The CBO Cost Estimates are presented below. We show Parts A,B and D as well as the total. The growth in the total is substantial over the period to 2018 dominated by the inflow of the Baby Boomers.
The total participants are presented below. These are the Baby Boomers referred to above. One should remember that the enrollment starts at 65 and that the average life span for a male is about 75 and a female 79. Thus there will be a dominance of females receiving benefits even if many had not contributed as much as the males, although that is shifting as the younger group of working females is included. What that means is as we approach 2018 the females will have contributed equal to the males so the "free rider" status which may have been attributed before is no longer the case. All Medicare participants will have contributed as we have discussed before.
The cost per participant calculated from the above two is presented below. Given our previous analyses and the above comments regarding contributing participants, we see that the expenditures for the period thru 2018 are still less than the contributions from participants!
We thus argue that the Medicare participants will have contributed substantially in excess of their withdrawals by 2018 and that the excess has been spent by the Government rather than being used as specified. In addition we assumed in our earlier calculation a 20 year life for males and females post 65 and we know that it is substantially lower, only 10 for males and 14 for females. This makes the contribution excess even greater. This clear cold fact must become an element in the debate, and not a victim.
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