The above is an interesting analysis. It is a model so take it for that. This is the daily % change versus day from start of the infection, assuming one person, and parameterized on the contact activity ratio. Thus lots of contact it doubles every day and after 26 days it starts to die out since everyone will be infected. In contrast if you consider a low contact activity ratio you get a slow drawn out curve that takes about 45 days to start to decline.
If one looks at NJ one may suspect this to be the case. However if you can drive down the activity ration, namely keep the teenagers off the street, you may get this down even faster. Perhaps that is what is starting in Morris County, hopefully.
Down with the Quarantine and Up with the Facts! To the Barricades, Allons, allons, mes enfants...toujours la liberte!
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