An Interesting Analysis

The above is an analysis of the infection of the virus in a city of 6 million and 100 sq mi. It assumes an interaction rate of 10% as we had defined before. It then assumes that distancing and interaction is reduce by 2.4% each day, namely people are not assembling in groups. The result is burnout of the infection.

It would be nice if somehow the politicians were a bit more attuned to the system. Instead of throwing stones in glass houses. Burnout can be achieved but only by reducing interaction rates. Also it can happen quickly if people follow the guidelines and panic does not ensue.

I also assume, and this is critical, that once infected and over the infection one is no longer an active agent. This could be a big assumption.

Let the Elderly Rot!

The Brits have always been ones for forceful execution of policies. From Ireland to India they have heavy handed ways of subduing people. Perhaps that is why they are a sinking island.

The current Government as announced by the BBC states:

Every Briton over the age of 70 will be told "within the coming weeks" to stay at home for an extended period to protect themselves from coronavirus. When it happens, they will be asked to stay home for "a very long time", Health Secretary Matt Hancock said. The government is to release social distancing advice for elderly people on Monday - but they will not yet be asked to self-isolate for long periods. Fourteen more people have died from the virus, bringing deaths in the UK to 35. Mr Hancock told the BBC that manufacturers were being asked to help produce medical equipment, such as ventilators, to help with an expected surge in demand by the NHS. He also said hotels could be converted into makeshift hospitals, while the government has begun negotiating with private healthcare providers to obtain thousands of extra beds in private hospitals.

 This is what you get with nationalized health. Do we send Sanders, Biden, Trump home for the duration?

How many of these elderly will die off from neglect? How many will not produce results which may save civilization? Not even the Germans in WWII were so demonic!

Hopefully our rights as Americans will be preserved. Yet one wonders with some of the Congress folk. Panic does evoke the best and the worst in humans. The Brits always were shining examples of the latter!

Pandemics for Dummies

I have been thinking about this pandemic and it occurred that there were many features which I have seen before. I thought it would be worthwhile to provide a descriptive model which is not dispositive. The intent is to try to delineate the key variables and how perhaps mitigation would work.

The following is a simple model:

It goes as follows:

1. Total Population is the total pop in some defined area. We start with a large metro area.

2. Population infected is the number of people infected day N. This becomes the factor which spreads the virus about.

3. Area is the sq miles in the city. Some are dense and some are sparse

4. We then get the Pops per sq mile

5. The important number is the prolixity density. We assume that is Pops/30 sq ft. No great reason other than proximity but it does drive the infection rate.

6. Number Infected. We always start with a Patient Zero

7. Time to Presentation. Here is the worst part about this virus as I understand it. The common cold, Rhinovirus, presents in 24-48 hours. Nose runs, throat sore, etc. This character enters most likely through the oral pharynx and then multiplies there but does not activate the immune system with the emission of cytokines. It works its way to the lungs where it is there it gets activated with the immune system. Interesting! Almost a sleuth type virus, wonder who engineered this one. The time to presentation may be 10 days thus allowing an infected person to spread.

8.  The Contact Activity Ratio is the amount of time an infected person gets to infectively interact with others.

9. Contact Ratio per day is the per person interaction resulting from the above

10. Using the above and the pops we get the Contacts per infected person per day

11. Infection Rate. This is key, it is the rate at which an infected person infects another uninfected person. This is a handshake, then a face contact just at the right time and then off we go! We can drive this down by lower person to person contact and personal sanitation.

12. New Infections results from before.

The following are some person observations guesses (see Li et al for data).

Finally we display the results from above:

Kind of what we have been seeing. Now we can then ask: how do we stop this? From this simple model many factors emerge:

1. Test: This means testing as many as possible as soon as possible. The ten day gestation and shedding time is the dominant factor. It keeps the virus in the community.

2. Reduce the Density by staying in some localized areas.

3. Avoid personal contact to get that Contact Ratio down.

4. Do not make personal contacts. No hand shaking and wash hands. The entry point is usually oral or through the eyes. Wear gloves! I saw a woman in Italy on television with a mask, bare hands and then stuffing some food inside the mask. Really!

5. Measure, measure, measure.

Hopefully this makes some sense. Each element in the pandemic model is controllable. Yet once Patient Zero gets started they are all too often careless, clueless and they go on. Also we must be aware of the Typhoid Mary syndrome, namely a viral carrier.

This is a personal opinion and observation. Its intent is to elucidate some key variables and actions. Good luck!

Oh yes, Happy Ides of March!

Reference: See Murray. Mathematical Biology, Springer, 1989, pp 610-650.

Facts, Science, and Politics

As China Daily remarks:

China reiterated on Friday that the origin of the novel coronavirus can be determined only by scientific and professional views. The remarks were made by Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang at a daily news briefing as comments have been made saying the virus might have been brought to Wuhan, the epicenter, by the United States military. Geng said that working together to combat the disease is the only correct choice for the international community as the virus knows no borders. Geng spoke in response to a statement on COVID-19 at a meeting of the G20 Sherpas, a policy discussion body. Geng said that there are discussions about the virus's origin, adding that around the world, including in the US, there are different views on that.

And we want our aspirins, antibiotics, and anti cancer drugs sourced from here? I have been concerned for a few years now that we have managed to outsource production of critical therapeutics to China but worse almost all our over the counter drugs. Just consider what can be put in those medications...rather not!

La Peste

Now that people are stuck at home perhaps one should consider has previous generations of humans dealt with such pandemics. Three come to mind. Boccaccio, Defoe, and Camus. For Boccaccio it was sitting it out with ten well off people outside of the city swapping stories of some bawdy nature. One should compare that with Chaucer, who had met Boccaccio on one of his Royal missions, who wrote of the common person on their journey to Canterbury.

The there is Defoe in London, and the complex detail of the handling of the plague there. Finally, the fictional plague in Algeria, by Camus, perhaps the most compelling telling of social collapse and the metaphor of plague for social instability.

Plagues, those due to rats and their accomplices or viruses and their attack mechanisms can evoke the best and worst of humans. Read Camus, it's on Kindle, then think who fits where. Most importantly think who the rats represent. You have time. Hopefully.

Good News, Bad News

OK, so the bond rates have collapsed. But let's look at the opportunity. Forget Washington, if the Hudson River Tunnel costs $20 billion lets get started. Here are the numbers:

First, from NJ Transit there are about 1 million rides per week day, 400,000 on Saturday and about 130,000 on Sunday. That is almost 300 million per year.

Now the tunnel is about $20 billion. So if we do a muni bond, 30 years and 2% yield that is about $3 per ride. I know it is a price increase but then we charge AMTRAK through the nose to use it! After all they have been the major problem all along and they are the FEDs.

So folks, get our Goldman Gov to work this out. I guess that was how he got rich in the first place.

Will this happen, no, think coronavirus management.