In a recent article in The Hill, one of the former "advisors" on the Corona virus from China is noted as saying:
...the U.S. should be prepared for another potential COVID-19 surge after a recent uptick in infections in South Africa. “They’re on an upslope again,” Birx said of South Africa’s infections on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “Each of these surges are about four to six months apart. That tells me that natural immunity wanes enough in the general population after four to six months that a significant surge is going to occur again. And this is what we have to be prepared for in this country,” she added. Birx specifically warned Americans should be “preparing right now for a potential surge in this summer across the southern United States.”
Well the facts seem to bear out a different tale. South Africa seems to be a location for high Covid mutation rates. Why? Perhaps because of the immune compromised people who have massive HIV infections. In a reasonably health person the virus can mutate just so much before the immune system takes over. However in highly immune compromised people the number of mutations are many orders of magnitude more and thus new variants come forth.
Thus the natural immunity argument that the good Doctor promulgates may not be the driver. In fact we now have a US population that is nearly 90% vaccinated and almost 50% previously infected. This means that there may get a variant but that for most the immune system will kick in. That is why we have break throughs but no US based variants.
One suspects this palaver is driven by book sales and not scientific facts. That may have been what we have been facing all along.
So is this disinformation. Speculation without a scientific basis is close. If anything in my opinion it is reckless.
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