Blue Water Navies, Are We Going Thru the 1930s Again?

The CNO has been quoted in the Hill giving a view of the future of the Navy. They state as follows:

During the early 2000s, the Navy had a much smaller role in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, leading military experts — and some service officials — to wonder how the service would fit into future U.S. combat operations....Several years later, the Navy’s slate of missions is becoming clear. The sea service has spent years building up its tactical aviation fleet, enhancing its information operations abilities and moving toward unmanned craft that operate beneath the ocean’s surface, Adm. Gary Roughead, chief of naval operations (CNO), said Thursday....

In an era when defense budgets are expected to remain flat or shrink, some lawmakers and defense analysts say it is unlikely the Navy will ever have the 313 ships it says are needed. The fleet is now at 285 ships, Roughead said Thursday.... Employing more crewless underwater drones is one way to help offset a smaller fleet, Roughead noted.

Yes they are at now 285 ships, of which roughly 1/3 to 1/2 are at sea at any one time and there may be three to five carrier groups. Imagine Okinawa where a ship was lost per hour for weeks! We would be out of ships real quickly. One need look only at WW II destroyer production of say Fletcher Class. Very complex at its time technically. Theye were made in months. Also they could be destroyed in minutes.

Now look at China Daily which states:

By 2020, a total of 15,000 personnel, compared with 9,000 now, will serve in the China Maritime Surveillance (CMS) force under the State Oceanic Administration, a senior official with the CMS, who declined to be identified, told China Daily.The CMS air arm will be increased to 16 planes and the patrol fleet will have 350 vessels during the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015), the official said, adding that the fleet will have more than 520 vessels by 2020. Currently, nine aircraft, more than 260 surveillance vessels and 280 law enforcement vehicles are in operation. The CMS launched the construction of 36 patrol ships and 54 speedboats last year, the official said.The expansion plan was unveiled as China's biggest civilian maritime patrol ship was sent into the South China Sea to protect national "rights and sovereignty".China's offshore surveillance force will be beefed up to ensure that the country's maritime interests are fully protected amid increasing disputes with its neighbors.

We in the US seem to going in the opposite direction. The South China Sea will become a hot-bed of activity. Ports in China on the South China Sea are expanding and China is exercising its hegemony there to the detriment of countries like Vietnam.

Now one should look at an article in the Naval Institute Naval History in June 2001 by Frank entitled Picking Winners. It recounts the secret list kept by FDR on the then top ranking Navy Admirals, the Navy Departments list of leaders. Nimitz was not there nor was Spruance! Many who were there were soon jettisoned. Political planners often work to preserve their position. As Frank states:

It is vital in assessing the omission of Admiral Chester W. Nimitz and Rear Admiral Raymond A. Spruance from the “most competent” list not to “read back” from the battles of the Coral Sea and Midway or even later events to their stature in the eyes of the members of the selection board in early March 1942.... In a late-March 1942 letter to his wife, Catherine, Nimitz confided: “Ever so many people were enthusiastic for me at the start but when things do not move fast enough they sour on me. I will be lucky to last six months. The public may demand action and results faster than I can produce.” This missive raises the tantalizing possibility that Nimitz had somehow learned of the secret flag selection board results.... Spruance was a very junior cruiser division commander who had enjoyed no opportunity for significant independent command. He carried the reputation in the small world of the Navy’s flag ranks as a quiet-spoken theorist from his tours at the Naval War College. A few weeks later, before Midway, King would press Spruance on Nimitz as a chief of staff with that reputation in mind. Those credentials scarcely warranted anointment as one of the elite flag officers in the Navy.

 
War, if and when it comes, with a good President, finds the true leaders. Having researched this for one of my books, DD 649,  I found that Harry Hopkins played a significant role in feeding FDR the right people and FDR somehow had the genius to find and promote them.

Hopefully if push comes to shove we can do the same again. In many ways it looks as if we are entering the 1930s again. Watch out for the 1940s.