The St Louis Fed has released the second ISM index for non manufacturing today and we depict the two below.
The improvement in both manufacturing and non manufacturing is progressing nicely since May and many have stated that this is a good leading indicator of a Recession turn around. Yet we are still concerned as to the debt problems in both commercial real estate and high yield debt. We suggest that there may be a second dip if either or both of these are exacerbated. In our last December paper we stated that Sirius and Fairpoint would be typical of the companies facing the high yield debt problem. Sirius is still some what of the walking dead type and Fairpoint is being prepared for burial. These were but two of over 12o we were watching. Close to $1.5T in
The improvement in both manufacturing and non manufacturing is progressing nicely since May and many have stated that this is a good leading indicator of a Recession turn around. Yet we are still concerned as to the debt problems in both commercial real estate and high yield debt. We suggest that there may be a second dip if either or both of these are exacerbated. In our last December paper we stated that Sirius and Fairpoint would be typical of the companies facing the high yield debt problem. Sirius is still some what of the walking dead type and Fairpoint is being prepared for burial. These were but two of over 12o we were watching. Close to $1.5T in
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