An Interesting View

 In a recent Nature piece the author notes:

Rather often, I go to a research talk and feel drowned in data. Some speakers seem to think they must unleash a tsunami of data if they are to be taken seriously. The framing is neglected, along with why the data are being collected; what hypotheses are being tested; what ideas are emerging. Researchers seem reluctant to come to biological conclusions or present new ideas. The same occurs in written publications. It is as if speculation about what the data might mean and the discussion of ideas are not quite ‘proper’.

The biological sciences are dominated by presentations of slides jammed with data. The scientists, especially if younger, will wave their arms in an attempt to establish the meaning of these jumbled data points. The author continues:

I have a different view: description and data collection are necessary but insufficient. Ideas, even tentative ones, are also needed, along with the recognition that ideas will change as facts and arguments accumulate...The next step is to extract knowledge from the data. To refocus on that goal, we must improve our working processes, placing a greater emphasis on theory and shifting our research culture...How? Embed engineers and experimentalists who are developing new technologies and methods deeply into the biological problems. It is through deep familiarity with the biology — not simply a drive to collect more and more data — that important questions will be asked.

 My view over the past decade is to examine the data as parts of a system. One should have a discussion comparable to what was done in communications almost a century ago. Use the knowledge of the electron, of metals, of vacuums, and use them synergistically to build a radio. Use the data from a systems perspective, examine the problem as an integrated whole, using the data to connect the elements to the next level. Build across not just dig deeper.

Take cancer as an example. Twenty years ago we focused on internal pathway controls such a those in CML. Then move to immune control focusing on cell targets.But at each step we find other countervailing factors such as the protective ability of the tumor micro environment, miRNAs, glycans, epigenetic factors, and the list goes on. What is take the list and look at it as an integrated system, with levers to control. Let the deep dives continue but they would assist in building a better integrated system.

Just a thought.

Another Interesting Set of Numbers

 As Covid expands we have been inundated with numbers all over the place. Let me give a simple example for NJ.

1. The NJ population is roughly 9 million

2. There has been roughly 1 million cases so we have 1 million with natural immunity

3. We have 6.3 million who are vaccinated

4. That is a total of 7.3 million

5. That means there are 1.7 million vulnerable

6. But based upon other data we lnow that there are likely another 0.7 million who have natural immunity and not reported.

7. Thus we have a vulnerable base of 1 million

8.We see about 2000 cases per day

9. Thus in 500 days we would have total immunity if things continue

10. That means that sometime in late 2022 we have total immunity if no one else is vaccinated

11. However we are vaccinating 70,000 per day!

12. Thus in roughly 15 more days we are finished, well before a natural takeover

13. So what is the problem?

Beware the DNS Provider!

 Interesting recent effect when trying to download a paper on certain cancer research. I have downloaded thousands from this site over the years but as of today my assigned DNS decided that I should not do this anymore. Now this is hardly political, T cell aspects of cancer immunotherapy, but alas some useless gnome decided to filter out my access. They called it malware. It was a pdf paper from an accredited journal provider!

Now the DNS, or domain name server, is a device that takes your address and converts it to an IP format to then go over the Internet. It so happens that they also have look-up tables to decide what is an acceptable and non-acceptable IP destination. The DNS, often some unknown obscure  entity become a censor. You never knew they were there, but if they do not like you they block you. China is the King of DNS operators. But for some reason the US players have entered the game. The assert for example that the site you want has malware. Even if there is no reason to assert this.

I tried telling them, the DNS entity in question, as such but alas they decided to inhibit my access to knowledge. I was able to redirect to another DNS but I doubt that many could do that.

It is shocking that the reach of these controllers of speech have now reached into fundamental research. There is no law to inhibit this behavior. They are censoring what can be seen on the Internet. Not because it is illegal but because they deem it inappropriate. Why one may ask is a set of papers on cancer immunotherapy inappropriate? Why does this DNS provider deem them as such. It is now not just the Silicon Valley elites but the DNS providers who get in between them and you. They are nameless players who control what you can see and what you cannot.

Pity!

Take a Breath!

 With on line technical conferences I have noticed the younger the presenter the more rapidly they speak and the more assertive they are. They seem never to take a breath and to speak in such a manner to tell you everything they know. Ironically the older more knowledgeable the speaker the more organized and more well paced are their speech.

Regrettably this is a generational issue. Pity!

NJ 2021 09 11

 Frankly things are not getting better, Let us look at the numbers. First, the doubling time in NJ. One problem is the massive inaccuracy in numbers reflected in the jump. It does appear flat just above 250 days.

The NJ incidence remains high. Remember we have more than 75% of the population vaccinated plus 15% previously infected, Thus this number reflects 10% of the population. It would be useful from a Public Health perspective to identify this class. The imperial "we" from DC is useless, we need to be informed with facts.

The county shows the same spikes.

The infections per PoP by county is below.

The infections per sq mile is below. It is clear we have hot spots.

Mortality continues. Even in LTC which is criminal!

The county stats by town are below.

The town prevalence is below. Again the 75% plus 15% number applies so we have the equivalent of 300 which is 4 times the peak number last winter! Who are these morons!

The town and county doubling times are below

Nationally we have the infections per vulnerable base. Part of the CDC data problem is the CDC does not work weekends and holidays! And we pay these laggards! No wonder we have a Federal mess.

Vaccinations run about 1 million per day. Suggestion, try Darwin awards for those infected. Also if hospitalized and not vaccinated you get to pay!

NJ 2021 09 04

 Labor Day weekend and the crowds are out there. In stores we see masks and outside in the wind and sun not so many. But remember for a mask to work it must be clean and not reused and changed each time it is removed. Mask hygiene is abysmal.

First death rates are high. It is not the older folks but the younger, 30-40. Darwin awards for all.

 

The county rates are increasing amongst the 30-40 group.

Whereas the state overall is declining.

Mortality is still high

The town has increase due to the 30-40 group.

The town doublong time is increasing but due to a high incidence.

Vaccines are averaging above 1 million per day

However the normalized incidence is very high.