Monday, March 16, 2020

An Interesting Analysis

The above is an analysis of the infection of the virus in a city of 6 million and 100 sq mi. It assumes an interaction rate of 10% as we had defined before. It then assumes that distancing and interaction is reduce by 2.4% each day, namely people are not assembling in groups. The result is burnout of the infection.

It would be nice if somehow the politicians were a bit more attuned to the system. Instead of throwing stones in glass houses. Burnout can be achieved but only by reducing interaction rates. Also it can happen quickly if people follow the guidelines and panic does not ensue.

I also assume, and this is critical, that once infected and over the infection one is no longer an active agent. This could be a big assumption.