Non Sequitur

A non sequitur simply is that one thing does not follow from another. So why am I not amazed that the left and erstwhile economists seem to fall into the trap.

Take the Washington Post:

The top story all day was that Republicans had shut down the federal government because President Obama wouldn't defund or delay the Affordable Care Act. The other major story was that the government's servers were crashing because so many people were trying to see if they could get insurance through Obamacare.

So on the one hand, Washington was shut down because Republicans don't want Obamacare. On the other hand, Obamacare was nearly shut down because so many Americans wanted Obamacare.

The first tale about the Republicans is somewhat factual, after all that is what they are saying. The second is a non sequitur. The collapse of the servers is most likely the direct result of a poor system or technical design. After all it was the Government who did it and we all know deductively that they never get anything right. There is no evidence that it was the demand. The system should have been designed for a peak load, and the designers knew that. So the first logical conclusion is a faulty design, way ahead of unexpected demand. The second logical conclusion, given the shutting off of the Panda etc is Government interference, namely deliberate shutting down.

Thus the answer is hardly what the left wants, it may, and most likely be, due to the Government itself! It does help to know something about computers and networks. But alas these folks are all too often clueless!

Now consider the logic:

1. Observed fact: The Government designed, controlled and operated web site malfunctioned on its first day.

2. Reasonable Assumption 1: Since this was a new thing of sorts one would expect a high level of curiosity at the beginning and thus the initial load would be exceedingly high. Thus the system should be designed to deal with that.

 3. Reasonable Assumption 2: There has been thousands of Internet services that have been designed and operated which have had to deal with high arrival rates. Thus the problem, its solution and the allied technology is well at hand and should have been included in the design.

4. Possible Causes: There are many possible causes of the Observed Fact. The excess demand combined with proper design is not the most obvious. In an Ockham like manner one will proffer the simplest. Namely the design failed. But perhaps that is NOT the most obvious since such systems had been designed before as we have noted and thus one could reasonably assume that such was taken into account. Then this leaves a simple logical cause as direct adverse Government interference. Why would this be a most likely Ockham like solution? Because it reflects the Administrations general actions elsewhere, the Panda again being an example, and the result creates a beneficial issue of over demand.

Thus using simple logical deduction one can ascertain that the most likely cause was the Government itself. Pity.

But the key fact to take away from this posting is as follows. If the cause was a poor design, then think of how the ACA is being implemented in toto. If on the other hand  the fault was deliberate, then one should be quite fearful of a Government which would commit such an act.