On the one hand, then on the other...

The NY Times reports on a Brit analysis of the impact of the Wuhan Virus. We have been doing a similar analysis as noted herein and the issue in the US is a bit different. Take West Virginia. Still as of last night uninfected. The issue is population density and migration of the virus. Frankly it is surprising but some folks are talking of building a wall on the Potomac and Shenandoah and the Ohio rivers to keep folks from coming into the state. I think it is morgue humor but I leave that to others.

The Brit study may clearly apply to London, Manchester etc and also New York and other major US cities. There are sections of the US where we still have significant separation and low rates of entry. The July/August dates also I believe assume slow mitigation. This changes dramatically with drastic mitigation. Namely, May/June if what is now happening is sustained.

There is always the what-if issues at hand. Fear and panic can be worse than the disease itself. Go 15 miles from New York City and individual separation increases, if an only if people follow guidelines.

Now back to the NY Times piece. One would assume that responsible reporting would include a broader analysis of the issue. Unfortunately the press in my opinion is making much of this worse. But we shall see.