Data for housing starts is available from Census summary and in detail. We summarize the data here.
First we examine the Data for Total Starts per month for this period. This is shown below. It is clear that there is the slide and that the slide appears to be continuing and possibly levelling off albeit at a very low level. The slight increase is from the northeast which we show later.
Now we look at the data for the four regions on a monthly basis. The south, dominated by Florida and the west with California and Arizona and Nevada show the greatest decline and dominate the total results. The northeast is down significantly as well but at a much lower base level. The Midwest is leveling off at the low level. The west does show the greatest percent decrease. However the west appears to be levelling off in Q1 2009. The overhang of existing properties will still be the drag on all of this data.
Now we look at the total data from a quarterly basis. The curve fit does show a peaking and then the collapse. This gives a bit of a different view than the monthly data and perhaps this is an artifact of that small period of growth in the northeast.
Finally we look at the quarterly data from a regional basis but presented differently. There is some seasonal variability as well and if that holds perhaps one may see either a leveling or increase in Q3 of this year. Again the inventory is the drag.
First we examine the Data for Total Starts per month for this period. This is shown below. It is clear that there is the slide and that the slide appears to be continuing and possibly levelling off albeit at a very low level. The slight increase is from the northeast which we show later.
Now we look at the data for the four regions on a monthly basis. The south, dominated by Florida and the west with California and Arizona and Nevada show the greatest decline and dominate the total results. The northeast is down significantly as well but at a much lower base level. The Midwest is leveling off at the low level. The west does show the greatest percent decrease. However the west appears to be levelling off in Q1 2009. The overhang of existing properties will still be the drag on all of this data.
Now we look at the total data from a quarterly basis. The curve fit does show a peaking and then the collapse. This gives a bit of a different view than the monthly data and perhaps this is an artifact of that small period of growth in the northeast.
Finally we look at the quarterly data from a regional basis but presented differently. There is some seasonal variability as well and if that holds perhaps one may see either a leveling or increase in Q3 of this year. Again the inventory is the drag.
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