Bob Metcalfe wrote an article in the Wall Street Journal extolling the use of small nuclear generators. The principle if one extends it a bit is akin to the use of Japanese mini mills in the 1980s for steel production. Use 100 MW generators but use many of them in many locations. A good idea but well we face the Government again! The NRC is the great "NO!" and if they don't do it just wait for the EPA.
But the use of distributed power generation combined with smart grids makes sense. Consider the following propositions. First regarding the classic energy approach and then the fully distributed approach.
I Classic Energy
In the world of classic energy or power generation the assumption is that there is great scale economy in building a super large plant which has a maximum capacity of say 500 MW. We run the plant up to the max depending on the demand. If the demand exceeds the plant capacity we literally call to others to shift their capacity to us so we can meet the demand. If we cannot get the excess capacity shifted then we start a brown out. If we produce too much electricity it just disappears. Yet we always try to stay ahead of the curve by over building and over producing. There is not smart national grid. Remember you are dealing with power engineers, they stopped making them fifty years ago!
II Smart Grid Big Plants
This is the next step. This takes the large power plants and then connects them with a "smart grid" which automatically estimates demand and is continually load balancing. Each plant runs at the most efficient level and the power is distributed where it will be used with the least waste. Waste is still there.
This is shown below as a classic model.
III Local Generation and Smart Grid
Now consider the Metcalfe idea but move it down scale even more. Assume we let everyone have solar roofs, windmills, and maybe even small nuclear generators! I am kidding o the last one, I think. But we can reduce generation to local levels, and we then like in the Internet move the intelligence, in this case the generation, to the edge of the network, in this case the grid. Consider the picture shown below:
I have used "routers" here metaphorically to show how they could be connected. The local grid has many small generators, moving down scale as much as we want. Take the solar program in northern New Hampshire. A 1,200 sq foot roof can generate enough power, 2 KW, to power several homes for basic use. Then this may cost $20,000. But the Feds pay $6,000, the state $8,000 and the electrical company $4,000. It costs the homeowner $2,000! The excess power goes onto a smart local grid and if there is no power it gets power from the grid. If you had a really smart grid you could dramatically reduce you excess peak requirement. And the solar has no CO2!
IV Local Power, Smart Local Grid, Super Smart National Grid
Now think of the next case where we interconnect these little guys and create a national grid, using wind where there is wind and solar where there is solar. We get what is shown below.
This is the power version of the Internet. Will this work, certainly. But I really doubt that the GEs and IBMs will ever conceive this. This is an Internet metaphor. Remember SNA and IBM, you do if you ever tried to network thirty years ago. SNA no longer exists. And GE, good diesels and washing machines but not a state of the art shop. I remember after my PhD from MIT speaking to someone at GE ho suggested I consider going there, for what reason I really never knew, but I was told I would have to be trained on how to design, the GE way, a washing machine. Perhaps of some use if you did that but not what my multiple degrees would stand.
The challenge is to find the creative "team" to do this. We need to find a Bob Kahn of the smart grid. Does he even exist in today's world, could he ever do at ARPA now what Bob did at ARPA then. Would not the powers to be at GE and IBM and the power companies kill whatever chance they would have in the political environment we have in Washington. Perhaps this is what one could do in Finland, or the Czech Republic, two good sized smart countries which could be catalysts for this opportunity. Just a thought, I hope my old friends in Prague are listening, if you did this the world would come knocking!
Thanks to my good friend Lloyd Nirenberg for insights in this area.
But the use of distributed power generation combined with smart grids makes sense. Consider the following propositions. First regarding the classic energy approach and then the fully distributed approach.
I Classic Energy
In the world of classic energy or power generation the assumption is that there is great scale economy in building a super large plant which has a maximum capacity of say 500 MW. We run the plant up to the max depending on the demand. If the demand exceeds the plant capacity we literally call to others to shift their capacity to us so we can meet the demand. If we cannot get the excess capacity shifted then we start a brown out. If we produce too much electricity it just disappears. Yet we always try to stay ahead of the curve by over building and over producing. There is not smart national grid. Remember you are dealing with power engineers, they stopped making them fifty years ago!
II Smart Grid Big Plants
This is the next step. This takes the large power plants and then connects them with a "smart grid" which automatically estimates demand and is continually load balancing. Each plant runs at the most efficient level and the power is distributed where it will be used with the least waste. Waste is still there.
This is shown below as a classic model.
III Local Generation and Smart Grid
Now consider the Metcalfe idea but move it down scale even more. Assume we let everyone have solar roofs, windmills, and maybe even small nuclear generators! I am kidding o the last one, I think. But we can reduce generation to local levels, and we then like in the Internet move the intelligence, in this case the generation, to the edge of the network, in this case the grid. Consider the picture shown below:
I have used "routers" here metaphorically to show how they could be connected. The local grid has many small generators, moving down scale as much as we want. Take the solar program in northern New Hampshire. A 1,200 sq foot roof can generate enough power, 2 KW, to power several homes for basic use. Then this may cost $20,000. But the Feds pay $6,000, the state $8,000 and the electrical company $4,000. It costs the homeowner $2,000! The excess power goes onto a smart local grid and if there is no power it gets power from the grid. If you had a really smart grid you could dramatically reduce you excess peak requirement. And the solar has no CO2!
IV Local Power, Smart Local Grid, Super Smart National Grid
Now think of the next case where we interconnect these little guys and create a national grid, using wind where there is wind and solar where there is solar. We get what is shown below.
This is the power version of the Internet. Will this work, certainly. But I really doubt that the GEs and IBMs will ever conceive this. This is an Internet metaphor. Remember SNA and IBM, you do if you ever tried to network thirty years ago. SNA no longer exists. And GE, good diesels and washing machines but not a state of the art shop. I remember after my PhD from MIT speaking to someone at GE ho suggested I consider going there, for what reason I really never knew, but I was told I would have to be trained on how to design, the GE way, a washing machine. Perhaps of some use if you did that but not what my multiple degrees would stand.
The challenge is to find the creative "team" to do this. We need to find a Bob Kahn of the smart grid. Does he even exist in today's world, could he ever do at ARPA now what Bob did at ARPA then. Would not the powers to be at GE and IBM and the power companies kill whatever chance they would have in the political environment we have in Washington. Perhaps this is what one could do in Finland, or the Czech Republic, two good sized smart countries which could be catalysts for this opportunity. Just a thought, I hope my old friends in Prague are listening, if you did this the world would come knocking!
Thanks to my good friend Lloyd Nirenberg for insights in this area.
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