Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Worth a Read

From NEJM:

Given what historians have learned about past epidemics, it’s hard not to be jaded now. This particular coronavirus may be new, but we have seen it all before. A novel pathogen emerged in China? That’s no surprise: China has given rise to many past pandemics. People were slow to recognize the threat? That dynamic is what Camus described so well. Officials tried to suppress early warnings? Of course. Governments have reacted with authoritarian interventions? They often do — though the scale of China’s interventions may be unprecedented. A quarantine fails to contain the pathogen? That has happened more often than not, especially with pathogens like influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 that render people contagious before they’re symptomatic. This does not mean that interventions are futile. When influenza struck the United States in 1918, different cities responded in different ways. Some were able to learn from the mistakes of those that had been hit first. Cities that implemented stringent controls, including school closures, bans on public gathering, and other forms of isolation or quarantine, slowed the course of the epidemic and reduced total mortality. China’s aggressive response may have delayed the global spread of the current outbreak.

 History has a way of repeating. Yet one must remember:

"Delay is the deadliest form of denial" Ken Curtin.