The Nuclear Issue and Russia

I have a somewhat different view of Russia and the nuclear issue than many others. In the late 70s I was a senior technical advisor to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty ("CTBT") negotiations between the US, UK and USSR. A tense time and a strange set of negotiations, for it was under the Carter presidency and Brzezinski who controlled the NSC. In my experience and in my opinion Brzezinski was merely doing the bidding of Carter who wanted a treaty at any cost, and that meant that he would give away whatever it was necessary. Fortunately we never completed the treaty.

I spent time with the Russian team and it was clear that the Russians knew what Carter wanted and they played the game of getting the most from the negotiations team. Admiral Tom Davies headed up the ACDA group on this treaty, while Admiral Turner headed the CIA and Admiral Inman the NSA. Turner had managed to almost eliminate human intelligence at the request of Carter and this led to the loss of intel on Iran and we still live with the results and loss of human intel on Russian actions which as corrected under Reagan.

I then spent almost a decade in an out of Moscow where I had a subsidiary of my company which we had headquartered in Prague. The Russian were competent, capable, and in many was inscrutable. You were never presented with problems, just issues or concerns. It took time to learn how to read them. It took time, and the use of Russian was a key part of that process. Thus I see the Russian as one who worked inside as well as an adversary. My view is based on a cold war relationship. The current President does not have that view.

In the trip to Moscow by the current President he seems to be focusing on Medvedev and little on Putin. The Moscow Press suggests strongly that he have a "walk in the woods" with Putin. The article states:

"U.S. President Barack Obama faces a major test of his leadership with his trip to Moscow to meet with Russian leaders. He has invested considerable political capital in the effort to “reset” relations with Russia, yet Moscow’s interests in such a “reset” remain dubious at best. While I have been a strong advocate of the spirit of “pressing the reset button” to improve U.S.-Russian relations, there is a flaw in the logic. The logic of “reset” rests on the assumption there is new leadership in Washington and Moscow ready to reconsider past policies, but the reality is that assumption is only true in Washington.

There should be no illusions about where ultimate decision-making authority in Russia resides today. The “tandem” is a fiction, of course. Obama must operate under the assumption that on any issue of importance to him — from nuclear arms reductions to Afghanistan to Iran — the ultimate arbiter for Russian policy is Putin."

Indeed that is true, as Putin was sponsored by General Ivanov we see Medvedev is both sponsored and focused by Putin. Putin is a shrewd and insightful player in the field of politics. He is never seen smiling in the western press but he does so behind the scenes and frequently the smiles are the result of his handling of the west. The current US President brings Chicago politics but Putin brings the best of the KGB Russian mind.

But what of the proposed reduction. Not a bad idea since most of the delivery vehicles are aged and the war heads near being useless. The nuclear warheads lose capability in time, the core material decays. In addition we most likely no longer need mutually assured destruction, but we need tactical and clean capabilities, which means more R&D and testing. Hopefully we do not agree to stop that. A small tactical neutron based system ("TNBS") would be of great use in certain areas. Massive multi-war head systems are there for mutual deterrence only. There may always be a need for the TNBS. The Korea concern represents one of the uses.