Sunday, June 10, 2012

Obesity

Remember:

Input Less Output = Net Accumulation

that is a tautology, and a law of nature. The NY Times has a long piece on obesity. It states:

The causes of obesity are everywhere. Societal factors play a big role: the lack of safe places to play, walk or bike; sedentary jobs; less time devoted to cooking and more eating out; bigger portion sizes in packaged and prepared food; and incessant marketing of junk foods that are high in calories. Sugar-sweetened drinks accounted for at least 20 percent of the increases in weight in the United States between 1977 and 2007, according to one study cited by the institute. 

The causes of obesity dear reader are in yourself!  Fifty years ago we walked a mile to school, a mile home for lunch, a sandwich, a mile back and then a mile back home at days end. Then I would deliver newspapers on a ten mile route with 123 customers spread all over hell and gone. There was no school lunch, no breakfast, and never had deserts. No money.

Then when running my companies in central Europe, Czech Republic, Greece, Poland, Russia, portions were small and deserts were unheard of.

The worst offender if the Department of Agriculture and its food programs. It is food for the porcine. We should dismantle the program totally. Let kids walk, let them bring their lunch or walk home. Exercise and limited lunches are key. And breakfast at school, just look at the calories of a typical DoA breakfast, it exceeds 1200 cal! That is 70% of the daily maximum intake just there. Then lunch, another 1200. No wonder we have problems, as with so much else, it is the Government!

The Times continues:

The institute says that a major cut in obesity rates will require multiple strategies on a population-wide scale. This will be even more challenging than the fight against smoking. But there isn’t any choice if we want to protect the public’s health, the strength of the economy and the government budget. 

 Nonsense. The solution is to just control yourself. Tax weight, tax carbs, and disband the DoA!

The Annoyance of Facts

Kaiser has had an interview with a former Government bureaucrat who states:

If the whole law goes down, the death rate in the United States will go up beginning in 2014. Because we know that the number of uninsured people will not go down, it will go up, and that growth in the number of uninsured people increases the number of people who die, so it’s pretty straightforward as far as I can tell. We’ll also have enormous chaos in the delivery system, but how that will play out exactly is hard to know. 

 What is the basis of that statement. People will still be served, no one will be turned away. What will be the cause of this increase. In addition since the law has not yet fully gone into effect, how can there be an increase based on no law if no law was in existence. I may be the Abelard of Health Care but his logic is empty!

He then continues:

As best as anyone can tell, the reaction to the health law has been founded in an extraordinary amount of misinformation about what’s actually in it and what it will actually do. And it seems to me there’s no better way of educating the public about what the law will do and what effects it will have than just actually proceeding to implement it. I think when people begin to see exchanges offering a range of subsidized insurance products, when they begin to see some of the other things that are happening and not happening as a result of the legislation, public opinion will catch up. 

 No perhaps I am not "anyone" but I did read each version and the last final one three times in detail as this blog demonstrates. It is a nightmare! I have repeatedly detailed line by line. And he has the gall to say that:

And it seems to me there’s no better way of educating the public about what the law will do and what effects it will have than just actually proceeding to implement it.

We saw that same arrogant attitude from Congress. It is no wonder that people are so opposed. And also if obesity causes Type 2 Diabetes and if Type 2 Diabetes is the major cost element in health care cost explosions then perhaps the man would show by example and take off the weight to reduce the risk.

And I Have a Bridge for Sale

Today in the NY Times Romer is giving out advice again. But remember it is the very same Romer whose projections on unemployment we have been tracking for almost the past four years, never even close!

I agree that we need more effective fiscal and housing policies. But neither is likely to happen, at least not before the presidential election. As a result, the Fed is the only plausible source of immediate help for the American economy. It was set up as an independent body precisely so that somebody can do what’s right when politicians can’t or won’t. 

Then she suggests:

After the Fed has pushed interest rates down to zero, its main remaining tool is communications. It can affect expectations of future growth and inflation, which can have powerful effects on consumer spending and business investment today. But to have a big impact, the monetary actions need to be bold — and pursued with gusto. In an earlier column, I discussed one of economists’ favorite examples of such a policy: setting a target for the path of nominal gross domestic product. 

If the Fed doesn’t want to do something as drastic as adopting a new operating procedure, it could at least make any smaller actions it takes more effective. The previous rounds of quantitative easing may have done little to improve expectations because their size and duration were limited in advance. If the Fed does another round, it should leave the overall size and end date unspecified. Or, better yet, the ultimate scale and timing could be tied to the goals the Fed wants to achieve. 

 Frankly leadership is totally lacking, across the board. It appears that the folks in DC are totally clueless but that perhaps is not totally true. We have shown for four years that the FED has just pumped up the banks and then allowed then to continue to play with money mortgaged on our grandchildren's future. Then we also watch as Fiscal policy runs amok, again total lack of leadership.

Currently the FED is just an observer.A nice place to sit and drink coffee and watch others mess things up. But following the above somewhat vague suggestions based on her track record, please!


Saturday, June 9, 2012

Columbanus and the First Individualist

Columbanus was somewhat of a unique individual amongst those at the end of Roman Empire, is such an end can be stretched to the beginning of the seventh century. He stands out for a multitude of reasons that recent authors have noted. Within the past two years three biographies of the wandering Irish monk have been written and they each have certain positive attributes. I review each accordingly. The three books are those by Tristram [[ASIN:1856076865 Columbanus: The earliest voice of Christian Ireland]], Reynolds [[ASIN:0321338898 Columbanus: Light on the Early Middle Ages (Library of World Biography Series)]] and Richards [[ASIN:1845401905 Columbanus]]. I will review each in turn but there is some commonality I shall include in each.

Reynolds has written a splendid work on Columbanus. Of all that I have read his is clearly the best. It is clear, well written, and concise, covers all the points, lacks the risky speculation of others, and fills in the gaps of the world around Columbanus.

Chapter 2 is a summary of what his youth may have been like. There is a great deal available on early Ireland in this time but unlike other areas there were no real cities or centers of humanity, the country was highly disperse and the ruling class was fluid. In addition there was often war like interactions that had been an inherent part of the Irish culture and perhaps that also contributed to the temper we see arising in Columbanus.

Chapter 4 describes his entry into the Monastery. He goes from one at Cleenish on the north end of the Shannon onto Bangor the dominant one at the time. The author makes an excellent reference to the writings of Columbanus at this time on what was to become the Three Chapters controversy. One of the key questions would be; how did the Irish perceive these issues, which were often weighted by Platonic understanding. For example did they have access to Plotinus and they clearly must have been fluent in Greek since many of these writings were in the original Greek. The author has a good discussion on pp 34-35. On p 37 there is a brief discussion on his leaving Bangor and going to Gaul. The details are brief.

In Chapter 5 the author makes a detailed discussion of the "white martyrdom" of leaving Ireland for good. However there is the potential forced return we see later and one may ask how these relate. Chapter 6 is a superb discussion of the Merovingians. The author has done a great job in a few pages of laying out the players, the culture and the issues. However there is the knowing issue of just how well they managed to communicate. This is somewhat discussed out on pp 50-51. Namely the Irish had Latin, as did the Merovingians, but the pronunciation and localisms were significant. It is never clear if Columbanus managed to develop a proficiency in the native Frank language, itself with significant regional variants. On p. 50 when Columbanus enters the land of the Franks one wonders about the communications. Irish was not spoken in the Frank territory nor does it appear that the Irish spoke the Frankish tongue. Latin was a lingua franca but pronunciation and dialects would yet have prevailed. One need look no further than Gregory of Tours and his Latin, a highly clumsy and fragmented Latin, nowhere Ciceronian. Likewise the Latin of Gregory of Rome, the Bishop of Rome, was simple but an amalgam of Roman political style of the late sixth century.

Chapter 7 discusses the battle with the bishops. The author does a superb job in this area. The Irish were egalitarian. They were the first individualists. As such they did not see any reason to be managed by bishops. This would be an ongoing battle for Columbanus. Chapter 8 is a discussion of the miracles. Frankly the discussion of Columbanus and the bears is always delightful but these in many ways is classic for what at the time were people considered saints.

Chapter 9 is quite interesting for it brings Columbanus to the Lombards in and around Milan and to Bobbio his final monastery. Here there are many issues brought up by the author. The Lombards were Arian, namely Christ was from God the Father, not another personhood. Second Columbanus as noted on p 88 he notes "the Irish valued a man's principles more than his position" was in essence the central tenet of individualism. He was not a subject but a person. Further the author states, "Columbanus suggested disobedience if the pope were in error" is noted by the authors as a basis of what one was to see in the Reformation. One could suggest likewise it was also the individualistic nature of the Irish, again one of the only countries NOT occupied by Rome.

There are a few weaknesses, in my opinion.

First, the bibliography is written in a manner which is nearly impossible to read. All references are combined in a single paragraph. Whether this is the author, the publisher, or the editor it is truly a poor and ineffective choice.

Second and this is a question of intent, the book is almost an academic treatise, yet there are no references to sources.

Third and this is a significant issue there are no direct quotes from Columbanus. Many of his works are readily available and hearing his voice would have been useful. Perhaps a new translation would have merit here however.

Fourth, it would have been quite helpful to have contained some of the dialog between Gregory and Columbanus. I understand the problem, namely the Latin is the original, and translations are often poor, but a key point of insight would have been a better understanding of that dialog. Jonas may refer to it but it may very well be a powerful analysis on its own as a window to the new world of the individual versus the subject, the new world view versus the old world view.

As a general note amongst all of the books reviewed, the spelling of names is nowhere consistent. The problem is the multiplicity of sources. This of course is compounded when the spelling is from multiple languages as well.

Why is it useful to understand Columbanus? That in a sense is the underlying theme of each of the three books mentioned. It is especially critical to understand the period between 600-650 AD. As stated by Reynolds in his title, it was the Early Middle Ages, NOT the Dark Ages.

The reasons for better understanding Columbanus and this particular period in history are as follows:

1. Columbanus came from Ireland, and Ireland was never part of the Roman Empire. Thus his world view and that of all the free Irish at the time was not colored by Roman world views. They were never to that point a captive people, they were free and individuals. Thus they belonged to themselves and not to an Empire. Religion was personal.

2. Gregory came from Roman ruling class, a grandson of a Pope. Gregory was effectively at war with Constantinople and the Eastern Church. Gregory did not allegedly understand Greek, Columbanus did, and Gregory was in a sense the last Roman. The Empire was entrenched in Constantinople, and it looked eastward, worrying about Persia. Gregory looked westward, and saw opportunities in the Church in the tribes now living there.

3. Gregory is at odds with Columbanus and the Irish. Gregory was from a world of Groups, one belonged to Rome, one belonged to the Church, and one belonged to the Empire. One was never an individual. The clash was I believe at the heart of the battle between the two. The evidence of that is that Gregory sends an Italian, Augustine, to Canterbury to rule the Church, where logically the Church had a whole nation of educated scholars and devoted believers next door in Ireland. That act was the poke in the eye by Gregory against Columbanus and all Irish and was, in my opinion, the beginning of the battle between England and Ireland which continues to this day.

4. The Arian faith was that of a single God, devoid of the complexities placed and piled atop one another by the early Church Greek Fathers, including the Trinity. The Arians in many ways paralleled the same path seeing humanity in Jesus but not the complexity of Trinitarian Christology. In a sense there is a strong parallel between the Arian faith in a single God and the position of Christ as with the other single God beliefs that included Jesus. The relationship therefore between Columbanus and the Lombards, his work with Theodelinda, the Lombard Queen, and the ability to build his final open monastery in Bobbio was a tribute to his ability to cross the line while maintaining his faith.

5. Columbanus thus represents the advent of the individual, in the context of both the State and the Church. Although respectful of the Bishop of Rome, he showed no humbling before him when it came to discussions of faith. He also showed no bowing before Kings and Queens, he understood how to deal with them. In many ways he was an example of a modern man. There were no national boundaries for Columbanus.

6. In conclusion, I argue that there were no Dark Ages, just a transition from a salve based Empire transitioned into a Middle Ages, which in many ways was a long progression into modern society. The Dark Ages is a term used oftentimes in ignorance. Gibbon talks of the Fall of Rome, was there also a Fall of Carthage? We do not see the Fall of Egypt, Greece, and Persia. Why just Rome? I would argue it was in tune with the British Empire and its world view. Here with Columbanus we have the Birth of the Individual, a single person who can cross lands, tribes, cultures, languages, religions, and talk to a Pope as an equal in thought.

You Cannot Make This Up

The Hill reports on the plan proposed by two left wing Congress people. It is akin to taking on more ballast when you have split your bottom open. Who in their right mind would ever think of this.

The Hill states:

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Md.) on Thursday proposed a new tax on Wall Street trading that would raise more than $250 billion over 10 years in order to pay for a new plan to have the federal government offer dental health insurance coverage to millions of Americans.

The two members proposed legislation that would impose a "financial transactions" tax on equity trades that would collect $2.50 for every $10,000 traded, which would cover stock and bond trades. That language would reportedly raise an estimated $288 billion over 10 years, enough to cover the expected $25 billion per year cost of the new dental plan.

 What frankly is basic dental care. Back in the 1950s false teeth were common. Pull out the old ones and glue in the new. Cheap, it worked. Since then we have fluoride, and caries have gone near to zero. Dentists are depending on old folks.

Are we expected to pay for implants? That can be $8,000 per tooth! Are these characters real. Why not keep spending until we are not just broke ... but well Greece, really. I remember when I took a friend from out of the US across the New Hampshire - Vermont border and told him to have passport and visa at the ready. Perhaps that was not a real joke.

This is why people look at Congress and ask if they have a clue!

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Comments by FED Chairman

The FED Chairman spoke today regarding the economy. First the drags on the economy we all know:

However, some of the factors that have restrained the recovery persist. Notably, households and businesses still appear quite cautious about the economy. For example, according to surveys, households continue to rate their income prospects as relatively poor and do not expect economic conditions to improve significantly. Similarly, concerns about developments in Europe, U.S. fiscal policy, and the strength and sustainability of the recovery have left some firms hesitant to expand capacity. 

The depressed housing market has also been an important drag on the recovery. Despite historically low mortgage rates and high levels of affordability, many prospective homebuyers cannot obtain mortgages, as lending standards have tightened and the creditworthiness of many potential borrowers has been impaired. At the same time, a large stock of vacant houses continues to limit incentives for the construction of new homes, and a substantial backlog of foreclosures will likely add further to the supply of vacant homes. However, a few encouraging signs in housing have appeared recently, including some pickup in sales and construction, improvements in homebuilder sentiment, and the apparent stabilization of home prices in some areas. 

 And he continued:

Even as fiscal policymakers address the urgent issue of fiscal sustainability, a second objective should be to avoid unnecessarily impeding the current economic recovery. Indeed, a severe tightening of fiscal policy at the beginning of next year that is built into current law--the so-called fiscal cliff--would, if allowed to occur, pose a significant threat to the recovery. 

Moreover, uncertainty about the resolution of these fiscal issues could itself undermine business and household confidence. 

Fortunately, avoiding the fiscal cliff and achieving long-term fiscal sustainability are fully compatible and mutually reinforcing objectives. Preventing a sudden and severe contraction in fiscal policy will support the transition back to full employment, which should aid long-term fiscal sustainability. At the same time, a credible fiscal plan to put the federal budget on a longer-run sustainable path could help keep longer-term interest rates low and improve household and business confidence, thereby supporting improved economic performance today. 

A third objective for fiscal policy is to promote a stronger economy in the medium and long term through the careful design of tax policies and spending programs. 

To the fullest extent possible, federal tax and spending policies should increase incentives to work and save, encourage investments in workforce skills, stimulate private capital formation, promote research and development, and provide necessary public infrastructure. 

Although we cannot expect our economy to grow its way out of federal budget imbalances without significant adjustment in fiscal policies, a more productive economy will ease the tradeoffs faced by fiscal policymakers. 

 These are well known generalizations. Simply stated we are still in the tank and Congress and the current President must do something but not too much. The incentive comment is a truism. The alternative? Dis-incent this sector? There were no specifics here, no sharp end of the world warnings, and no look to what happens a la Europe.

There must be an adult somewhere who can lay down the warning that will activate the public response.