We have been looking at the mortgage data, delayed as it may be, except from the FED, and the trend does not look exceptionally good, albeit only thru Q2 of 2009. First we see the total amount in mortgages has continued to decline as shown below thru Q2 2009. We anticipate this to continue for two obvious reasons. First home prices are declining so that the amount needed is itself declining. Second the terms for obtaining a mortgage are increasing thus moving people from the mortgage pool.
Next we look at the default rates thru Q2. These are also increasing again and thus there will continue to be downward pressure on the home market. In fact there is clear deflation on home prices. This may soon have a downward pressure on real estate taxes. Strangely enough the Democrats are moving for a 12 month school year which will just drive up real estate taxes another 40% and will destroy the leisure industry. One sees the intent to have unions dominate the economy and this most likely will destroy the economy totally! But more for that later.
We also track the percent ARM and Fixed Rate Mortgages. These are shown below. The trend continues and it shows that a continuous decline in fixed rates is seen.
Finally we show the mortgages by type. There is an aberration in the last entry since it is for Q1 2009 and not annual. The trends continue what we had discussed in White Paper 41 last December when we presented the overall view of the debt situation.
Next we look at the default rates thru Q2. These are also increasing again and thus there will continue to be downward pressure on the home market. In fact there is clear deflation on home prices. This may soon have a downward pressure on real estate taxes. Strangely enough the Democrats are moving for a 12 month school year which will just drive up real estate taxes another 40% and will destroy the leisure industry. One sees the intent to have unions dominate the economy and this most likely will destroy the economy totally! But more for that later.
We also track the percent ARM and Fixed Rate Mortgages. These are shown below. The trend continues and it shows that a continuous decline in fixed rates is seen.
Finally we show the mortgages by type. There is an aberration in the last entry since it is for Q1 2009 and not annual. The trends continue what we had discussed in White Paper 41 last December when we presented the overall view of the debt situation.
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