Some Employment Numbers

Over the past ten years we have been following the employment numbers. In early 2009 we had the Romer curve for which we were told by some economist how things would get better. Well, not quite, and the economist went back to Berkeley. I do not think I would send anyone there but then again I am an engineer by training.

I will go backwards. The above curve depicts the unemployed and the workforce participation as referenced to 2006. What I find interesting and not noted anywhere is that during the past administration it stayed flat and with the new administration there is a continuous rise. This to me is the most critical data message.

The summary data is shown above is also insightful. The unemployment is less than 4% but with the higher participation rate is is just above 5%. In our prior analysis the peak was well above 12%.

The above is the gap from max employment and it is now just above 1 million. includes growth in population.

The final curve shows the growth in both metrics.