These "models" should, nay must. be made public, so that we can all see the assumptions. For example in the simple model above we assume we do not know a(t), such as a parameter in the pandemic model. We then apply a system identification routine to estimate a(t) based on the actual data as it is gathered and then adjust the model accordingly. I did this for Apollo guidance over fifty years ago, and my first book covered this. I suspect these models do not adjust accordingly.
The current scheme is we have some wizards secreting a model and whispering the result. NIH and CDC apparently do not have this expertise, nor would one expect in NIH, but CDC?
The solution is simple, set the models loose, let any and all who want to take a shot at them do so. Also we need the raw data in a readily useful form. The problem is that anyone truly competent in the field of dynamic estimation of systems with unknown variables can and should be involved. Otherwise it is a three card Monty game, no one trusts the numbers. Worse, we have experts in other fields mouthing off as if these numbers are from the mount. They are not.
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