Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Interesting Epidemiological Data

We are tracking the New Jersey epidemiological data by county. The chart below is the incidence of total cases by county versus population density per county.
What is interesting is that income is a greater determinant than density! This seems to hold for New York City area as well. It appears to be travel related. Specifically travel but middle income people.

The New Jersey total per day are:

The above matches my previous analyses fairly well.

Some observations:

1. New contacts via travel are more of a determinant than density

2. The shelter in place paradigm is punitive on the lower income individuals who seem to be at materially lower risk

3. Testing is still critical and NJ has been poor in their implementation, so what else is new.

4. I still see gatherings of multiple middle class teenagers which are living breeding grounds. A parent comes in from travel infected passes it to children and off they go. One could call it reckless.