeconomic Advisers and Goldman Sachs respectively. Most of the private sector analyses are based on models that predict the impact of the shutdown based on the reduction in government services over that period. Very few of them are based on an actual analysis of economic performance during the period of the shutdown and very few take into account the secondary effects on the private sector of the cessation of government services or the effects on confidence and uncertainty associated with both the shutdown and the debt limit brinksmanship. But we know that these effects can be large; for example, the debt limit brinksmanship in the summer of 2011 had an adverse economic impact even though it was not accompanied by a shutdown nor did it lead to an actual default on U.S. government obligations. While useful in understanding the costs of the shutdown and brinksmanship, the available private-sector analyses present only part of the picture.

This report attempts to estimate the actual impact of the shutdown and default brinksmanship on economic activity as measured by eight different daily or weekly economic indicators. Overall it finds that a range of eight economic indicators combined in what this report calls a “Weekly Economic Index” are consistent with a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the annualized GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter and a reduction of about 120,000 private-sector jobs in the first two weeks of October (estimates use indicators available through October 12th.)

Assuming anything in the above is even close to true, remember we have one of those rating agencies who got us in this mess it is alleged, and an bank receiving near free money from the FED, one could ask as Congress pays for non working hours will that pop up the numbers again?

Also are we just measuring noise at this level of granularity?